经济学人:深陷危机 泰国局势急转直下

 　　Thailand

　　泰国

　　Everything is broken

　　支离破碎

　　Long in crisis, Thailand is close to the brink¹. Without compromises on both sides, it may well collapse²

　　深陷危机，泰国局势急转直下。对峙双方若互不让步，该国局势可能即将崩溃。

　　LOOK on and despair. A decade ago Thailand was a shining example—rare proof that in South-East Asia a vibrant³ democracy could go hand-in-hand with a thriving economy. Contrast that with Thailand on May 7th, left in disarray⁴ after the Constitutional Court demanded that the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra (pictured), step down with nine members of her cabinet over her decision to remove the country's head of national security in 2011, in favour of a relative.

　　泰国前景堪忧。十年以前，泰国还是东南亚国家中鲜少能够证明生机勃勃的政体可以和蓬勃发展的经济并驾齐驱的耀眼榜样。与昨日的辉煌相比，5月7日的泰国则是一片混乱。泰国总理英拉·西那瓦（如图）2011年让自己一位亲属取代现任国家安全部部长的决定使得宪法法院要求她与9名内阁成员辞去相应职务。

　　For all the pretence⁵ of due legal process and distaste at Ms Yingluck's nepotism⁶, this was not an offence that merited the ousting⁷ of a prime minister. Instead, the ruling is a measure of quite how far Thailand has fallen, how deeply it is divided and how badly its institutions are broken. Unless Thais step back from the brink, their country risks falling into chaos⁸ and anarchy⁹, or outright¹⁰ violence.

　　所有对于相应法定程序的托词以及英拉裙带关系的愤恨都不足以成为剥夺一国总理的理由。与之相反的是，国家的管理是衡量泰国落后他国有多远，分裂问题多么恶劣以及政体破坏多么严重的标准。除非泰国能够走出危机，否则该国面临着混乱的无政府状态或者激烈的暴力冲突的危险。

　　泰国.jpg

　　In kicking out Ms Yingluck, the court accomplished¹¹ what months of anti-government street protests in Bangkok, led by a firebrand populist, Suthep Thaugsuban, had failed to bring about. It is far from the first time the court has ruled against her. To break the impasse¹² on Bangkok's streets, she had called a February election, but the opposition¹³ Democrat¹⁴ Party boycotted¹⁶ it, and the court struck down the results. Ms Yingluck had been limping on as a caretaker. The message for many Thais is that the court is on the side of a royalist establishment bent¹⁷ on purging¹⁸ politics of Ms Yingluck, who came to office three years ago in a landslide¹⁹ election, and—especially—her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, himself ousted²⁰ in a coup²¹ in 2006 and now in self-imposed exile.

　　叛乱煽动者素贴?特素班在曼谷领导的反政府街头抗议数月以逼走英拉的任务由宪法法院完成了。这个情形远不及法院首次对英拉做出裁决的情况。为了打破曼谷街头抗议的僵局，她曾召集了一次二月选举，但是反对党民主党对此抵制抗议，而且法院扼杀了选举结果。英拉像一个临时代理人一般的艰难前行。在许多泰国人看来，法院支持建立一个君主主义制度以取代英拉政府统治。英拉三年前在一次压倒性的选举胜利中走上政坛。值得一提的是，英拉的哥哥塔克辛?西那瓦在2006年一次政变中下台，现在也无奈流落异乡。

　　The entire apparatus²² of government has been sucked into the conflict between two visions of Thailand. For Mr Thaksin's supporters, his emergence²³ in 2001 marked a welcome break from decades of rule by corrupt²⁴ coalitions²⁵ or military juntas²⁶. Helped by a new democratic constitution in 1997, he gave a voice to Thailand's majority, many of them in his northern and north-eastern heartland. In their view, he transformed the lives of the poorest with health and education programmes, and he challenged Thailand's privileged elites²⁷ in the bureaucracy, the army, the judiciary and the palace corridors of an ailing²⁸ King Bhumibol Adulyadej. To the Thaksinites, both the recent street protests and the Constitutional Court's activism are the work of an establishment that cannot accept the results of the ballot²⁹ box: in 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2011 parties loyal to Mr Thaksin won elections fair and square, and Ms Yingluck's Pheu Thai party would have done so, too, in February.

　　泰国整个国家机制已经深陷于该国两种观点的冲突之中。对于素贴的支持者来说，2001年他的出现标志着几十年来腐败的党派勾结或者军队派别统治已被终结并迎来新的开始。1997年在一项新的民主体制的帮助下，他为泰国大多数人的利益振臂呐喊，这些人的大多数来自于他的北方地区和东北腹地。在他们看来，素贴通过医疗和教育计划改变了最贫困地区人们的生活，而且他勇于挑战泰国官僚体制下的特权阶级，军队，司法机关，以及体弱的泰国国王普密蓬?阿杜德代表的皇权阶层。在塔克辛拥护者眼里，最近的街头抗议以及宪法法院的动作都是由于反对党无法接受选举投票失败的结果：为塔克辛效劳的政党曾在2001，2005,2007以及2011年的大选中光明正大的获得选举，而英拉所在的泰党在2月份本也可以做到这样。

　　There is merit in this interpretation³⁰. But so is there in what the Shinawatras' enemies have to say. In particular, they charge that Thaksinite governments have been run for the benefit of his rural supporters (a mad scheme to subsidise rice threatens to bust³¹ the budget) and of the billionaire himself. There is something creepy about the way that the exiled, unelected Mr Thaksin has been calling the shots from Dubai.

　　这种解释有其可取之处。但是这也是西那瓦家族的反对者所要说的。尤其是这些人指责塔克辛政府一直为他的农村支持者以及他这个亿万富翁谋求福利（一项补贴粮食危机来破坏预算的愚蠢计划）。对于被流放的，未经选举的塔克辛先生在迪拜暗中谋划的传闻听来也是十分可怖。

　　Now stalemate beckons³². An election is supposed to happen. Ms Yingluck should have had the right to confront her undemocratic royalist foes³³ at the ballot box. But an election is no solution because the opposition will boycott¹⁵ it. Mr Suthep has proposed a “people's council” of the great and the good, but Thaksinites will rightly see it as a stitch-up designed to keep them out. The irreconcilable³⁴ differences between the two sides have swallowed up Thailand's courts, its army and even the monarchy—and left Thailand at the abyss. Investors³⁵, having borne years of simmering discontent, are taking fright. Blood has already been spilled this year. The prospects³⁶ of wider violence are growing as Thaksinite supporters threaten conflict on the streets.

　　现在僵局仍然持续。该国应该进行新的选举。英拉应该通过选举来获得直面其非民主保皇主义反对者的权力。但是大选不是解决问题的方法，因为反对者仍将抵制选举。素贴应经提议为显要人物建立一个“人民议会”，但是塔克辛支持者会认为这是一个旨在将他们排除在外的圈套。敌对双方无法调和的差异已经湮没了泰国的法院，军队甚至整个君主政体，并让其陷入万劫不复之地。忍受满腹不满情绪多年的投资者也整天惶惶不可终日。满腔热血已在今年挥洒殆尽。随着塔克辛支持者扬言街头冲突，更大范围内的暴力活动将会愈演愈烈。

　　Stop and think

　　停战深思

　　If Thailand is to avoid that catastrophe³⁷, both sides must now step back from the brink. The starting point is the devolution of Thailand's highly centralised system of governance. At the moment only the capital has a democratically elected governor, yet all 76 provinces should also have one—this would not only help a rumbling³⁸ Muslim insurgency³⁹ in the south, it would also offer a prize to Mr Suthep, because the winner of the national election would no longer win all the power. In return for this reform, the Democrat Party must pledge to accept election results; and in return for that, the Pheu Thai should run without a Shinawatra at the helm.

　　如果泰国想要避免灾祸，对峙双方必须在局势崩溃之前各退一步。首先要做的就是要将泰国高度集中的管理权力下放。目前只有该国首都拥有一个民主选举的管理者，而其他的76个省 份也应该有这样的管理者——这不仅可以协助解决日渐激烈的南方穆斯林暴乱，还将会为素贴带来额外之喜，因为小全国大选的获胜者将不再是大权独握。作为这场改革的回报， 民主党必须保证接受选举结果；而为了回报这个结果，泰党应该在没有西那瓦家族成员掌权的情况下运行。

　　Goodwill⁴⁰ is in short supply in Thailand today. Yet by fighting on, the two sides risk bringing ruination to their country. Compromise would, by comparison, be a small price to pay.

　　在今日的泰国，友好善意是如此稀缺。而双方持续对峙面临着给国家带来巨大祸端的风险。通过对比，双方的妥协让步将会是比较小的代价。

　　1.in favour of 赞成；支持

　　例句:The newspaper is now weighted in favour of trivia.

　　这份报纸如今倾向于报道一些花边消息。

　　2.fail to 未能；不能

　　例句:Many of Britain's beaches fail to meet minimum standards of cleanliness.

　　英国许多海滩连最起码的卫生标准都达不倒。

　　3.come to 苏醒；达到；来到

　　例句:I do hope you'll be able to come to the wedding.

　　我确实希望你能来参加婚礼。

　　4.loyal to 忠于；忠诚于

　　例句:They were unflinchingly loyal to their friends.

　　他们对朋友忠贞不渝。

1 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

2 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

3 vibrant   

adj.震颤的，响亮的，充满活力的，精力充沛的，(色彩)鲜明的

参考例句：

• He always uses vibrant colours in his paintings. 他在画中总是使用鲜明的色彩。
• She gave a vibrant performance in the leading role in the school play.她在学校表演中生气盎然地扮演了主角。

4 disarray   

n.混乱，紊乱，凌乱

参考例句：

• His personal life fell into disarray when his wife left him.妻子离去后，他的个人生活一片混乱。
• Our plans were thrown into disarray by the rail strike.铁路罢工打乱了我们的计划。

5 pretence   

n.假装，作假；借口，口实；虚伪；虚饰

参考例句：

• The government abandoned any pretence of reform. 政府不再装模作样地进行改革。
• He made a pretence of being happy at the party.晚会上他假装很高兴。

6 nepotism   

n.任人唯亲；裙带关系

参考例句：

• The congressman lashed the president for his nepotism.国会议员抨击总统搞裙带关系。
• Many will regard his appointment as the kind of nepotism British banking ought to avoid.很多人会把他的任命看作是英国银行业应该避免的一种裙带关系。

7 ousting   

驱逐( oust的现在分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• The resulting financial chaos led to the ousting of Bristol-Myers' s boss. 随后引发的财政混乱导致了百时美施贵宝的总裁下台。
• The ousting of the president has drawn widespread criticism across Latin America and the wider world. 洪都拉斯总统被驱逐时间引起拉丁美洲甚至全世界的广泛批评。

8 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

9 anarchy   

n.无政府状态；社会秩序混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• There would be anarchy if we had no police.要是没有警察，社会就会无法无天。
• The country was thrown into a state of anarchy.这国家那时一下子陷入无政府状态。

10 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

11 accomplished   

adj.有才艺的；有造诣的；达到了的

参考例句：

• Thanks to your help,we accomplished the task ahead of schedule.亏得你们帮忙,我们才提前完成了任务。
• Removal of excess heat is accomplished by means of a radiator.通过散热器完成多余热量的排出。

12 impasse   

n.僵局；死路

参考例句：

• The government had reached an impasse.政府陷入绝境。
• Negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse.谈判似乎已经陷入僵局。

13 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

14 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

15 boycott   

n./v.(联合)抵制，拒绝参与

参考例句：

• We put the production under a boycott.我们联合抵制该商品。
• The boycott lasts a year until the Victoria board permitsreturn.这个抗争持续了一年直到维多利亚教育局妥协为止。

16 boycotted   

抵制，拒绝参加( boycott的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Athletes from several countries boycotted the Olympic Games. 有好几国的运动员抵制奥林匹克运动会。
• The opposition party earlier boycotted the Diet agenda, demanding Miyaji's resignation. 反对党曾杯葛国会议程，要宫路下台。

17 bent   

n.爱好，癖好；adj.弯的；决心的，一心的

参考例句：

• He was fully bent upon the project.他一心扑在这项计划上。
• We bent over backward to help them.我们尽了最大努力帮助他们。

18 purging   

清洗； 清除； 净化； 洗炉

参考例句：

• You learned the dry-mouthed, fear-purged, purging ecstasy of battle. 你体会到战斗中那种使人嘴巴发干的，战胜了恐惧并排除其他杂念的狂喜。
• Purging databases, configuring, and making other exceptional requests might fall into this category. 比如清空数据库、配置，以及其他特别的请求等都属于这个类别。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

19 landslide   

n.(竞选中)压倒多数的选票；一面倒的胜利

参考例句：

• Our candidate is predicated to win by a landslide.我们的候选人被预言将以绝对优势取胜。
• An electoral landslide put the Labour Party into power in 1945.1945年工党以压倒多数的胜利当选执政。

20 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

21 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

22 apparatus   

n.装置，器械；器具，设备

参考例句：

• The school's audio apparatus includes films and records.学校的视听设备包括放映机和录音机。
• They had a very refined apparatus.他们有一套非常精良的设备。

23 emergence   

n.浮现，显现，出现，（植物）突出体

参考例句：

• The last decade saw the emergence of a dynamic economy.最近10年见证了经济增长的姿态。
• Language emerges and develops with the emergence and development of society.语言是随着社会的产生而产生，随着社会的发展而发展的。

24 corrupt   

v.贿赂，收买；adj.腐败的，贪污的

参考例句：

• The newspaper alleged the mayor's corrupt practices.那家报纸断言市长有舞弊行为。
• This judge is corrupt.这个法官贪污。

25 coalitions   

结合体，同盟( coalition的名词复数 )； （两党或多党）联合政府

参考例句：

• History testifies to the ineptitude of coalitions in waging war. 历史昭示我们，多数国家联合作战，其进行甚为困难。
• All the coalitions in history have disintegrated sooner or later. 历史上任何联盟迟早都垮台了。

26 juntas   

n.以武力政变上台的军阀( junta的名词复数 )

参考例句：

27 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

28 ailing   

v.生病

参考例句：

• They discussed the problems ailing the steel industry. 他们讨论了困扰钢铁工业的问题。
• She looked after her ailing father. 她照顾有病的父亲。

29 ballot   

n.（不记名）投票，投票总数，投票权；vi.投票

参考例句：

• The members have demanded a ballot.会员们要求投票表决。
• The union said they will ballot members on whether to strike.工会称他们将要求会员投票表决是否罢工。

30 interpretation   

n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理

参考例句：

• His statement admits of one interpretation only.他的话只有一种解释。
• Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing.分析与说明是个很主观的事情。

31 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

32 beckons   

v.（用头或手的动作）示意，召唤( beckon的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• He sent his ships wherever profit beckons. 他将船队派往赢利的那些地方。 来自辞典例句
• I believe history beckons again. 我认为现在历史又在召唤了。 来自辞典例句

33 foes   

敌人，仇敌( foe的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They steadily pushed their foes before them. 他们不停地追击敌人。
• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。

34 irreconcilable   

adj.（指人）难和解的，势不两立的

参考例句：

• These practices are irreconcilable with the law of the Church.这种做法与教规是相悖的。
• These old concepts are irreconcilable with modern life.这些陈旧的观念与现代生活格格不入。

35 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

36 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

37 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

38 rumbling   

n. 隆隆声, 辘辘声 adj. 隆隆响的 动词rumble的现在分词

参考例句：

• The earthquake began with a deep [low] rumbling sound. 地震开始时发出低沉的隆隆声。
• The crane made rumbling sound. 吊车发出隆隆的响声。

39 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

40 goodwill   

n.善意，亲善，信誉，声誉

参考例句：

• His heart is full of goodwill to all men.他心里对所有人都充满着爱心。
• We paid ￡10,000 for the shop,and ￡2000 for its goodwill.我们用一万英镑买下了这家商店，两千英镑买下了它的信誉。