VOA慢速英语2020--大选后美国对朝政策将如何演变?

What Will US Policy Toward North Korea Be After the Election?

America's two main presidential candidates have expressed different ideas about policy toward nuclear-armed North Korea.

President Donald Trump¹ has expanded the U.S. relationship with North Korea. Early in his term, he threatened to "totally destroy" the country. Later, he became the first siting U.S. president to meet with a North Korean leader.

Former Vice² President Joe Biden is competing against Trump in the November presidential election. He has promised a more traditional policy. He has also signaled a more antagonistic³ relationship toward North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Biden has called the leader a "dictator" and a "thug." North Korea answered Biden's words with insults.

When he accepted the nomination⁴ as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee⁵, Biden promised that the "days of cozying up to dictators" would be over if he wins in November.

Biden said he would increase sanctions and work with allies as well as China to pressure North Korea.

Strategic patience again?

Many experts say they have heard Biden's ideas about North Korea before. As vice president, Biden helped oversee⁶ former President Barack Obama's policy of "strategic patience." Its goal was to place economic and military pressure on North Korea until the country was ready to negotiate.

Biden has not used the phrase "strategic patience" to describe his plans. But his administration might end up with a policy of "strategic patience by default" if it does not offer some kind of action to get "the North Koreans back to negotiations," said Jenny Town. She is a North Korea specialist with the Washington D.C.-based Stimson Center, a research group.

Observers say Biden's campaign comments suggest that he is not interested in meeting with Kim anytime soon. Biden has said he would not continue Trump's personal diplomacy⁷ with Kim. He said it gives the North Korean leader too much importance.

Instead, Biden promised to give more power to negotiators working on North Korea in an article in Foreign Affairs. He suggested that the diplomatic interaction would take place at lower levels at first.

The Trump administration's limited success

Trump and Kim met three times, including on June 2018 in Singapore. At the end of that meeting, the two signed a general agreement to work toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But working-level talks slowed and North Korea walked away.

Trump and Kim continued to exchange personal letters, even after North Korea restarted short-range missile tests last year. Trump says North Korea has not launched long-distance missiles or held nuclear tests because of his relationship with leader Kim Jong Un.

But Trump's friendship with Kim has not kept North Korea from continuing to quietly develop nuclear weapons. North Korea is estimated to have as many as 60 nuclear bombs, with the ability to produce several more each year.

Trump says he can make progress during a second term. He recently said he would reach a deal with North Korea "very quickly" if re-elected. But observers warn that Trump's North Korea policy will likely continue to be unpredictable.

What would a new policy look like?

There is no guarantee that a return to Obama's strategic patience would have any results.

"Strategic patience was not so effective in terms of stopping or even slowing down the progress of North Korea's ICBM or nuclear capability," said Bong Young-shik, a North Korea specialist at Seoul's Yonsei University.

From 2009 to 2016, North Korea carried out four nuclear tests. It also made progress on its ballistic missile program. It carried out another nuclear test in 2017 under Trump.

"It is time for you to deal with the problem as it is," Bong said.

A senior South Korean Blue House official who spoke⁸ to VOA last year said a return to "strategic patience" would not be useful. That is because North Korea already has the nuclear weapons it has long sought.

"Strategic patience -- what would we be waiting for?" the South Korean official asked.

A growing number of nuclear policy experts believe the United States should do something else. They say the country should place importance on reducing North Korea's nuclear weapons and making sure they are not used.

What will North Korea do?

Much will likely depend on how North Korea acts.

At the beginning of 2020, Kim warned he no longer feels limited by his freeze on long-range missile or nuclear tests. He also threatened to soon show off a new "strategic weapon."

But since those comments, North Korea has had to deal with the coronavirus crisis, disastrous⁹ floods and heavy rains. International sanctions continue to hold back North Korea's economy.

State media have at times suggested some action timed for the U.S. election. However, Kim may be reluctant to do anything that reduces the chances for diplomacy.

In July, Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader's increasingly powerful sister, said her country has "no intention of threatening the United States...if they don't touch us and hurt us."

"We are not saying we are not going to denuclearize," she said. "But we cannot denuclearize now."

I'm Mario Ritter Jr.

Words in This Story

antagonistic –adj. showing opposition¹⁰ or anger

cozying up –v. to become friendly with

sanctions –n. punishments usually in the form of trade restrictions¹¹ that are meant to force a country to obey international law

strategic –adj. related to a larger plan meant to reach a big goal in war, diplomacy or politics

by default –phrase what happens when nothing else is done to affect and outcome

realm –n. an area of activity, interest or knowledge

ballistic –adj. describing a weapon that can be shot at great speed over a long distance

reluctant –n. showing doubt or unwillingness to do something

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

3 antagonistic   

adj.敌对的

参考例句：

• He is always antagonistic towards new ideas.他对新思想总是持反对态度。
• They merely stirred in a nervous and wholly antagonistic way.他们只是神经质地，带着完全敌对情绪地骚动了一下。

4 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

5 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

6 oversee   

vt.监督，管理

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts.士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Use a surveyor or architect to oversee and inspect the different stages of the work.请一位房产检视员或建筑师来监督并检查不同阶段的工作。

7 diplomacy   

n.外交；外交手腕，交际手腕

参考例句：

• The talks have now gone into a stage of quiet diplomacy.会谈现在已经进入了“温和外交”阶段。
• This was done through the skill in diplomacy. 这是通过外交手腕才做到的。

8 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

9 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

10 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

11 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制