【英语时差8,16】棒球，焦油及相关的科学方法

One of the fundamental ideas of scientific thinking can be summed up in the phrase: "Correlation¹ does not imply causation."   

A simpler way to say that is: "this follows that" does not mean "this follows from that." Even in science, it's easy to confuse the two.

 

Let's look at an example. Suppose you notice that sometimes the tar² in the pavement outside your house is soft and pliable³, while other times it's hard and brittle⁴. This is an observation of the world, what a scientist would call "a datum⁵". By checking the tar every day for a reasonable period of time, you may discover a pattern: whenever the kids next door play baseball, the tar goes soft. Repeat the experiment to be sure: yes, you will find, there is a statistically⁶ significant linkage⁷ between these events, no matter what method of data analysis you use. Have we not just proven that the baseball affects tar?

 

No, we haven't; and the reason is that the connection here is still one of correlation. Our observation of the tar and the kids is entirely⁸ valid⁹ scientific practice, as far as it goes; however, the leap to causation--that is, to the conclusion that baseball causes tar to soften--is invalid¹⁰.

 

You've probably guessed already what the real link in our scenario¹¹ is: both these things happen when the sun comes out. But the distinction between correlation and causation in less obvious situations is often a tricky¹² one--and something scientists have to keep in mind all the time.  

1 correlation   

n.相互关系，相关，关连

参考例句：

• The second group of measurements had a high correlation with the first.第二组测量数据与第一组高度相关。
• A high correlation exists in America between education and economic position.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系。

2 tar   

n.柏油，焦油；vt.涂或浇柏油/焦油于

参考例句：

• The roof was covered with tar.屋顶涂抹了一层沥青。
• We use tar to make roads.我们用沥青铺路。

3 pliable   

adj.易受影响的；易弯的；柔顺的，易驾驭的

参考例句：

• Willow twigs are pliable.柳条很软。
• The finely twined baskets are made with young,pliable spruce roots.这些编织精美的篮子是用柔韧的云杉嫩树根编成的。

4 brittle   

adj.易碎的；脆弱的；冷淡的；(声音)尖利的

参考例句：

• The pond was covered in a brittle layer of ice.池塘覆盖了一层易碎的冰。
• She gave a brittle laugh.她冷淡地笑了笑。

5 datum   

n.资料；数据；已知数

参考例句：

• The author has taught foreigners Chinese manyand gathered rich language and datum.作者长期从事对外汉语教学，积累了丰富的语言资料。
• Every theory,datum,or fact is generated by purpose.任何理论，资料、事实都来自于一定的目的。

6 statistically   

ad.根据统计数据来看，从统计学的观点来看

参考例句：

• The sample of building permits is larger and therefore, statistically satisfying. 建筑许可数的样本比较大，所以统计数据更令人满意。
• The results of each test would have to be statistically independent. 每次试验的结果在统计上必须是独立的。

7 linkage   

n.连接；环节

参考例句：

• In their monographic treatment of linkage,they have emphasized this especially.他们在论连锁的专题文章中特别强调了这点。
• Occasionally,problems with block inheritance or linkage are encountered.有时会遇到区段遗传或连锁问题。

8 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

9 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

10 invalid   

n.病人，伤残人；adj.有病的，伤残的；无效的

参考例句：

• He will visit an invalid.他将要去看望一个病人。
• A passport that is out of date is invalid.护照过期是无效的。

11 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

12 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。