英国退欧公投相当于是自残

 What were they thinking? It is extraordinary to read a succession of official reports arguing, rightly, that a vote to leave the EU would impose long-term damage and a short-term shock. What sort of government would run such a risk, particularly when the economy has barely recovered from the financial crisis of less than a decade ago? The answer is one that has put the needs of short-term party management above its responsibility for the country’s welfare. David Cameron, prime minister, might soon be known as the man who left the UK in far-from-splendid isolation¹.

他们在想什么？看着一系列的官方报告正确说明退出欧盟将对英国造成长期损害及短期冲击，令人感到非同寻常。什么样的政府甘冒公投的风险——特别是在经济刚刚从不到10年前的金融危机中复苏之际？答案是，一个把短期政党管理需要置于对国民福利的责任之上的政府。英国首相戴维?卡梅伦(David Cameron)或许很快就会因使英国陷入不光彩的孤立而闻名。

The Treasury² has already argued that leaving the EU might lower real gross domestic product by between 3.4 and 9.5 per cent in the long term. This is broadly in line with estimates from other reputable forecasters. Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, a proponent³ of leaving, argues that the UK would enjoy a jump of 4 per cent in aggregate⁴ economic welfare after leaving the EU and adopting free trade (an unlikely choice). But this result is an outlier. It rests on implausible assumptions, not least on the impact of EU non-tariff barriers on domestic prices.

英国财政部已表示，长远来看，退出欧盟或将使英国实际国内生产总值(GDP)下降3.4%至9.5%。这大致与其他受尊敬的预测者的估计相符。而支持退欧的卡迪夫大学(Cardiff University)的帕特里克?明福特(Patrick Minford)则表示，退出欧盟并实行自由贸易（一个不大可能的选择）后，英国的总经济福利将激增4%。但这种结果是一种例外。其依据的是不合实际的假设，尤其是在欧盟非关税壁垒对国内物价的影响方面。

The Treasury has now followed up with a report on the short-term consequences of a vote to leave. In summarising the results, George Osborne, the chancellor⁶ of the exchequer⁷, has stated that the UK would suffer a “do-it-yourself” recession if it decided⁸ to leave. One might better call it a “do-it-himself” recession. For it was the government’s decision to take this risk.

财政部现已就退欧的短期后果发布了新的报告。在总结这些后果时，财政大臣乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)表示，如果决定退欧的话，英国将遭受“自身造成的”衰退。人们或许会更形象地称之为“他自身造成的”衰退。因为是英国政府决定冒这种风险的。

The new report’s main scenario⁹ predicts that GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if the UK voted to remain, unemployment would be 520,000 higher and the pound would be 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP could be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling¹⁰ 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal¹¹ Studies adds that, instead of an improvement of ￡8bn a year in the fiscal position, as the net contribution to the EU fell, the budget deficit¹² might be between ￡20bn and ￡40bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise, sharply slowing the planned fiscal consolidation¹³.

这份新报告在设想的主要情景中预测，比起留在欧盟，退欧两年后英国GDP将下降3.6%，失业人数将多出52万人，英镑将下跌12%。在更糟糕的情景下，GDP可能下降6%，失业人数多出82万，英镑下跌15%。伦敦财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)补充表示，财政状况不但不会因省下向欧盟支付的预算摊派款而得到每年80亿英镑的改善，2019-20年的预算赤字还可能比留在欧盟高出200亿至400亿英镑，极大地拖累规划中的财政整固。

Indeed, the Treasury argues, plausibly¹⁴, that the very possibility of a vote to leave is already having an impact on the economy. But an actual vote to do so in June’s referendum would crystallise this risk and create significant and immediate¹⁵ effects, via three channels.

实际上，财政部似乎颇有道理地指出，退欧的可能性本身已对经济造成了影响。但假如6月公投结果真的支持退欧的话，这种风险将变为现实，并且立即在三方面产生重大影响。

The first of these would be the tendency of households and businesses to adjust at once to becoming permanently¹⁶ poorer. This would lead to significant cuts in consumption and investment.

第一个影响将是，家庭、企业会立刻作出调整以适应长期变穷的状态。这将导致消费与投资的大幅缩减。

The second effect would come from prolonged uncertainty¹⁷ about how the UK’s relations with the EU would work out. It is difficult to exaggerate the scale of this uncertainty. After a vote to leave, the country would not know the complexion¹⁸ of its new government, the UK’s desired approach to renegotiation of its relations with the EU, or the response of the other members, let alone any final outcome. The uncertainty could also be long-lasting. Even the formation of a new government and agreement on its new approach might prove difficult. The likely leaders of a new government have also said things in this campaign that must hinder the chances of reaching an amicable¹⁹ settlement with EU partners.

第二个影响将来自英国与欧盟关系走向的长期不确定性。很难夸大这种不确定性。公投决定退出欧盟后，英国人将不知道新政府的倾向、英国重新谈判与欧盟的关系时希望采用的方式、或是欧盟其他成员国的反应，更不用说任何最终结果了。不确定性也会长期存在。甚至组建新政府以及就其处理与欧盟关系的新策略达成一致可能都有困难。可能成为新政府领导人的那些人还在这场运动中说了一些话，这些话肯定有损于英国与欧盟伙伴达成和解的机会。

The third effect would be the shift in financial conditions. Markets would at once reassess the UK’s economic prospects²⁰. Asset prices, including the exchange rate (as the Bank of England has already noted), are likely to adjust downwards²¹ immediately. An appreciable²² increase in the risk premia on UK assets could emerge. Asset price volatility²³ would also increase. The BoE might face a difficult dilemma²⁴, since there is likely to be a simultaneous rise in expected inflation and a decline in expected output in the short term.

第三个影响是金融环境的变化。市场会立刻重估英国的经济前景。正如英国央行(BoE)早已指出的，包括汇率在内的资产价格很可能立即下调。英国资产的风险溢价可能出现大幅上升。资产价格波动也将加剧。英国央行可能面临一种进退两难的境地，因为短期内可能同时出现预期通胀上升和预期产出下降并存的局面。

Official sources have described, in painful and quite plausible⁵ detail, how far the referendum unleashed²⁵ by this government is a risky²⁶ and dangerous gamble with the health of a fragile post-crisis economy. This is apart from the risks to the future cohesion²⁷ of the UK and, quite possibly, of the EU, too.

官方消息人士曾以令人痛苦但似乎非常有道理的细节，描述本届政府发起的公投，是以后危机时代脆弱经济的健康为赌注进行的一场多么冒险和危险的赌博。这还不包括对英国以及很有可能对欧盟未来凝聚力造成的风险。

This referendum is, arguably, the most irresponsible act by a British government in my lifetime. To the objection that this is to deny democracy, one can respond that the country was a successful democracy well before it embarked²⁸ upon such referendums. Furthermore, the right time for a referendum would be when the UK is asked to accept further treaty changes or some other significant alteration²⁹ in its position in the bloc³⁰. Right now one can only hope that the country does not soon learn what it means to divorce in haste and repent³¹ at leisure.

可以说，此次公投是我有生之年见过的英国政府最不负责任的行为。对于认为不进行公投就意味着拒绝民主的反对观点，我们可以回答，英国在开始进行此类公投很久前便已是成功的民主国家。此外，举行公投的合适时机应是英国被要求接受条约的进一步修订，或是接受英国在欧盟中地位的其他重大变化之时。现在，我们只能希望英国不会很快尝到匆忙退出的代价，不要事后追悔莫及。

1 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

2 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

3 proponent   

n.建议者；支持者；adj.建议的

参考例句：

• Stapp became a strong early proponent of automobile seat belts.斯塔普是力主在汽车上采用座椅安全带的早期倡导者。
• Halsey was identified as a leading proponent of the values of progressive education.哈尔西被认为是进步教育价值观的主要支持者。

4 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。

5 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

6 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

7 exchequer   

n.财政部；国库

参考例句：

• In Britain the Chancellor of the Exchequer deals with taxes and government spending.英国的财政大臣负责税务和政府的开支。
• This resulted in a considerable loss to the exchequer.这使国库遭受了重大损失。

8 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

9 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

10 sterling   

adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑)

参考例句：

• Could you tell me the current rate for sterling, please?能否请您告诉我现行英国货币的兑换率？
• Sterling has recently been strong,which will help to abate inflationary pressures.英国货币最近非常坚挺，这有助于减轻通胀压力。

11 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

12 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

13 consolidation   

n.合并,巩固

参考例句：

• The denser population necessitates closer consolidation both for internal and external action. 住得日益稠密的居民，对内和对外都不得不更紧密地团结起来。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• The state ensures the consolidation and growth of the state economy. 国家保障国营经济的巩固和发展。 来自汉英非文学 - 中国宪法

14 plausibly   

似真地

参考例句：

• The case was presented very plausibly. 案情的申述似很可信。
• He argued very plausibly for its acceptance. 他为使之认可辩解得头头是道。

15 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

16 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

17 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

18 complexion   

n.肤色；情况，局面；气质，性格

参考例句：

• Red does not suit with her complexion.红色与她的肤色不协调。
• Her resignation puts a different complexion on things.她一辞职局面就全变了。

19 amicable   

adj.和平的，友好的；友善的

参考例句：

• The two nations reached an amicable agreement.两国达成了一项友好协议。
• The two nations settled their quarrel in an amicable way.两国以和睦友好的方式解决了他们的争端。

20 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

21 downwards   

adj./adv.向下的（地），下行的（地）

参考例句：

• He lay face downwards on his bed.他脸向下伏在床上。
• As the river flows downwards,it widens.这条河愈到下游愈宽。

22 appreciable   

adj.明显的，可见的，可估量的，可觉察的

参考例句：

• There is no appreciable distinction between the twins.在这对孪生子之间看不出有什么明显的差别。
• We bought an appreciable piece of property.我们买下的资产有增值的潜力。

23 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

24 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

25 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

26 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

27 cohesion   

n.团结，凝结力

参考例句：

• I had to bring some cohesion into the company.我得使整个公司恢复凝聚力。
• The power of culture is deeply rooted in the vitality,creativity and cohesion of a nation. 文化的力量，深深熔铸在民族的生命力、创造力和凝聚力之中。

28 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。

29 alteration   

n.变更，改变；蚀变

参考例句：

• The shirt needs alteration.这件衬衣需要改一改。
• He easily perceived there was an alteration in my countenance.他立刻看出我的脸色和往常有些不同。

30 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。

31 repent   

v.悔悟，悔改，忏悔，后悔

参考例句：

• He has nothing to repent of.他没有什么要懊悔的。
• Remission of sins is promised to those who repent.悔罪者可得到赦免。