日本社会老年犯数量加速上升

 Japan’s prison system is being driven to budgetary crisis by demographics, a welfare shortfall and a new, pernicious breed of villain¹: the recidivist retiree. And the silver-haired crooks², say academics, are desperate to be behind bars.

日本的监狱系统正因人口结构、福利缺口以及新的恶棍人群——退休惯犯——而陷入预算危机。而学者称，这些满头银发的坏蛋迫切希望坐牢。

Crime figures show that about 35 per cent of shoplifting offences are committed by people over 60. Within that age bracket, 40 per cent of repeat offenders³ have committed the same crime more than six times.

犯罪数据显示，约35%的入店行窃罪行由60岁以上的人犯下。在这个年龄组内，40%的惯犯犯相同罪行的次数超过6次。

There is good reason, concludes a new report, to suspect that the shoplifting crime wave in particular represents an attempt by those convicted to end up in prison — an institution that offers free food, accommodation and healthcare.

一项新报告得出结论称，有充分理由怀疑，入店行窃犯罪案件高发，尤其代表了罪犯有意进入提供免费食物、住宿以及医疗服务的监狱。

The mathematics of recidivism⁴ are gloomily compelling for the would-be convict. Even with a frugal⁵ diet and dirt-cheap accommodation, a single Japanese retiree with minimal⁶ savings⁷ has living costs more than 25 per cent higher than the meagre basic state pension of Y780,000 ($6,900) a year, according a study on the economics of elderly crime by Michael Newman of Tokyo-based research house Custom Products Research.

惯犯的盘算对于潜在罪犯来说令人沮丧地充满吸引力。由总部位于东京的研究机构Custom Products Research的迈克尔?纽曼(Michael Newman)对老年犯罪的经济分析所作的研究称，即使饮食节俭、住宿非常便宜，日本单身退休人员如果存款较少，其生活成本也比微薄的基本国家养老金（每年78万日元，合6900美元）高25%。

Even the theft of a Y200 sandwich can earn a two-year prison sentence, say academics, at an Y8.4m cost to the state.

学者们表示，即使是偷窃一份200日元的三明治，就可以换取两年的有期徒刑，给国家带来840万日元的成本。

The geriatric crime wave is accelerating, and analysts⁸ note that the Japanese prison system — newly expanded and at about 70 per cent occupancy — is being prepared for decades of increases. Between 1991 and 2013, the latest year for which the Ministry⁹ of Justice publishes figures, the number of elderly inmates¹⁰ in jail for repeating the same offence six times has climbed 460 per cent.

老年犯罪案件高发趋势正在加速，同时分析人士指出，最近扩大了规模、入住率约为70%的日本监狱系统，正准备好迎接未来数十年罪犯人数增加。1991年至2013年（日本法务省已发表数据的最近一个年份）期间，重复犯相同罪行超过6次的正在服刑的老年罪犯人数攀升了460%。

The surging rates of crime among the elderly disguise a darker trend than mere¹¹ contempt for the law, say economists¹² and criminologists. Retiree crime is rising more quickly than the general demographic ascent¹³ into old age that will put 40 per cent of the Japanese population over 65 by the year 2060.

经济学家和犯罪学家称，老年人犯罪率上升掩饰了一个比单纯蔑视法律更加阴暗的趋势。退休人员犯罪的上升速度超过人口老龄化趋势——到2060年40%的日本人年龄将在65岁以上。

Akio Doteuchi, a senior researcher on social development at the NLI Research Institute in Tokyo, expects the ratio of repeat offenders to continue rising.

东京日生基础研究所(NLI Research Institute)的社会发展高级研究员土堤内昭雄(Akio Doteuchi)预计，惯犯比例将继续上升。

“The social situation in Japan has forced the elderly into the need to commit crime,” he says. “The ratio of people who receive public assistance is highest since the end of the war. About 40 per cent of the elderly live alone. It’s a vicious circle. They leave prison, they don’t have money or family so they turn immediately to crime.”

“日本的社会形势迫使老年人不得不走向犯罪，”他称，“如今接受社会救助的人口比例达到战后以来最高水平。约有40%的老年人独自生活。这是一个恶性循环。出狱后，他们既没有钱也没有家人，因此他们会立即再次犯罪。”

The crime figures, he adds, expose the strained calculus¹⁴ of the government’s welfare spending as the world’s second-biggest economy ages. Prison, no matter how the spreadsheets are run, is a woefully inefficient¹⁵ way for the government to target welfare spending at those who most need it.

他补充称，犯罪数据显示出，随着全球第三大经济体人口老龄化加剧，日本政府在福利支出方面捉襟见肘。无论电子数据表如何运作，监狱都是政府把福利支出对准最需要帮助的群体的效率极其低下的方式。

Attempts to find ways to release elderly prisoners early have encountered insurmountable legal problems, Mr Doteuchi says, and the prison system as a whole will eventually be overrun by elderly inmates.

土堤内昭雄称，设法提早释放老年犯的企图遇到了难以逾越的法律问题，监狱系统作为一个整体最终将被老年囚犯占领。

1 villain   

n.反派演员，反面人物；恶棍；问题的起因

参考例句：

• He was cast as the villain in the play.他在戏里扮演反面角色。
• The man who played the villain acted very well.扮演恶棍的那个男演员演得很好。

2 crooks   

n.骗子( crook的名词复数 )；罪犯；弯曲部分；（牧羊人或主教用的）弯拐杖v.弯成钩形( crook的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The police are getting after the crooks in the city. 警察在城里追捕小偷。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cops got the crooks. 警察捉到了那些罪犯。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 offenders   

n.冒犯者( offender的名词复数 )；犯规者；罪犯；妨害…的人（或事物）

参考例句：

• Long prison sentences can be a very effective deterrent for offenders. 判处长期徒刑可对违法者起到强有力的威慑作用。
• Purposeful work is an important part of the regime for young offenders. 使从事有意义的劳动是管理少年犯的重要方法。

4 recidivism   

n.累犯，再犯

参考例句：

• Many areas and work units have experienced no recidivism at all for as long as ten or more years.不少地区和单位出现了连续几年、十几年没有发生重新犯罪的好典型。
• It needs to supplement the personality factor to confirm the ordinary recidivism.在普通累犯成立的条件中,应增加罪犯的人格因素。

5 frugal   

adj.节俭的，节约的，少量的，微量的

参考例句：

• He was a VIP,but he had a frugal life.他是位要人，但生活俭朴。
• The old woman is frugal to the extreme.那老妇人节约到了极点。

6 minimal   

adj.尽可能少的，最小的

参考例句：

• They referred to this kind of art as minimal art.他们把这种艺术叫微型艺术。
• I stayed with friends, so my expenses were minimal.我住在朋友家，所以我的花费很小。

7 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

10 inmates   

n.囚犯( inmate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• One of the inmates has escaped. 被收容的人中有一个逃跑了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The inmates were moved to an undisclosed location. 监狱里的囚犯被转移到一个秘密处所。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

12 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 ascent   

n.(声望或地位)提高；上升，升高；登高

参考例句：

• His rapid ascent in the social scale was surprising.他的社会地位提高之迅速令人吃惊。
• Burke pushed the button and the elevator began its slow ascent.伯克按动电钮，电梯开始缓慢上升。

14 calculus   

n.微积分；结石

参考例句：

• This is a problem where calculus won't help at all.对于这一题，微积分一点也用不上。
• After studying differential calculus you will be able to solve these mathematical problems.学了微积分之后，你们就能够解这些数学题了。

15 inefficient   

adj.效率低的，无效的

参考例句：

• The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money.低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
• Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme.他们的通讯系统效率非常差。