经济学人104:顶级商业房产,如质数般稀少

 　　A special report on property

　　关于房地产的特别报道

　　Prime numbers

　　顶级商业房产，如质数般稀少

　　Commercial property has bounced back, but only in the best locations

　　商业地产已经复苏，但是只在黄金地带

　　Shard¹ ascending²

　　“碎片”在升高

　　IN SOME corners of the commercial-property market a slight whiff of self-congratulation is in the air. Doom-laden warnings issued in 2008 and early 2009 that commercial real estate would be the “next shoe to drop” have not come to pass. Opportunistic investors³ hoping to cash in on the sale of distressed⁴ assets have been largely disappointed. Governments have intervened less than they have in housing (there are fewer votes in office buildings and shopping centres). “Commercial real estate was not at the heart of the crisis,” says a big fund manager in Germany.

　　在商业地产市场的某些角落里，空气中漂浮着一丝自得的气息。商业地产将会是“下一只掉落的鞋子”——这条2008年和2009年初发出的警告并没有最终成为现实。那些希望靠出售问题资产赚钱的机会型投资者多半沮丧而归。政府对商业地产的干预比对住宅所做的干预要少（写字楼和购物中心的选票少）。“商业地产不是这次危机的中心，” 德国一个大型基金的经理人这样说。

　　Investors’ interest in the asset class is growing, thanks in large part to the extreme macroeconomic environment. Near-zero interest rates make the yields on offer from property look attractive. The cashflow from tenants⁶ is more stable than that from equities⁷, where values zigzag⁸ day by day and dividends⁹ can suddenly be suspended by the management. And unlike many types of bonds, property is seen as a useful hedge against inflation because rental¹⁰ agreements can be renegotiated with tenants to reflect rising prices. Bulls note that Norway’s $543 billion state pension fund, one of the world’s largest sovereign-wealth funds, is starting to allocate¹¹ money to property. It made its first real-estate investment in January, spending ￡452m ($723m) on properties in London’s Regent Street.

　　投资者对资产类别的兴趣正在增加，很大一部分原因是极端的宏观经济环境。近于零的利率使得房产提供的收益看起来很具吸引力。来自承租者的现金流比来自股票的更稳定，后者的价值日复一日地曲折前行，而且红利可能突然就被管理方中止。而且和许多类型的债券不同，房地产被看作是对冲通胀的利器，因为可以与承租者重新协商租赁协议，以此来反映上涨的物价。看涨者们注意到，挪威5430亿美元的政府养老金（世界上最大的主权财富基金之一）正在开始向房地产分配资金。该基金在一月份进行了第一笔房地产投资，把4.52亿英镑（7.23亿美元）投在伦敦丽晶街(Regent Street)上的房产。

　　Led by Britain, which had seen the steepest fall of the big property markets (see chart 5), values are rising again. According to IPD, which provides information on property markets, British commercial property delivered a total return of 15.2% in 2010, its strongest performance for four years. Investing in property has paid off handsomely for many since late 2009. Global REITs performed twice as well as global stocks and bonds in the 12 months to the end of September 2010. Take a closer look at this resurgence¹², however, and the picture becomes more complicated.

　　经历了商业房产巨幅下跌的英国（参见图表5）正在带领商业房产的价值再次攀升。根据IPD提供的房地产市场信息，英国商业地产市场2010年的总回报率为15.2%，是四年来表现最为强劲的一年。对于很多人来说，自2009年末以来，投资房地产收益颇丰。在截止到2010年九月的12个月里，全球房地产投资信托(REITs)的表现要好过全球股票和债券的两倍之多。但是如果近距离看这次复苏，情况将变得更为复杂。

　　In one crucial respect, the bubble in commercial property was less dangerous than in the residential¹³ sector¹⁴: there was no development boom and hence no oversupply¹⁵. The enormous amount of liquidity¹⁶ sloshing around the system was directed at acquiring existing properties rather than building new ones. “This was an excess of capital, not an excess of cranes,” says Jonathan Gray, the boss of Blackstone’s real-estate business.

　　一个关键点是，商业房产的泡沫不如住宅板块的泡沫危险：没有开发热，因此也就没有过度供给。该系统周围庞大充盈的流动资金被用于购买已有的房产，而不是用于新建。“这是资金的过剩，不是起重机的过剩”，黑石集团(Blackstone)房地产业务总裁乔纳森·格雷(Jonathan Gray)说。

　　That flood of money drove up debt burdens and property values and reduced yields (the ratio of the income flow from a property to its value). Madness became routine: the 110% loan-to-value financing for a hotel in Germany, offered to a borrower with no knowledge of either hotels or Germany; the fact that yields on Grafton Street in central Dublin, hardly a retail¹⁷ paradise, came close to those in some of the world’s most prestigious¹⁸ shopping streets; the willingness of staid fund managers to base their investment case on capital gains rather than rental growth.

　　这些流动资金增加了债务负担和房产价值，减小了投资收益（来自房产的收益与其价值之比）。疯狂成为常态：在德国，贷款投资一家酒店的贷款价值比(loan-to-value)达110%，而借款方既不懂酒店，也不懂德国；都柏林市中心的格拉芙顿街(Grafton Street)很难说得上是一个购物天堂，但是那里的投资收益接近世界上最知名的购物街；古板的基金经理更愿意让他们的投资案例凭借资本收益获得成功，而不是靠租金的增长。

　　If the market had been left to run for a little longer, it might have become crazier still. Just before the crisis broke, there had been talk of securities made up exclusively of riskier¹⁹ development loans. But in contrast to the overbuilding of the early 1990s, when rapid rental growth persuaded developers to dig lots of holes in the ground, this time lenders and investors were disciplined enough to want income-producing properties; they were just not disciplined enough to price the risks correctly.

　　如果这个市场当时再持续一段时间，可能还会变得更疯狂。就在危机爆发之前，曾讨论过完全由高风险的开发贷款所构成的债券。但是和1990年代的过度开发相反（那时快速增长的租金促使开发商在地上挖了许多坑），这次贷款者和投资者头脑还是足够清醒，他们想要的是投资型的房产；他们只是在正确计算风险上头脑不够清醒。

　　Indeed, if there is going to be an imbalance in commercial property now, it is more likely to involve a scarcity²⁰ of supply. As prospects²¹ for economic growth gradually improve, demand from large companies, which are sitting on lots of money and are able to take a long-term view of the business cycle, is picking up. Yet there is very little development in the pipeline²², at least in the rich world. Estimates from CBRE show that 65% of the new office space due to come on stream in big cities between 2010 and 2012 is in Asia and just 8% in North America. As a result, says Brett White, the firm’s boss, vacancy²³ rates will go down and rents, which have already stabilised in many places, will go up: “Power is very quickly shifting from the tenant⁵ to the landlord.”

　　实际上，如果商业地产出现失衡的话，更有可能是供给不足。随着经济前景的逐渐变好，那些资金雄厚并且对商业周期能够长远考虑的大公司，其需求正在增加。但是新开发的商业楼盘却是少之又少，至少发达国家是这种情况。据世邦魏理仕公司(CBRE)的估计，2010~2012年将开工的新建商业楼盘中，亚洲占到65%，而北美只占8%。“结果就是，空置率将下降，出租率将上升（许多地方的出租率已经非常稳定了），” 该公司的总裁布雷特·怀特说，“权力将很快从承租方转到出租方。”

　　Some are well placed to benefit from a prospective²⁴ squeeze on space. A cluster of new buildings is going up in London, with nicknames like the Shard, the Walkie-Talkie and the Cheesegrater. Francis Salway, the boss of Land Securities, a big developer, says his firm made a conscious decision at the start of 2010 not to be too risk-averse. It has since committed itself to development projects costing over ￡1 billion. Mr Salway reckons that there could be a shortage of new office space in London by the end of this year; completion of his next project in the city is not due until 2012.

　　一些开发商已经准备好从预期的拥挤空间中受益。伦敦的一批新楼盘正在拔地而起，并有了“碎片(Shard)”、“步话机(Walkie-Talkie)”和“干酪擦(Cheesegrater)”这样的绰号。大型开发商“土地证券”(Land Securities)的老板弗朗西斯·萨尔维(Francis Salway)说，他的公司在2010年初做出了一个清醒的决定——公司将不会过分规避风险。该公司自那时起用在开发项目上的资金超过了10亿英镑。萨尔维认为，到今年年底，伦敦的新建写字楼可能会呈现短缺状况；他在伦敦城下一个项目的完工要等到2012年。

　　Quality streets

　　顶级街道

　　Outside London, the chances of an immediate²⁵ surge in new building are slight. Debt financing for development projects, which lenders inevitably²⁶ class as risky²⁷, is very tight. Land Securities has been able to start building in part because it raised lots of equity²⁸ during 2009 and in part by joining with others. The Walkie-Talkie building, work on which started in January and is due to be completed in 2014, is a joint²⁹ venture with Canary Wharf³⁰ Group. And London is arguably a special case: the city’s leases tend to be unusually long, often 25 years, which means that tenants in old offices whose leases are due to expire in the next few years may want to up sticks for a modern building.

　　在伦敦之外，新楼盘迅速矗立的机会渺茫。针对房地产开发项目的债务融资非常紧张；银行不可避免地会把这样的项目定级为“危险”。“土地证券”之所以能够开始新楼盘的建设，部分原因是该公司在2009年募集了许多资金，还有部分原因是这些项目是与其它公司联合开发的。一月开工、定于2014年完工的“步话机”大厦就是与金丝雀码头集团(Canary Wharf Group)的合作项目。而且伦敦可以说是一个特别的例子：该市房屋的租期往往格外长，经常是25年的期限，这意味着旧写字楼中的租户，如果其租约几年内就到期的话，可能会想要搬到一个更现代的大楼中。

　　In any case, all this talk of rising values and space constraints³¹ can be misleading. The recovery in commercial property is confined to the best, or “prime”, assets. Prime is an overused word in the industry, but in essence it means the best buildings in the best locations, with good tenants and long leases. For offices, that means buildings right in the centre of big, international cities. For other types of commercial property it might mean something different: a great logistics centre with a long lease, for instance, might be near a motorway³² and nothing much else.

　　不管怎样，所有这些升值以及空间紧张的说法可能颇具误导性。商业地产的复苏只局限于最好的、或者说“顶级(prime)”资产。“顶级”是这个产业中被过度使用的一个词，但是这个词的本意是指位于黄金地带的最优质房产，而且有很好的租户和长期的租约。对于写字楼来说，“顶级”意味着位于国际化大城市中心地带的房产。对于其它类型的商业地产来说，这个词的意思可能有些不一样: 一个拥有长期租约的大型物流中心，比方说，可能位于高速公路附近，此外就没有多少其它的要求了。

　　In the boom the distinction between top-quality assets and lower-quality ones (also known as “secondary” and “tertiary”) blurred³³. Money chased property of all sorts, closing the yield gap between the best and the rest. Not any more. Investors are now generally much more conservative, in part because they have more of their own equity at stake. That points them towards big cities where it is easier to get into and out of investments and where demand from high-quality tenants is concentrated. Money that had been raised to buy distressed assets was also switched into safer ones when it became clear that bargain properties were not coming to market in great numbers (of which more below).

　　在繁荣时期，顶级资产和质量较差资产（也被称作“二级”和“三级”资产）之间的界限很模糊。各种级别的房产都是资金追逐的对象，这拉近了优质房产和其它房产之间的收益差。但是这种现象已不复存在了。现在的投资者一般更为保守，部分原因是他们更多地拿自己的钱作赌注。这把他们的触角引向了大城市；投资大城市，资金更容易退出，而且高级租户的需求较为集中。当廉价房产明显不会大量进入市场的时候（下面会有更多内容关于此），为购买问题资产而筹来的钱也在向更安全的资产转移。

　　In a faint echo of the boom itself, this weight of money chasing “safe” assets carries risk. Some think that prices for prime properties have already bounced back too far. “The next bubble may be under way in some markets,” says Matthias Danne of Deka, the largest provider of open-ended property funds in Germany. Correlations³⁴ also tend to go up when property companies chase the same sort of tenants and locations: a portfolio³⁵ of city-centre office buildings full of blue-chip banks looked stable until the crisis. And the desire for secure, long-term leases can easily backfire if interest rates rise, which will make yields look much less appealing. “A real snapback in interest rates is the big real-estate risk,” says Mr Gray at Blackstone.

　　和繁荣时期有点类似，这些追逐“安全”资产的资金也带着风险。有些人认为顶级房产的价格反弹得太厉害。“下一个泡沫可能正在某些市场酝酿着，” Deka（德国最大的开放式基金提供商）的马提亚·丹纳(Matthias Danne)说。当房地产公司追逐同样类型的租户和地点时，关联性也在增加：城市中心一批满是蓝筹银行的写字楼看起来很稳定，直到危机的发生。而且如果利率升高的话（这使得租赁收益的吸引力变得大打折扣），对于安全、长期租约的渴望会很容易消退。“利率真正的好转对房地产来说是个很大的风险，” 黑石公司(Blackstone)的格雷先生说。

　　Blackstone’s strategy is to invest opportunistically: it looks for empty and run-down buildings that it can improve and sell. For less ambitious investors, the obvious way to find better-value properties will be to take on risk gradually. That might mean accepting shorter lease lengths, with a view to refurbishing a building on expiry and then increasing rents. It might mean staying in the biggest cities but plumping for lower-quality assets, or moving into the best locations in secondary cities. Or it might mean going for the very best assets in less attractive countries.

　　黑石公司是机会主义式的投资策略：寻找可以修缮并卖出的破旧空置房。对于魄力稍逊的投资者，找到价值更高房产显而易见的办法是逐步承担风险。这可能意味着接受更短的租期，并打算在期满之后对楼进行重新翻修，然后提高租金。还可能意味着在大城市里选择质量较差的资产，或者进入二级城市的黄金地带。或者可能意味着在不那么有吸引力的国家寻求最优良资产。

　　Some fund managers make the case for prime properties in Spain. In December Deka bought a shopping centre in Bilbao for

1 shard   

n.（陶瓷器、瓦等的）破片，碎片

参考例句：

• Eyewitnesses spoke of rocks and shards of glass flying in the air.目击者称空中石块和玻璃碎片四溅。
• That's the same stuff we found in the shard.那与我们发现的碎片在材质上一样。

2 ascending   

adj.上升的，向上的

参考例句：

• Now draw or trace ten dinosaurs in ascending order of size.现在按照体型由小到大的顺序画出或是临摹出10只恐龙。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 distressed   

痛苦的

参考例句：

• He was too distressed and confused to answer their questions. 他非常苦恼而困惑，无法回答他们的问题。
• The news of his death distressed us greatly. 他逝世的消息使我们极为悲痛。

5 tenant   

n.承租人；房客；佃户；v.租借，租用

参考例句：

• The tenant was dispossessed for not paying his rent.那名房客因未付房租而被赶走。
• The tenant is responsible for all repairs to the building.租户负责对房屋的所有修理。

6 tenants   

n.房客( tenant的名词复数 )；佃户；占用者；占有者

参考例句：

• A number of tenants have been evicted for not paying the rent. 许多房客因不付房租被赶了出来。
• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。

7 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

8 zigzag   

n.曲折，之字形；adj.曲折的，锯齿形的；adv.曲折地，成锯齿形地；vt.使曲折；vi.曲折前行

参考例句：

• The lightning made a zigzag in the sky.闪电在天空划出一道Z字形。
• The path runs zigzag up the hill.小径向山顶蜿蜒盘旋。

9 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

10 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

11 allocate   

vt.分配，分派；把…拨给；把…划归

参考例句：

• You must allocate the money carefully.你们必须谨慎地分配钱。
• They will allocate fund for housing.他们将拨出经费建房。

12 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

13 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

14 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

15 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

16 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

17 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

18 prestigious   

adj.有威望的，有声望的，受尊敬的

参考例句：

• The young man graduated from a prestigious university.这个年轻人毕业于一所名牌大学。
• You may even join a prestigious magazine as a contributing editor.甚至可能会加入一个知名杂志做编辑。

19 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

20 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

21 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

22 pipeline   

n.管道，管线

参考例句：

• The pipeline supplies Jordan with 15 per cent of its crude oil.该管道供给约旦15%的原油。
• A single pipeline serves all the houses with water.一条单管路给所有的房子供水。

23 vacancy   

n.（旅馆的）空位，空房，（职务的）空缺

参考例句：

• Her going on maternity leave will create a temporary vacancy.她休产假时将会有一个临时空缺。
• The vacancy of her expression made me doubt if she was listening.她茫然的神情让我怀疑她是否在听。

24 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。

25 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

26 inevitably   

adv.不可避免地；必然发生地

参考例句：

• In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
• Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。

27 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

28 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

29 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

30 wharf   

n.码头，停泊处

参考例句：

• We fetch up at the wharf exactly on time.我们准时到达码头。
• We reached the wharf gasping for breath.我们气喘吁吁地抵达了码头。

31 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

32 motorway   

n.高速公路，快车道

参考例句：

• Our car had a breakdown on the motorway.我们的汽车在高速公路上抛锚了。
• A maniac driver sped 35 miles along the wrong side of a motorway at 110 mph.一个疯狂的司机以每小时110英里的速度在高速公路上逆行飙车35英里。

33 blurred   

v.（使）变模糊( blur的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）难以区分；模模糊糊；迷离

参考例句：

• She suffered from dizziness and blurred vision. 她饱受头晕目眩之苦。
• Their lazy, blurred voices fell pleasantly on his ears. 他们那种慢吞吞、含糊不清的声音在他听起来却很悦耳。 来自《简明英汉词典》

34 correlations   

相互的关系( correlation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• One would expect strong and positive correlations between both complexes. 人们往往以为这两个综合体之间有紧密的正相关。
• The correlations are of unequal value. 这些对应联系的价值并不相同。

35 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。