经济学人:土耳其大选 反对票会占多大比例

 　　Turkey's election

　　土耳其大选

　　How big will the protest vote be?

　　反对票会占多大比例？

　　Why the ruling AK party may not do as well on June 7th as in the past

　　土耳其执政党正义与发展党在6月7日大选的表现为何会不如以往

　　THE Justice and Development (AK) party has won three general elections in a row, most recently in 2011. Yet although it seems certain to win over 40% of the vote and remain the largest party after the election on June 7th, it is losing ground. Many things that helped AK are being reversed. The economy, its strongest suit, has run out of steam. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, AK's charismatic former prime minister, who became Turkey's first directly elected president in August, has become increasingly despotic and out of touch. And some opposition¹ parties now look more appealing.

　　土耳其正义与发展党已连续赢得三次大选，最近的一次是在2011年。尽管正发党对于6月7日的普选似乎胜券在握，认为自己能够赢得超过40%的选票并且其最大执政党的位置依然屹立不倒，然而，正发党的执政地位正日益失势。益于正发党之事也渐渐与其对立起来。其强项经济方面也已经疲软。正发党前首相埃尔多安魅力超凡，曾是首位于八月被直接推选而出的土耳其总统，如今的他却越来越专制与脱节。当下，不少反对党看起来更具有吸引力。

　　土耳其大选.jpg

　　The main centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) has changed tack². Its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has ditched his shrilly³ anti-Erdogan rhetoric⁴ of old and is hitting AK hard on the economy. His pledges to double the minimum wage and to improve the lot of some 11m pensioners⁵ may sound populist, yet they have resonance⁶. Two-thirds of CHP candidates were elected in primaries. And Mr Kilicdaroglu has managed to bring in female candidates such as Selina Dogan, an ethnic⁷ Armenian lawyer, and Selin Sayek Boke, a respected Arab Christian⁸ economist⁹. Ultra-secular dinosaurs¹⁰ have gone.

　　最大的左翼共和人民党改变了策略。其领导人齐力·克达洛格鲁也摒弃了他过去关于反埃尔多安的尖锐说辞，在经济方面对正发党发起重击。他承诺会将最低工资翻上一番，并提高约一千一百万养老金领取人群的数量，听起来民粹主义，然而反响不错。左翼共和人民党中三分之二的候选人都是经过初选选拔而来。克达洛格鲁想法设法引入了一些女性候选人，例如少数民族亚美尼亚律师赛琳娜·多根，受人景仰的阿拉伯经济学家与基督教徒赛琳·萨耶克·博克。超世俗的守旧时代已远去。

　　Alas¹¹, the newly colourful CHP is still not expected to add much to the 26% it got in 2011. But that is partly because some supporters are defecting to another opposition party, the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP). The HDP is a challenge to Mr Erdogan because his dream of an executive presidency¹² depends on its share of the vote. Previously¹³ the Kurds fielded independent candidates to get around the minimum 10% threshold for seats in the parliament. But the HDP is now running nationally. Should it get over 10% of the vote, it will pick up 50-60 seats, leaving AK well short of the minimum 330 deputies required to propose constitutional changes, including an executive presidency.

　　可惜的是，新晋共和人民党仍没有太大希望超过2011年，得到多于26%选票。一部分原因是某些追随者叛变投向诸如亲库尔德人民民主党的其他反对党。亲库尔德人民民主党对于埃尔多安而言是项挑战，因为他的执行主席之梦需要依靠选票来实现。此前，库尔德人派出的独立候选人在议会中所占席位最低大约10%。然而，如今共和人民党的势力正在土耳其全国范围内推行蔓延。如果共和人民党能够赢得超过10%的选票，它将在议会获得50-60的席位，那么正发党则无法凑齐包括执行主席在内的至少330位议会代表的提议来完成宪法修改。

　　Some pollsters think AK might even fall short of the 276 seats it needs for a simple majority. It would then have to form a coalition¹⁴ with the third main opposition party, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP), since both the CHP and the HDP say they will not go into government with AK. If, however, the HDP does not clear the 10% hurdle¹⁵, AK will inherit all its seats, clearing the way not just for a renewed single-party government but perhaps for Mr Erdogan's executive presidency.

　　一些民意调查机构认为正发党达不到一般获胜票选所需的276个席位。接下来它必须要与第三方的反对党----极右翼的民族行动党进行强强联手的合作，因为共和人民党与亲库尔德人民民主党扬言不会与正发党一同加入政府。不过，如果亲库尔德人民民主党没有清除掉那10%的障碍，正发党将获得其在议会的所有席位，这不仅为能复兴一党执政的政府扫清道路，可能也能为埃尔多安的执行主席之位扫除障碍。

　　The HDP owes its rising fortunes in part to its co-chair, Selahattin Demirtas. With his youthful looks and biting wit, the former human-rights lawyer from Diyarbakir makes Mr Erdogan seem a has-been. All over Turkey, bejewelled dowagers, hipsters and factory workers say they may vote HDP either because they “like Demirtas” or because “it's the only way to stop Erdogan.” This is a sea change. The HDP was long seen as the political arm of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the rebels fighting for Kurdish self-rule since 1984. Few doubt that the PKK and its imprisoned¹⁶ leader, Abdullah Ocalan, still hold much sway. But a ceasefire that has held since March 2013 has legitimised the HDP. Winning more seats in parliament would propel the Kurds further into the mainstream¹⁷ and loosen the rebels' grip. Being shut out would have the opposite effect.

　　亲库尔德人民民主党的好运一部分归功于其联合主席塞拉·德米塔斯，这位来自德亚巴克尔的前任人权律师，一表人才、犀利机智，反倒是埃尔多安显得过气起来。纵观整个土耳其，无论是珠光宝气的贵妇、时尚流行的潮人，还是辛勤劳作的工人都表示自己或许会将选票投给亲库尔德人民民主党，理由要么是“敬仰德米塔斯”，要么是“这是唯一能够阻止埃尔多安的方法”。这是一场席卷的变革。亲库尔德人民民主党长期以来一直被视作库尔德工人党在政治上的左膀右臂，自1984年起便致力于库尔德人自制的斗争中。无人质疑库尔德工人党，其已被监禁的领导人阿布拉杜·奥贾兰仍然拥有举足轻重的地位。2013年3月的停战协定使得亲库尔德人民民主党合法化。在议会中赢得更多的席位将推进库尔德人成为政治主流，解放反叛。如被拒之门外，效果会大大相反。

　　Although it was Mr Erdogan who initiated¹⁸ peace with the Kurds, he has hit the campaign trail, Koran in hand, ranting¹⁹ about Mr Demirtas's supposed “terrorist connections” and lack of faith. The HDP has to lure²⁰ pro-AK Kurds into switching sides if it is to squeak²¹ past the threshold. “Kurds in the big western cities like Istanbul and Izmir hold the key,” concludes Behlul Ozkan, a political scientist. The HDP's victory is “by no means guaranteed”

　　尽管埃尔多安倡导与库尔德人和平共处，他却手持《可兰经》，在竞选游说中大放其词称德米塔斯可能“与恐怖分子有来往”，无信仰不忠诚。若亲库尔德人民民主党想要侥幸逃过所谓的门槛，他们必须要引诱正发党的库尔德人转变政治倾向。“库尔德人在诸如伊斯坦布尔与伊兹密尔的西方大城市很关键，”政治科学家Behlul Ozkan如是说。亲库尔德人民民主党是否能够取胜谁也无法保证。

　　1.as well 也；同样；又；还

　　例句:There may be travel expense,as well.

　　可能还有旅途费用。

　　2.such as 例如；诸如

　　例句:We dislike people such as him.

　　我们不喜欢像他这号人。

　　3.pick up 捡起；拾起；拿起

　　例句:She would cleverly pick up on what I said.

　　她会非常聪慧地领悟我所说的话。

　　4.fight for 为…而战

　　例句:We are prepared to fight for every inch of territory.

　　我们时刻准备着为每一寸领土而战。

1 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

2 tack   

n.大头钉；假缝，粗缝

参考例句：

• He is hammering a tack into the wall to hang a picture.他正往墙上钉一枚平头钉用来挂画。
• We are going to tack the map on the wall.我们打算把这张地图钉在墙上。

3 shrilly   

尖声的； 光亮的，耀眼的

参考例句：

• The librarian threw back his head and laughed shrilly. 图书管理员把头往后面一仰，尖着嗓子哈哈大笑。
• He half rose in his seat, whistling shrilly between his teeth, waving his hand. 他从车座上半欠起身子，低声打了一个尖锐的唿哨，一面挥挥手。

4 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

5 pensioners   

n.领取退休、养老金或抚恤金的人( pensioner的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He intends to redistribute income from the middle class to poorer paid employees and pensioners. 他意图把中产阶级到低薪雇员和退休人员的收入做重新分配。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I am myself one of the pensioners upon the fund left by our noble benefactor. 我自己就是一个我们的高贵的施主遗留基金的养老金领取者。 来自辞典例句

6 resonance   

n.洪亮；共鸣；共振

参考例句：

• Playing the piano sets up resonance in those glass ornaments.一弹钢琴那些玻璃饰物就会产生共振。
• The areas under the two resonance envelopes are unequal.两个共振峰下面的面积是不相等的。

7 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

8 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 dinosaurs   

n.恐龙( dinosaur的名词复数 )；守旧落伍的人，过时落后的东西

参考例句：

• The brontosaurus was one of the largest of all dinosaurs. 雷龙是所有恐龙中最大的一种。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Dinosaurs have been extinct for millions of years. 恐龙绝种已有几百万年了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 alas   

int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等)

参考例句：

• Alas!The window is broken!哎呀！窗子破了！
• Alas,the truth is less romantic.然而，真理很少带有浪漫色彩。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

14 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

15 hurdle   

n.跳栏，栏架；障碍，困难；vi.进行跨栏赛

参考例句：

• The weather will be the biggest hurdle so I have to be ready.天气将会是最大的障碍，所以我必须要作好准备。
• She clocked 11.6 seconds for the 80 metre hurdle.八十米跳栏赛跑她跑了十一秒六。

16 imprisoned   

下狱，监禁( imprison的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was imprisoned for two concurrent terms of 30 months and 18 months. 他被判处30个月和18个月的监禁，合并执行。
• They were imprisoned for possession of drugs. 他们因拥有毒品而被监禁。

17 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

18 initiated   

n. 创始人 adj. 新加入的 vt. 开始，创始，启蒙，介绍加入

参考例句：

• He has not yet been thoroughly initiated into the mysteries of computers. 他对计算机的奥秘尚未入门。
• The artist initiated the girl into the art world in France. 这个艺术家介绍这个女孩加入巴黎艺术界。

19 ranting   

v.夸夸其谈( rant的现在分词 )；大叫大嚷地以…说教；气愤地)大叫大嚷；不停地大声抱怨

参考例句：

• Mrs. Sakagawa stopped her ranting. 坂川太太戛然中断悲声。 来自辞典例句
• He was ranting about the murder of his dad. 他大叫她就是杀死他父亲的凶手。 来自电影对白

20 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

21 squeak   

n.吱吱声，逃脱；v.（发出）吱吱叫，侥幸通过；（俚）告密

参考例句：

• I don't want to hear another squeak out of you!我不想再听到你出声！
• We won the game,but it was a narrow squeak.我们打赢了这场球赛，不过是侥幸取胜。