2016年经济学人 私有化 9万亿美元的大拍卖

 

Leaders

社论精粹

Privatisation

私有化

The $9 trillion sale

9万亿美元的大拍卖

Governments should launch a new wave of privatisations, this time centred on property

富裕国家的政府应当再掀起一股私有化浪潮，这次应当把重点放在土地和房产上。

IMAGINE you were heavily in debt, owned a large portfolio¹ of equities² and under-used property and were having trouble cutting your spending—much like most Western governments. Wouldn't you think of offloading some of your assets?

设想一下：如果你守着金山银山，却还在为筹钱还债而苦恼，你会怎么办呢？答案是：卖掉其中的一部分，然后再用得到的钱还债不就行了吗。其实，这也是那些债务缠身的富国应该采取的一个办法。卖掉一些“家底”—所持公司的股权、已经用不着的房产，或者是尚未开发的土地，把政府资产私有化，紧缩的烦恼不就可以迎刃而解了吗？

Politicians push privatisation at different times for different reasons. In Britain in the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher³ used it to curb⁴ the power of the unions. Eastern European countries employed it later to dismantle⁵ command economies. Today, with public indebtedness at its highest peacetime level in advanced economies, the main rationale is to raise cash.

政府会在不同的时期因为不同的原因而进行私有化。玛格丽特·撒切尔在上世纪80年代的英国推行私有化，是因为那时正是工会势力的强盛时期，她想借此压制工会；后来，东欧国家也实施了私有化，那是因为他们想摆脱计划经济。而如今，让富国变卖家底，是因为他们的债务水平正处于和平年代的最高峰，实行私有化有助于他们筹措资金。

Taxpayers⁶ might think that the best family silver has already been sold, but plenty is still in the cupboard. State-owned enterprises in OECD countries are worth around $2 trillion. Then there are minority stakes in companies, plus $2 trillion or so in utilities and other assets held by local governments. But the real treasures are “non-financial” assets—buildings, land, subsoil resources—which the IMF believes are worth three-quarters of GDP on average in rich economies: $35 trillion across the OECD.

对此，民众可能会有不同的想法。因为，在他们看来，值钱的家底已经卖得差不多了，还有什么能拿的出手吗？但是，破家值万贯，再穷的也总有压箱底的宝贝。对于富国来说，这些宝贝就是大约价值在2万亿美元的政府企业，以及差不多同等价值的在私营公司股权和地方政府手里的公用事业等其他资产。但这还算不上是真正值钱的，真正值钱的是那些“非金融性”资产，也就是房产，土地和地下资源。据国际货币基金组织测算，这部分家底的价值在35万亿美元左右，相当于富国平常年份GDP总和的四分之三。

Some of these assets could not or should not be sold. What price the Louvre, the Parthenon or Yellowstone National Park? Murky⁸ government accounting⁹ makes it impossible to know what portion of the total such treasures make up. But it is clear that the overall list includes thousands of marketable holdings with little or no heritage value.

不过，不是所有的家底都能卖的。有的不仅不应卖，而且不能卖。试想，谁能给卢浮宫，帕特农神庙或者黄石国家公园开个价呢？因此，准备出售家底的政府应该明白这样一个道理：就算账本再难看，也不能把这些宝贝拿出来卖。能够卖的应该是那些不怎么值钱或者是没有多少传承价值的东西。因为，单单这些就已经足够了。

America's federal government owns nearly 1m buildings (of which 45,000 were found to be unneeded or under-used in a 2011 audit) and about a fifth of the country's land area, beneath which lie vast reserves of oil, gas and other minerals; America's “fracking” revolution has so far been almost entirely¹⁰ on private land. The Greek state's largest stock of unrealised value lies in its more than 80,000 non-heritage buildings and plots of land. With only one holiday home for every 100 in Spain, Greece should be able to tempt¹¹ developers and other investors¹² at the right price. Analysts¹³ at PwC reckon Sweden has marketable state-owned property worth $100 billion-120 billion. If that is typical of the OECD, its governments are sitting on saleable land and buildings worth up to $9 trillion—equivalent to almost a fifth of their combined gross debt.

先看美国。联邦政府的家底中包括近100万幢建筑物和约占国土面积五分之一的土地。据2011年的一次摸底调查显示，在这100万幢建筑物中，政府不再需要的或者是已经用不着了建筑物为45000幢。土地方面，由于它们大都蕴藏着丰富的石油和天然气或者其他资源。因此，只要像迄今为止几乎完全都是在私人土地上进行的“压裂”革命那样，只要把土地卖出去，肯定能得到丰厚的回报。再看希腊：他们最值钱的应该是数量约为80000处的没有传承价值的建筑物和大大小小的地块，这些家底还一直未实现其价值。鉴于西班牙百户人家平均只有一户拥有度假屋， 希腊应当可以用适当的价格吸引开发商和其他投资商。最后是瑞典：据普华永道的估计，如果以市场价格来计算，该国政府手中所持有的土地和房产约为1000亿-1200亿美元。若以上情况属实，那么，富国政府真正是在坐拥“金山银山”。因为，仅可供出售的土地和房屋加起来就大约值9万亿美元，这几乎相当于他们GDP总和的五分之一。

Get on with it

卖吧！

Governments seem strangely reluctant to exploit these revenue-raising opportunities. That is partly because privatisation always faces opposition¹⁴. Particular sensitivities surround land, as Ronald Reagan discovered when his plan to sell swathes of America's West were shot down by a coalition¹⁵ of greens and ranchers who enjoyed grazing rights, and as the British government found in 2010 when environmentalists scuppered its attempt to sell Forestry¹⁶ Commission land.

但奇怪的是，当增收的机会就摆在眼前时，富裕国家似乎又有点拿不定主意了。究其原因，除了舍不得之外，最主要的是因为，政府在推行私有化时，总会遇到反对。土地买卖特别敏感。当里根准备出售美国西部土地时，他发现自己成了热爱游牧的绿色和平人士和农场主的攻击对象；当英国政府试图在2010年将林业委员会所属的土地卖给别人时，他们遭到了环保主义者的突袭。

In recent years the big transactions, apart from reprivatisations of rescued banks, have mostly taken place in emerging markets. Activity is starting to pick up in Europe: the British government sold Royal Mail last year, and is setting a good example both in transparency over its land and property holdings and in its readiness to sell them. But, overall, caution rules. Italy, for example, carries a public-debt burden of 132% of GDP, yet its privatisation plans are timid—even though the state has proportionately more to sell than most other rich countries, with corporate¹⁷ stakes worth perhaps $225 billion and non-financial assets worth as much as $1.6 trillion. Now that markets have regained¹⁸ their composure, it is time to be bolder.

但是，在看到新兴市场国家近年来一直在出售政府资产方面频出大手笔之后，欧洲终于也坐不住了：去年，英国政府卖掉了皇家邮政，并且还在公布家底和出卖意向方面带了一个好头。不过，欧洲国家在做这些事的时候，总是显得畏手畏脚，小心过头。意大利就是这方面的一个例子。虽说该国的政府债务已经达到了GDP的132%，虽说他们的家底比任何一个富裕国家都要殷实，但他们总是在实行私有化时表现的小心谨慎，以至于白白地浪费了手中所持有的2250亿美元的股票和1.6万亿美元的非金融性资产。既然市场已经缓过劲来了，还犹豫什么呢？放开胆子卖啊！

There are ways of encouraging sales. Data collection on public property is shockingly poor. It is patchy even in Scandinavia, where governments pride themselves on their openness. Governments need to get a better idea of what they hold. Effective land registries, giving certainty to title, are essential: Greece's registry remains¹⁹ a mess. Too many governments use a flaky form of “cash basis” accounting that obscures the costs of holding property. Too few produce proper balance-sheets. Better beancounting would make it easier to ascertain²⁰ what might be better off in private hands.

促进房产买卖有许多法子。公共房产和土地方面，数据的收集糟糕的要命。即便是以公开透明而自诩的北欧诸国政府在这个问题上也做得差强人意。政府对自己的家底应当有更清楚的认识。为了要让房产权有确定性， 有效的土地登记是不可少的：希腊的土地登记仍然是一团糟。太多的政府在房产的会计核算上采用一种不可靠的“现金制”， 这会模糊房产持有的成本。只有为数很少的政府对此提供适当的资产负债表。一个好的会计核算制度会让人们更容易确定哪些公房私买之后 比较合算。

Governments also need to sweat whatever remains in state hands. There is no single model for managing public assets, but any successful strategy would include setting private-sector-style financial benchmarks, replacing cronies with experienced managers and shielding them from political interference. Not only is this good in itself, but it can also lead naturally to privatisation. That was the case in Sweden a decade ago, when creating a professionally managed holding company for state assets revealed many to be non-core, leading to a selling splurge by a left-leaning government.

这样，在搞清土地和房产的情况之后，政府还要花大力气对剩余的家底进行一番整顿。公共资产的管理没有成例可循，但是若想成功，就必须为其设定新的基准，以私人投资的标准来要求公共资产，用经验丰富的资产管理者取代靠拉关系而上位的庸才，并且让这些人免受政治干扰。这种做法不仅本身有利于公共资产的管理，而且还能自然而然地公共资产的私有化。瑞典早在10年前就为我们树立了一个榜样。当时，在给政府资产建立一个由专业人士管理的控股公司的过程中曾发现许多资产属于非核心资产，为此，该国左倾的政府掀起过一股私有化大潮。

Where are the successors to Thatcher and Reagan?

学学里根和撒切尔

Privatisation is no panacea²¹ for profligate²² governments. Selling assets is a one-off that provides only brief respite²³ for those addicted²⁴ to overspending (though, once sold, assets—from ports to companies—tend to generate far more business). It also has to be weighed against lost revenue if the assets provide an income stream: oil-rich Norway gets a quarter of its government revenue from well-managed state companies. Selling when markets are depressed²⁵ is generally a bad idea.

在私有化的过程中，各国政府应该注意一下三点。第一，私有化不是灵丹妙药。对挥霍无度花钱上瘾的政府来说，它只能解一时之痛，尽管卖掉港口和企业都会大大地促进商业的发展。第二，只要待出售的资产还能带来一点收入。政府就应该三思而后行。在这方面，挪威就是一个可供学习的榜样。虽说这个国家的是靠石油富裕起来的，但是政府的收入中有四分之一是来自于对国有企业的良好管理。第三，不要再市场不振时出售家底。

Governments also need to learn from mistakes made in past waves of privatisation. Without robust²⁶ regulation, sell-offs enrich insiders and lead to backlashes. That happened in Britain (over rail and utilities) and emerging markets (telecoms, banking²⁷ and more). The Royal Mail sale was a reminder²⁸ of the political risks: price an asset too high and the deal might flop²⁹; price it too low and the taxpayer⁷ feels cheated. Nevertheless, for governments that are serious about bringing their spending in line with revenues, privatisation is a useful tool. It allows governments to cut their debts and improve their credit ratings, thus reducing their outgoings, and it improves the economy's efficiency by boosting competition and by applying private-sector capital and skills to newly privatised assets.

另外，富国政府还应从之前的私有化大潮中吸取经验和教训。他们必须明白，如果缺乏严格的监管，私有化就会变成内幕交易者牟利的机会，从而引发民众的不满。英国在出售铁路和公共事业时发生过这种事情，新兴市场国家在出售电信和银行等行业时也发生过这种事情。围绕着出售皇家邮政而发生的一系列事情提醒政府注意，私有化是要冒政治风险的：如果出价太高，协议可能会泡汤；如果出价太低，民众又会认为自己受骗了。尽管如此，政府还是应该把私有化当成是一个有用的工具。因为，对于真得想实现收支平衡的政府来说，他们可以借此降低债务，提高信用，从而达到减少开支的目的；他们可以借此鼓励竞争，可以借此用私人投资的标准来要求刚刚实现了私有化的国有资产，从而达到提高经济效率的目的。

Thatcher and Reagan used privatisation as a tool to transform utilities, telecoms and transport. Their 21st-century successors need to do the same for buildings, land and resources. Huge value is waiting to be unlocked.

撒切尔和里根都曾经利用私有化的方式，将原本由政府运营的公用事业、电信和交通等行业转变为私人企业。如今，他们的后人也需要对房屋、土地和资源实行私有化。这是一笔巨大的财富，它正在等待着人们去把它发掘出来。

1 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

2 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

3 thatcher   

n.茅屋匠

参考例句：

• Tom Sawyer was in the skiff that bore Judge Thatcher. 汤姆 - 索亚和撒切尔法官同乘一条小艇。 来自英汉文学 - 汤姆历险
• Mrs. Thatcher was almost crazed; and Aunt Polly, also. 撒切尔夫人几乎神经失常，还有波莉姨妈也是。 来自英汉文学 - 汤姆历险

4 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

5 dismantle   

vt.拆开，拆卸；废除，取消

参考例句：

• He asked for immediate help from the United States to dismantle the warheads.他请求美国立即提供援助，拆除这批弹头。
• The mower firmly refused to mow,so I decided to dismantle it.修完后割草机还是纹丝不动，于是，我决定把它拆开。

6 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

7 taxpayer   

n.纳税人

参考例句：

• The new scheme will run off with a lot of the taxpayer's money.这项新计划将用去纳税人许多钱。
• The taxpayer are unfavourably disposed towards the recent tax increase.纳税者对最近的增加税收十分反感。

8 murky   

adj.黑暗的，朦胧的；adv.阴暗地，混浊地；n.阴暗；昏暗

参考例句：

• She threw it into the river's murky depths.她把它扔进了混浊的河水深处。
• She had a decidedly murky past.她的历史背景令人捉摸不透。

9 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

10 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

11 tempt   

vt.引诱，勾引，吸引，引起…的兴趣

参考例句：

• Nothing could tempt him to such a course of action.什么都不能诱使他去那样做。
• The fact that she had become wealthy did not tempt her to alter her frugal way of life.她有钱了，可这丝毫没能让她改变节俭的生活习惯。

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

15 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

16 forestry   

n.森林学；林业

参考例句：

• At present, the Chinese forestry is being at a significant transforming period. 当前, 我国的林业正处于一个重大的转折时期。
• Anhua is one of the key forestry counties in Hunan province. 安化县是湖南省重点林区县之一。

17 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

18 regained   

复得( regain的过去式和过去分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• The majority of the people in the world have regained their liberty. 世界上大多数人已重获自由。
• She hesitated briefly but quickly regained her poise. 她犹豫片刻，但很快恢复了镇静。

19 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

20 ascertain   

vt.发现，确定，查明，弄清

参考例句：

• It's difficult to ascertain the coal deposits.煤储量很难探明。
• We must ascertain the responsibility in light of different situtations.我们必须根据不同情况判定责任。

21 panacea   

n.万灵药；治百病的灵药

参考例句：

• Western aid may help but will not be a panacea. 西方援助可能会有所帮助，但并非灵丹妙药。
• There's no single panacea for the country's economic ills. 国家经济弊病百出,并无万灵药可以医治。

22 profligate   

adj.行为不检的；n.放荡的人，浪子，肆意挥霍者

参考例句：

• This young man had all the inclination to be a profligate of the first water.这个青年完全有可能成为十足的浪子。
• Similarly Americans have been profligate in the handling of mineral resources.同样的，美国在处理矿产资源方面亦多浪费。

23 respite   

n.休息，中止，暂缓

参考例句：

• She was interrogated without respite for twenty-four hours.她被不间断地审问了二十四小时。
• Devaluation would only give the economy a brief respite.贬值只能让经济得到暂时的缓解。

24 addicted   

adj.沉溺于....的，对...上瘾的

参考例句：

• He was addicted to heroin at the age of 17.他17岁的时候对海洛因上了瘾。
• She's become addicted to love stories.她迷上了爱情小说。

25 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

26 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

27 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

28 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

29 flop   

n.失败(者)，扑通一声；vi.笨重地行动，沉重地落下

参考例句：

• The fish gave a flop and landed back in the water.鱼扑通一声又跳回水里。
• The marketing campaign was a flop.The product didn't sell.市场宣传彻底失败，产品卖不出去。