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WASHINGTON — The global recovery is gaining momentum1 according to new projections2 by the World Bank. But unlike previous years, the World Bank says growth in 2014 is likely to be driven in large part by high income countries.
Five years after the financial crisis - the World Bank says the global economy has reached a turning point - this time, led by advanced economies. That’s especially true of the United States, says Andrew Burns, lead author of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects3.
“For the first time in five years, high income countries are accelerating. They’re going to be contributing to global growth in a way that they haven’t for some time. That’s going to be good for developing countries,” says Burns.
The World Bank projects the U.S. economy will expand from 1.8 percent last year to about 2.8 percent in 2014. Bank chief economist4 Kaushik Basu expects a similar story in Europe which emerged from recession last year.
“The latest estimates show Europe grew by minus 0.4 percent, but we expect this to turn positive, gently positive - 1.1 is not huge growth but given Europe’s difficulties over the last six years, this is indeed good news,” says Basu.
Although political instability continues to pose downside risks for parts of North Africa and the Middle East, the biggest question mark remains5 the impact of the U.S. central bank’s decision to scale back monetary6 stimulus7.
But Basu says the effects are likely to be mild because many countries started feeling the impact of higher interest rates after the Fed signaled its intentions by the middle of 2013.
“We saw that in South Africa, in Indonesia, in India, where the exchange rate was crashing around. So I feel actually, at one level, a lot of the adjustment has already taken place. So when the tapering8 actually began as it now has from 85 billion dollars a month to 75 - it’s actually not having that much of an effect because part of the effect has already taken place,” says Basu.
Growth in China, still the world’s fastest growing economy, is expected to remain steady at 7.7 percent.
But Basu says he is most excited about prospects for the sub-Saharan regions of Africa - projected to grow 5.3 percent in 2014.
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1 momentum | |
n.动力,冲力,势头;动量 | |
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2 projections | |
预测( projection的名词复数 ); 投影; 投掷; 突起物 | |
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3 prospects | |
n.希望,前途(恒为复数) | |
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4 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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5 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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6 monetary | |
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的 | |
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7 stimulus | |
n.刺激,刺激物,促进因素,引起兴奋的事物 | |
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8 tapering | |
adj.尖端细的 | |
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