经济学人404:德意志银行 胃口不小

 　　Deutsche Bank

　　德意志银行

　　Hollow legs

　　胃口不小

　　Europe's biggest bank pours money into investment banking¹

　　欧洲最大的银行向其投行业务注资

　　WHEN Deutsche Bank tapped shareholders² for 3 billion last year, it hailed the end of a “hunger march” for capital. In fact, it had only whetted³ its appetite. On May 18th it announced a plan to raise a further 8 billion. In addition to placating⁴ regulators who are demanding ever-more-solid balance-sheets, Deutsche needs the extra nourishment⁵ to keep up with its investment-banking rivals on Wall Street, a competition most of its European counterparts have abandoned.

　　去年德意志银行向股东要求注资30亿欧元，这标志着资本“饥饿游行”的结束。事实上，这仅仅是开胃菜。在5月18日，德意志银行宣布计划募资80亿欧元。此次筹资一方面是为了安抚对资产负债表有着更加严苛要求的监管机构欧洲央行，另一方面是为了赶上华尔街的那些投行对手而补充额外的营养，尽管一些欧洲同行已经放弃了同他们的竞争。

　　德意志银行.jpg

　　Deutsche has long lacked the buffers⁶ of some of its rivals. The extra cash, part of which will come from Qatar's royal family, will put paid to questions about its resilience—at least for a bit. A finding that it fiddled⁷ currency markets, or a further fine for its part in fixing LIBOR, a benchmark interest rate, could cost it 3 billion. A restructuring will eat up a further 2 billion. And changes in how its trading book is valued will rob it of 2 billion when calculating regulatory ratios. Add that up and its core Tier 1 ratio, a measure of the losses it can safely endure, may slip from 11.8% after the capital-raising back towards the current 9.5%. Using the leverage⁸ ratio, of equity⁹ to assets, it is still lagging its rivals, particularly American ones such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.

　　从上图可知，长期以来德意志银行都缺乏像部分竞争对手所拥有的缓冲资金。部分额外资金是来自于卡塔尔的皇室家族，这能解决资金弹性的问题——至少能解决一部分。另一则发现是德意志银行因涉嫌扰乱货币市场，或者因涉嫌操控LIBOR而被处以30亿欧元的罚款。一项资产重组会再吞掉20亿欧元。在计算监管比率的时候，交易账户评估方式的改变将会使德意志再次损失20亿欧元。将这些因素汇总，德意志银行的一级资本充足率将从筹资之后的11.8%下降到现在的9.5%。从权益资本杠杆比率的角度来看，德意志银行仍然落后于他的竞争对手们，尤其是美国的对手比如高盛和摩根大通。

　　Doubling down on investment banking seems to have been the only strategy available to Deutsche: the division accounts for the lion's share of its profits. Its co-chief executive, Anshu Jain, an habitué of trading floors, was never likely to retreat from the business the way most big European banks have. Two weeks ago, Barclays, which for decades mimicked¹⁰ Deutsche's drive to bulk up in investment banking, announced it would instead start cutting back. UBS and Credit Suisse, two Swiss rivals, have already shrunk their investment-banking arms.

　　增加对投资银行业务的投入看起来是德意志银行唯一可行的出路：因为这是他所有业务中盈利能力最强的部门。德意志银行的联合首席执行官Anshu Jain表示，就像一位交易大厅中的常客不会放弃这项事业一样，德意志银行也不会像其他欧洲其他大银行一样削减投行业务。两周以前，巴克莱银行宣布缩减投行业务。而在此之前的几十年里，巴克莱银行一直效仿德意志银行扩展投行业务。两个瑞士的对手瑞士银行和瑞士信贷，也已经缩减其投行部门。

　　The gambit is not a one-way bet. The juiciest bits of investment banking—the trading of bonds, currencies and commodities together known as “FICC”—have been in the decline in recent years. If that is merely a cyclical downturn in response to ultra-low interest rates, as some posit¹¹, Deutsche's investment should pay off handsomely when the good times roll again. But others see an irreversible slump¹² prompted by post-crisis regulations.

　　这一招不是一个单向的赌博。投行业务中最大的一块内容—债券交易，货币和商品，统称为“固定收益”—在近年来已经呈现下降趋势。如果正如一些分析所说这只是针对超低利率的周期性衰退，那么当牛市回归，德意志银行的投资会得到丰厚的回报。但是其他人却认为这是金融危机后的监管带来的不可逆转的衰退。

　　There are other risks, too. Though Deutsche may be the last man standing¹³ in Europe, plenty of American banks are active in London and Frankfurt. It will soon come under the regulatory purview¹⁴ of the European Central Bank, which is likely to be more exacting¹⁵ than BaFin, the German overseer. If Mr Jain is held responsible for the various market scandals facing Deutsche, his departure could prompt a shift in strategy.

　　当然还有其他的风险。尽管德意志银行有可能成为欧洲唯一一个从事投行业务的银行，大量的美国银行仍旧在伦敦和法兰克福表现活跃。并且德意志银行很快就要面临来自监管机构欧洲央行的压力测试，而欧洲央行很有可能比德国金融监管机构BaFin更加严格。如果德意志银行和其他银行一样，是由联合首席执行官Jain先生来承担德意志银行所面临的各种市场丑闻，那么他的离开可能会引起战略调整。

　　Unlike credit cards at Barclays and wealth-management at UBS, Deutsche does not have other strongly profitable units that could make up for FICC's retreat. That is one reason why its decision to raise cash took nobody by surprise. It has waited a long time to admit the inevitable¹⁶: its share price has fallen by a quarter over the past four months. Shareholders' own hunger march, in other words, goes on.

　　不同于巴克莱银行的信用卡业务和瑞士银行的财富管理业务，德意志银行并没有其他强势的盈利项目能够补充固定收益的下降。这也是为什么大家对德意志银行决定筹资并不觉得意外的原因之一。筹资措施是经过很长时间的考虑之后才被认为是唯一的方法：在过去的四个月里，德意志银行的股价已经下跌了四分之一。换句话说，属于股东们自己的“饥饿游行”还在继续。

1 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

2 shareholders   

n.股东( shareholder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The meeting was attended by 90% of shareholders. 90%的股东出席了会议。
• the company's fiduciary duty to its shareholders 公司对股东负有的受托责任

3 whetted   

v.（在石头上）磨（刀、斧等）( whet的过去式和过去分词 )；引起，刺激（食欲、欲望、兴趣等）

参考例句：

• The little chicks had no more than whetted his appetite. 那几只小鸡只引起了他的胃口。 来自英汉文学 - 热爱生命
• The poor morsel of food only whetted desire. 那块小的可怜的喜糕反而激起了他们的食欲。 来自英汉文学 - 汤姆历险

4 placating   

v.安抚，抚慰，使平静( placate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• She pulled her face into a placating and childlike expression. 于是她装出一副稚气的想要和解的样子来。 来自飘（部分）
• Uncle Peter's voice came as from a far distance, plaintive, placating. 彼得大叔这时说话了，他的声音犹如自一个遥远的地方起来，既带有哀愁又给人以安慰。 来自飘（部分）

5 nourishment   

n.食物，营养品；营养情况

参考例句：

• Lack of proper nourishment reduces their power to resist disease.营养不良降低了他们抵抗疾病的能力。
• He ventured that plants draw part of their nourishment from the air.他大胆提出植物从空气中吸收部分养分的观点。

6 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

7 fiddled   

v.伪造( fiddle的过去式和过去分词 )；篡改；骗取；修理或稍作改动

参考例句：

• He fiddled the company's accounts. 他篡改了公司的账目。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He began with Palestrina, and fiddled all the way through Bartok. 他从帕勒斯春纳的作品一直演奏到巴塔克的作品。 来自辞典例句

8 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

9 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

10 mimicked   

v.（尤指为了逗乐而）模仿( mimic的过去式和过去分词 )；酷似

参考例句：

• He mimicked her upper-class accent. 他模仿她那上流社会的腔调。 来自辞典例句
• The boy mimicked his father's voice and set everyone off laughing. 男孩模仿他父亲的嗓音，使大家都大笑起来。 来自辞典例句

11 posit   

v.假定，认为

参考例句：

• If she needs salvation,she will posit a savior.如果她需要救助，她就会设想一个救助者。
• Other historians posit that she died of old age around 550 BC.别的史学家则认为她一直活到公元前550年左右才寿终正寝。

12 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

13 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

14 purview   

n.范围；眼界

参考例句：

• These are questions that lie outside the purview of our inquiry.这些都不是属于我们调查范围的问题。
• That,however,was beyond the purview of the court;it was a diplomatic matter.但是，那已不在法庭权限之内；那是个外交问题。

15 exacting   

adj.苛求的，要求严格的

参考例句：

• He must remember the letters and symbols with exacting precision.他必须以严格的精度记住每个字母和符号。
• The public has been more exacting in its demands as time has passed.随着时间的推移，公众的要求更趋严格。

16 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。