2019年经济学人 全球贸易:世界末日(1)

 

"Winter is coming," warned a Norwegian representative on November 22nd, at a meeting of the World Trade Organisation¹ (WTO).

“寒冬要来了，”11月22日一名挪威代表在世界贸易组织（WTO）的一次会上表示。

The multilateral trading system that the WTO has overseen² since 1995 is about to freeze up.

自1995年起受WTO监督的多边贸易体系即将冻结。

On December 10th two of the judges on its appellate body,

12月10日，其上诉机构的两名法官将退休，

which hears appeals in trade disputes and authorises sanctions against rule-breakers, will retire

该机构负责审理贸易争端中的上诉，并授权对违反规则者进行制裁，

—and an American block on new appointments means they will not be replaced.

—美国对新任命的阻挠意味着他们不会被取代。

With just one judge remaining, it will no longer be able to hear new cases.

由于只剩下一名法官，该机构将无法再审理新案件。

The WTO underpins³ 96% of global trade. By one recent estimate, membership of the WTO or General Agreement on Tariffs⁵ and Trade (GATT),

WTO支撑着96%的全球贸易。根据最近的一项估计，WTO或其前身关税及贸易总协定（GATT）的成员国身份

its predecessor⁶, has boosted trade among members by 171%.

促使成员国之间的贸易增长171%。

When iPhones move from China to America, or bottles of Scotch⁷ whisky from the European Union to India,

当iPhone手机从中国转移到美国，或者是苏格兰威士忌从欧盟转移到印度时，

it is the WTO's rules that keep tariff⁴ and non-tariff barriers low and give companies the certainty they need to plan and invest.

是WTO的规则使关税和非关税壁垒保持在较低水平，并使企业在规划和投资方面有了确定性。

The system is supposed to be self-reinforcing. Mostly, countries follow the WTO's rules.

这个体系本应自我强化。多数情况下，成员国也遵守着WTO的规则。

But if one feels another has transgressed⁸, then instead of starting a one-on-one trade spat⁹ it can file a formal dispute.

但如果一方觉得另一方违反了协议，那么它可以提起正式纷争，而不是挑起一对一的贸易争端。

If the WTO's ruling displeases¹⁰ either party, it can appeal. The appellate body's judgments¹¹ pack a punch.

如果WTO的裁决让任一方感到不满，那么该方可以上诉。上诉机构的判决非常有效力。

If the loser fails to bring its trade rules into compliance¹², the winner can impose tariffs up to the amount the judges think the rule-breaking cost it.

如果败诉的一方未能遵守其贸易规则， 那么胜诉的一方可以征收关税，最高可以达到法官认为违规造成的损失。

It is that punishment that deters¹³ rule breaking in the first place.

正是这种惩罚在一开始就阻止了违规行为。

It is no surprise that President Donald Trump¹⁴ has axed these foreign arbiters¹⁵, given his general distaste for internationally agreed rules.

考虑到唐纳德·特朗普总统对国际协议规则的反感，他砍掉这些外国法官也就不意外了。

On November 12th he declared himself "very tentative" on the WTO. But the problems run far deeper than dislike of multilateral institutions.

11月12日，他宣称自己对WTO“非常犹豫”。但问题远不止是对多边机构厌恶。

They stem from a breakdown¹⁶ in trust over the way international law should work, and the more general failure of the WTO's negotiating arm.

它们源于对国际法运作方式信任的破裂，以及WTO谈判机构更普遍的失败。

Had the Americans felt that they could negotiate away their grievances¹⁷, resentment¹⁸ towards the appellate body might not have built up.

如果美国人觉得他们可以通过谈判来解决他们的不满，那么他们对上诉机构的怨恨可能就不会形成。

But with so many members reluctant to liberalise, including smaller countries fearful of opening up to China, that has been impossible.

但由于许多成员国不愿自由化，包括害怕向中国开放的小国，所以这是不可能的。

1 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

2 overseen   

v.监督，监视( oversee的过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was overseen stealing the letters. 他被人撞见在偷信件。 来自辞典例句
• It will be overseen by ThomasLi, director of IBM China Research Laboratory. 该实验室由IBM中国研究院院长李实恭(ThomasLi)引导。 来自互联网

3 underpins   

n.基础材料( underpin的名词复数 )；基础结构；（学说、理论等的）基础；（人的）腿v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑（墙等）( underpin的第三人称单数 )；加固（墙等）的基础；为（论据、主张等）打下基础；加强

参考例句：

• A powerful sense of mission underpins everything he does. 一种强烈的使命感支撑他所做的一切。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His presence at the crime underpins the case against him. 案子发生时他在场对他更不利。 来自辞典例句

4 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

5 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

6 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

7 scotch   

n.伤口，刻痕；苏格兰威士忌酒；v.粉碎，消灭，阻止；adj.苏格兰(人)的

参考例句：

• Facts will eventually scotch these rumours.这种谣言在事实面前将不攻自破。
• Italy was full of fine views and virtually empty of Scotch whiskey.意大利多的是美景，真正缺的是苏格兰威士忌。

8 transgressed   

v.超越( transgress的过去式和过去分词 )；越过；违反；违背

参考例句：

• You transgressed against the law. 你犯法了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• His behavior transgressed the unwritten rules of social conduct. 他的行为违反了不成文的社交规范。 来自辞典例句

9 spat   

n.口角，掌击；v.发出呼噜呼噜声

参考例句：

• Her parents always have spats.她的父母经常有些小的口角。
• There is only a spat between the brother and sister.那只是兄妹间的小吵小闹。

10 displeases   

冒犯，使生气，使不愉快( displease的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Nothing displeases me more than loud talking. 没有比大声谈话更使我不高兴的了。
• Bill is a wise guy and displeases others by what he says. 比尔自命不凡，说的话让人生气。

11 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

12 compliance   

n.顺从；服从；附和；屈从

参考例句：

• I was surprised by his compliance with these terms.我对他竟然依从了这些条件而感到吃惊。
• She gave up the idea in compliance with his desire.她顺从他的愿望而放弃自己的主意。

13 deters   

v.阻止，制止( deter的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The filth here deters all but the invited guest. 这里污秽不堪，除非有事，外人是裹足不前的。 来自辞典例句
• Many people believe that capital punishment deters crime. 很多人相信极刑能阻止犯罪。 来自互联网

14 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

15 arbiters   

仲裁人，裁决者( arbiter的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• In the forensicfield, the final arbiters of quality are the courts. 在法医学领域，质量的最后仲裁者是法庭。
• They are, increasingly, arbiters of which types of borrowers get credit. 它们正越来越多地充当决定哪几种借款人可获得信贷的裁决人角色。

16 breakdown   

n.垮，衰竭；损坏，故障，倒塌

参考例句：

• She suffered a nervous breakdown.她患神经衰弱。
• The plane had a breakdown in the air,but it was fortunately removed by the ace pilot.飞机在空中发生了故障，但幸运的是被王牌驾驶员排除了。

17 grievances   

n.委屈( grievance的名词复数 )；苦衷；不满；牢骚

参考例句：

• The trade union leader spoke about the grievances of the workers. 工会领袖述说工人们的苦情。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• He gave air to his grievances. 他申诉了他的冤情。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 resentment   

n.怨愤，忿恨

参考例句：

• All her feelings of resentment just came pouring out.她一股脑儿倾吐出所有的怨恨。
• She cherished a deep resentment under the rose towards her employer.她暗中对她的雇主怀恨在心。