2021年经济学人 气候变化会否触发金融危机?(4)

In its most severe scenario¹ there was a sudden change in climate policy alongside rapid progress in renewable energy development, causing a “double shock” for companies and a severe recession.

在最严重的情况下，气候政策的突然变化伴随着可再生能源开发的快速进展，给企业带来“双重冲击”和严重的经济衰退。

Even then, banks’ capital ratios fell by about four percentage points.

即便如此，银行的资本比率仍下降了约4个百分点。

That is sizeable, but still less than what the banks experienced in this year’s regular stress tests by the European Banking² Authority, which they were deemed to pass.

这一数字着实不低，但它仍低于今年欧洲银行管理局(European Banking Authority)对银行进行的常规压力测试结果，它们获得了测试通过认可。

To what extent are these stress tests realistic?

这些压力测试有多真实呢？

Mark Campanale of Carbon Tracker is sceptical, pointing out that most firms are using out-of-date models.

碳追踪公司的Mark Campanale对此持怀疑态度，他指出大多数公司使用的都是过时的模型。

If auditors³ were ever to stress companies’ assets against a much lower oil price, the associated write-downs could trigger a collapse⁴ in investor⁵ sentiment of the sort regulators fear, he claims.

他声称，如果审计机构在油价大幅下跌的情况下对公司资产施加压力，相关的资产减记可能会引发监管机构所担心的那种投资者情绪崩溃。

Nor do the stress tests include a full-blown Minsky crisis.

压力测试也没有包括全面的明斯基危机。

Yet in other respects they are conservative.

不过在其他方面，他们比较保守。

Most of the tests used an accelerated time frame—five years in the DNB and BdF cases—in effect assuming that firms are stuck with the balance-sheets they have today.

大多数测试使用了一个加速的时间框架——DNB和BdF是5年——其实是假设公司一直受困于眼下的资产负债表。

But it seems reasonable to think that banks and insurers will change their business models as the climate transition progresses, curbing⁶ the impact on the financial system.

但如果说，随着气候变化的发展，银行和保险公司改变它们的业务模式，遏制其对金融体系的影响，也是有道理的。

The BdF ran a second exercise where firms were allowed to make realistic changes to their business models over 30 years.

BdF进行了第二次试验，允许企业在30年的时间里对其商业模式做出实际改变。

Unsurprisingly, that allowed banks to sharply reduce lending to fossil-fuel sectors⁷, and insurers to raise premiums⁸.

不出所料，这使得银行大幅减少了对化石燃料行业的贷款，保险公司也提高了保费。

Nonetheless, the stress tests reveal the importance of giving firms time to adapt.

尽管如此，压力测试揭示了给公司适应时间的重要性。

And that makes a predictable path for government policy important.

因此政府政策的可预测性就变得很重要了。

The BdF found that credit losses were highest when policy was delayed and there was a sudden transition.

BdF发现，当政策推迟和突然转变时，信贷损失最高。

Perhaps the most plausible⁹ scenario in which climate change affects financial stability is one in which governments dawdle¹⁰, and then have no choice but to take drastic action in the future.

在气候变化影响金融稳定的情况下，也许最可能出现的一幕是，各国政府拖拖拉拉，最后别无选择，只得采取极端行动。

1 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

2 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

3 auditors   

n.审计员，稽核员( auditor的名词复数 )；（大学课程的）旁听生

参考例句：

• The company has been in litigation with its previous auditors for a full year. 那家公司与前任审计员已打了整整一年的官司。
• a meeting to discuss the annual accounts and the auditors' report thereon 讨论年度报表及其审计报告的会议

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

6 curbing   

n.边石，边石的材料v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Progress has been made in curbing inflation. 在控制通货膨胀方面已取得了进展。
• A range of policies have been introduced aimed at curbing inflation. 为了抑制通货膨胀实施了一系列的政策。

7 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

8 premiums   

n.费用( premium的名词复数 )；保险费；额外费用；（商品定价、贷款利息等以外的）加价

参考例句：

• He paid premiums on his life insurance last year. 他去年付了人寿保险费。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• Moves are afoot to increase car insurance premiums. 现正在酝酿提高汽车的保险费。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

10 dawdle   

vi.浪费时间；闲荡

参考例句：

• Don't dawdle over your clothing.You're so beautiful already.不要再在衣着上花费时间了，你已经够漂亮的了。
• The teacher told the students not to dawdle away their time.老师告诉学生们别混日子。