剥夺利率和汇率调整机制 欧元先天不足

 　　That Europe, and especially the eurozone, has not been doing well since the 2008 crisis is beyond dispute.

　　自2008年金融危机以来，欧洲——特别是欧元区——便一直没有健康过，这是无可争议的。

　　The single currency was supposed to bring prosperity and enhance European solidarity¹.

　　单一货币原本应该带来繁荣并巩固欧洲团结。

　　It has done just the opposite, with depressions in some countries even greater than the Great Depression.

　　但结果正好相反，一些欧元区国家遭受的萧条甚至比大萧条(Great Depression)时期更严重。

　　To answer the question about what is to be done, one has to answer another: what went wrong. Some claim that policymakers made a set of mistakes — excessive austerity and poorly designed structural² reforms.

　　要回答该怎么办这个问题，人们必须先回答另一个问题：哪里出了问题？一些人声称政策制定者犯下了一系列错误——推行过度紧缩的政策和设计糟糕的结构性改革。

　　In other words, there is nothing wrong with the euro that could not be fixed³ by putting someone else in charge.

　　换句话说，欧元没什么问题，换个人执掌就能解决问题。

　　I disagree.

　　我不这样认为。

　　There are more fundamental problems with the structure of the eurozone, the rules and institutions that guide and constitute it.

　　欧元区的结构、指引和构建欧元区的规则和制度存在更为根本的问题。

　　These may well be insurmountable, raising the prospect⁴ that the time has come for a more comprehensive rethinking of the single currency, even to the point of unwinding it.

　　这些问题可能是无法克服的，因此引出了一种前景——是时候更全面地反思欧元了，甚至可以考虑放弃欧元了。

　　Put simply, the euro was flawed at birth.

　　简单地说就是欧元先天不足。

　　It was almost inevitable⁵ that taking away two key adjustment mechanisms⁷, the interest and exchange rates, without putting anything else in their place, would make macro adjustment difficult.

　　剥夺了利率和汇率这两项关键的调整机制、而不加入取代它们的工具，几乎不可避免地使得宏观调控难以进行。

　　Add to that a central bank mandated⁸ to focus on inflation and with countries still further constrained⁹ by limits on their fiscal¹⁰ deficits¹¹, the result would be excessively high unemployment and gross domestic product consistently below potential output.

　　再加上央行的使命是聚焦于通胀，而成员国仍然进一步受到财政赤字上限的约束，结果就是超高的失业率和持续低于潜在产出的国内生产总值(GDP)。

　　With countries borrowing in a currency not under their remit¹², and with no easy mechanism⁶ for controlling trade deficits, crises too were predictable.

　　在成员国借入不在其控制范围的货币、且没有控制贸易赤字的简单机制时，爆发危机是预料之中的。

　　The alternative to adjusting nominal¹³ exchange rates is adjusting real ones — having Greek prices fall relative to German prices.

　　调整名义汇率的替代选择是调整实际汇率——使得希腊的物价相对德国物价下滑。

　　But there are no rules in place that could force a rise in German prices and the social and economic costs of forcing Greek prices to fall enough are enormous.

　　但是，没有规定可以强迫德国物价上涨，而压低希腊物价将带来巨大的社会和经济成本。

　　One might dream of Greek productivity growing faster than that of Germany as an alternative way of adjusting, but no one has figured out how to do it.

　　有人可能会指望希腊生产率增速超过德国作为调整的替代选择，但是没人知道如何实现这一点。

　　So too for Spain and Portugal.

　　西班牙和葡萄牙也是一样。

　　In the absence of a grand strategy, the troika of international institutions has flailed¹⁴ around, putting in place new rules for defining fresh milk or the size of loaves of bread.

　　在没有总体战略的情况下，国际机构的三驾马车四处出击，为新鲜牛奶的定义或者面包的标准出台琐碎新规。

　　Whether these are desirable can be debated; that they are not going to achieve the desired adjustment in real exchange rates cannot.

　　对于这些措施是否可取，可以展开辩论；但它们不会取得调整实际利率的理想效果是不容置疑的。

　　The rule changes needed to make the euro work are in an economic sense small.

　　从经济学角度看，只需要小幅改变规则就可以拯救欧元。

　　A common banking¹⁵ union, most importantly common deposit insurance; rules to curtail¹⁶ trade surpluses; and eurobonds or some other similar mechanism for mutualisation of debt.

　　建立一个共同的银行业联盟，最重要的是共同的存款保险体制；制定遏制贸易顺差的规则；发行欧元债券或建立其他类似的债务共担机制。

　　Monetary¹⁷ policy to focus more on employment, growth and stability, not just inflation.

　　货币政策在更大程度上关注就业、增长和稳定，而不仅仅盯着通胀。

　　Meanwhile, industrial and other policies should be orientated¹⁸ to helping¹⁹ the laggard²⁰ countries catch up to the leaders.

　　与此同时，产业和其他政策应该定位于帮助落后国家赶上领头羊。

　　Most importantly: a move away from austerity towards growth oriented fiscal policies.

　　最重要的是：从紧缩政策转向以增长为导向的财政政策。

　　But these seem well beyond the politics of Europe today, with Germany still arguing that Europe is not a transfer union.

　　但是这些似乎远远超越了当今欧洲的政治现实，德国仍然主张欧洲不是拨款联盟。

　　Good currency arrangements cannot ensure prosperity; flawed ones lead to recessions and depressions.

　　良好的货币安排无法确保繁荣；但有缺陷的安排会导致衰退和萧条。

　　And among the kinds of currency arrangements long associated with recessions and depressions are pegs²¹, where the value of one country’s currency is fixed relative to another.

　　长期以来的经验表明，与衰退和萧条关联的种种货币安排都存在挂钩机制，即一国货币的币值紧盯另一国货币。

　　A single currency is neither necessary nor sufficient for close economic and political co-operation.

　　单一货币既不是紧密经济和政治合作的必要条件，也不是此类合作的充分条件。

　　Europe needs to focus on what is important to achieve that goal.

　　欧洲需要聚焦于实现目标的关键。

　　An end to the single currency would not be the end of the European project.

　　结束单一货币并不意味着终结欧洲一体化。

　　The other institutions of the EU would remain: there would still be free trade and migration²².

　　欧盟的其他制度仍将存在：自由贸易和人口自由流动仍会继续。

　　It is important that there can be a smooth transition out of the euro, with an amicable²³ divorce, possibly moving to a flexible-euro system, with say a strong Northern Euro and softer Southern Euro.

　　有必要平稳过渡退出欧元，尽力实现友好分手，也许是转向一种灵活的欧元体系，包括强劲的北方欧元和较疲软的南方欧元。

　　Of course, none of this will be easy.

　　当然，这不会轻易实现。

　　The hardest problem will be dealing²⁴ with the legacy²⁵ of debt.

　　最难的问题是处理遗留债务。

　　The easiest way of doing that is to redenominate all euro debts as Southern Euro debts.

　　最简单的办法是对所有欧元债务进行重新计价，改为南方欧元债务。

　　As we move to a digital economy, modern technology enables a set of market-based reforms that can simultaneously²⁶ achieve the triple goals of full employment, trade balance, and fiscal balance, through credit auctions²⁷ and electronic trade tokens.

　　随着我们进入数字化经济的时代，现代技术为一系列市场化改革创造了条件，这些改革通过信贷拍卖和电子交易令牌，可以兼顾完全就业、贸易平衡和财政平衡这三大目标。

　　In the current global system, we rely on central banks to set interest rates, hoping somehow that the resulting trade balance, investment, and consumption will be right.

　　在目前的全球体系中，我们依靠央行来设定利率，指望由此带来恰到好处的贸易平衡、投资和消费。

　　They typically aren’t.

　　结果通常并不理想。

　　The alternative approach focuses on the quantities of, say, investment and trade balance, that we need, and lets the market set the price to achieve this.

　　替代选择聚焦于我们所需要的投资和贸易平衡的数量，然后让市场设定价格以实现目标。

　　Over time exchange rate variations could become more limited as institutions develop.

　　随着时间推移，汇率差异有望随着制度发展而变得更有限。

　　The flexible euro is a strategy for incorporating the advances in economic integration²⁸ already made while providing the space for reforms.

　　灵活的欧元将是一种策略，在整合经济一体化现有成果的同时，为改革提供空间。

　　The single currency was supposed to be a means to an end.

　　单一货币本应该是一种达到目的的手段。

　　It has become an end in itself — one that undermines more fundamental aspects of the European project, as it spreads divisiveness rather than solidarity.

　　但现在它本身成了一个目的——这个目的破坏了欧洲一体化更为根本的方面，因为它带来了分歧、而非团结。

　　An amicable divorce — a relatively²⁹ smooth end to the euro, perhaps instituting the proposed system of the flexible euro — could restore Europe to prosperity and enable the continent to once again focus, with renewed solidarity, on the many real challenges that it faces.

　　友好分手——相对平稳地终结欧元，或许建立上述灵活欧元制度——可能使欧洲恢复繁荣，使之可以重新团结起来，再次专注于它面临的很多真正挑战。

　　Europe may have to abandon the euro to save Europe and the European project.

　　为了拯救欧洲和欧洲一体化，欧洲或许不得不放弃欧元。

1 solidarity   

n.团结；休戚相关

参考例句：

• They must preserve their solidarity.他们必须维护他们的团结。
• The solidarity among China's various nationalities is as firm as a rock.中国各族人民之间的团结坚如磐石。

2 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

3 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

4 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

5 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

6 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

7 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 mandated   

adj. 委托统治的

参考例句：

• Mandated desegregation of public schools. 命令解除公立学校中的种族隔离
• Britain was mandated to govern the former colony of German East Africa. 英国受权代管德国在东非的前殖民地。

9 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

10 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

11 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

12 remit   

v.汇款，汇寄；豁免（债务），免除（处罚等）

参考例句：

• I hope you'll remit me the money in time.我希望你能及时把钱汇寄给我。
• Many immigrants regularly remit money to their families.许多移民定期给他们的家人汇款。

13 nominal   

adj.名义上的；(金额、租金)微不足道的

参考例句：

• The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
• The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。

14 flailed   

v.鞭打( flail的过去式和过去分词 )；用连枷脱粒；（臂或腿）无法控制地乱动；扫雷坦克

参考例句：

• The boys flailed around on the floor. 男孩子们在地板上任意地动来动去。
• The prisoner's limbs flailed violently because of the pain. 那囚犯因为疼痛，四肢剧烈地抖动着。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

16 curtail   

vt.截短，缩短；削减

参考例句：

• The government hopes to curtail public spending.政府希望缩减公共事业开支。
• The minister had to curtail his visit.部长不得不缩短访问日期。

17 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

18 orientated   

v.朝向( orientate的过去式和过去分词 )；面向；确定方向；使适应

参考例句：

• He orientated himself by finding a familiar landscape. 他寻见一处熟悉的景色，从而确定自己所处的方位。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They orientated the tennis court north and south. 他们把网球场定为南北向。 来自辞典例句

19 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

20 laggard   

n.落后者；adj.缓慢的，落后的

参考例句：

• In village,the laggard living condition must be improved.在乡村落后的生活条件必须被改善。
• Businesshas to some degree been a laggard in this process.商业在这个进程中已经慢了一拍。

21 pegs   

n.衣夹( peg的名词复数 )；挂钉；系帐篷的桩；弦钮v.用夹子或钉子固定( peg的第三人称单数 )；使固定在某水平

参考例句：

• She hung up the shirt with two (clothes) pegs. 她用两只衣夹挂上衬衫。 来自辞典例句
• The vice-presidents were all square pegs in round holes. 各位副总裁也都安排得不得其所。 来自辞典例句

22 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

23 amicable   

adj.和平的，友好的；友善的

参考例句：

• The two nations reached an amicable agreement.两国达成了一项友好协议。
• The two nations settled their quarrel in an amicable way.两国以和睦友好的方式解决了他们的争端。

24 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

25 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

26 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

27 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

28 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。

29 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。