2016年经济学人 一位在账房的朝鲜领导人

 

A Kim in his counting house

一位在账房的朝鲜领导人

The regime suffers none of the consequences of its misrule

朝鲜政权没有受到暴政所带来的恶果

A powerful army usually depends on a strong economy. Not in North Korea. Per head, the country has more soldiers than any other: 1.2m out of a population of 25m. As well as a huge conventional arsenal¹, it also has a dozen nuclear warheads and spends perhaps $3 billion a year on a nuclear programme that involves rocket launches and nuclear tests—the latest took place last week, the fourth since 2006. Yet the performance of the economy over the past four decades has been little sprightlier² than that of the Great Leader, Kim Il Sung, since he was embalmed³ in 1994.

一支强大的军队通常依赖于经济繁荣。但在朝鲜却不是这样。如果算人均军人数，朝鲜比任何一个国家军人数量都要多：2500万的人口中有120万名军人。除了常规的大批军械外，朝鲜还拥有12枚核弹头，每年花费大约30亿美元在核项目上，其中包括导弹发射和核武器测试—就在上周朝鲜进行了最新一次测试，这是自2006年来的第四次测试。但是在过去的四十年里，朝鲜经济仅仅比1994年被防腐处理的“伟大领袖”金日成在位时稍稍富有生机一点点。

North Korea suppresses most economic data. But as far as we know, from the 1950s to the 1970s its economy outgrew⁴ capitalist South Korea, as a Stalinist state marshalled all resources towards production. Today the North's per capita GDP is only one-40th of the South's—a wretched $600 a year or so, by UN estimates. The blame rests squarely with the Kim dynasty's ruinous policies. Yet the regime of Kim Jong Un, the third Kim on the throne, pays no penalty for the people's suffering. Rather, it funnels⁵ money to itself, the elites⁶ and the nuclear programme.

朝鲜封锁了其大部分经济数据，但就我们了解，从上世纪50年代一直到70年代朝鲜的经济增长速度要快于资本主义国家韩国。这是因为作为一个斯大林主义国家，朝鲜那时将全国的资源都投入到了生产当中。如今朝鲜的人均GDP只有韩国的四十分之一。据联合国估计，其人均GDP大约只有可怜的600美元每年。这直接归咎于金王朝毁灭性的政策。。但是金王朝的第三代当权者金正恩的政权却没有为人民所受的苦痛付出任何代价。甚至，它还在为自己，为朝鲜精英层，为其核项目敛财。

In a recent paper for South Korea's Asan Institute, Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC tries to estimate the scale of North Korea's economic catastrophe⁷. Given the paucity⁸ of data, Mr Eberstadt used “mirror statistics”: estimates of the country's trade divined from other countries' records. He then made adjustments for population growth and inflation. It is no straight proxy⁹ for output, but useful nonetheless.

来自华盛顿特区美国企业研究所（the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC）的尼古拉斯·埃伯施塔特（Nicholas Eberstadt）在其最近为韩国峨山研究院（South Korea's Asan Institute）撰写的一篇报告中试图估计出北朝鲜的经济灾难的规模。由于缺乏数据，他使用“镜像统计数据”：也就是用与他国的贸易记录来估计朝鲜的贸易量。然后他再根据国家的人口和通胀情况对估计出来的数据做出调整。得出的结果虽然不是朝鲜产出的直接指标，但是却是有用的。

Mr Eberstadt found that North Korea's per-capita exports last year were no higher than at their peak in the late 1970s, while per-capita imports were two-fifths lower. North Korea's economic underperformance is remarkable¹⁰ for a country that is neither a failed state nor at war, he says.

埃伯施塔特发现，朝鲜去年的人均出口没有上世纪70年代达到贸易顶峰的时候高，人均进口则下降了五分之二。他还说:朝鲜经济既没处在动荡中,也没处于战乱中，但经济却萎靡不振，这实在太不寻常。

What went wrong? The collapse¹¹ of the Soviet¹² Union, upon which the North had long relied for cheap machinery¹³ and oil, certainly hit it hard in the 1990s. Weakened by bad weather, centrally run agricultural production collapsed¹⁴ in the 1990s, leading to a famine in which hundreds of thousands of people died. International sanctions in response to North Korea's nuclear bomb-testing have also hurt.

究竟哪里出错了呢？朝鲜过去长期依赖前苏联低价进口给他们的机器与石油，上世纪90年代苏联解体对它造成了严重打击。在同一时期，糟糕的天气使由朝鲜中央领导运营的农业生产产量猛降，饥荒袭来，致使成千上万人丧生。由于朝鲜进行核弹实验，国际社会对其进行制裁，这对其经济低迷也有影响。

But the biggest problem, Mr Eberstadt argues, is that North Korea has the worst business environment of any functioning state: worse even than Cuba, Venezuela or Zimbabwe. It has no property rights or rule of law, no legal private trade and a currency prone¹⁵ to confiscation¹⁶: in 2009 the government wiped out small traders' savings¹⁷ by declaring old banknotes invalid¹⁸ and swapping¹⁹ only a few for new ones.

但是埃伯施塔特认为，朝鲜最大的问题在于该国的商业环境是所有运作正常的国家中最糟糕的，甚至比古巴，委内瑞拉和津巴布韦还不如。在朝鲜没有产权，没有法制，没有合法私营贸易，而且你的钱还很有可能遭到充公。2009年，朝鲜政府宣布旧钞作废，进而没收了小型贸易商的积蓄，并只交换了少量的新钞。

A striking feature of the North's economic decline is the quantities of foreign aid that accompanied it. North Korea has a long history of shaking down donors—first the Soviet Union, then, after 1991, America and South Korea, and most recently China. The total amount of transfers is impossible to quantify. But Mr Eberstadt estimates the sum from the North's two biggest historical backers, Russia and China, by taking its balance of trade deficits²⁰ with each of them as an approximation of net resource flows into the North—assuming that the surplus is a debt that will not be repaid. That surplus amounts to $45 billion, in today's money, between 1960 and 2013.

北朝鲜经济下滑的一个很明显的特征就是伴随着经济下滑而增长的外国援助量。北朝鲜在敲诈援助者方面可谓是经验老道了。它第一次敲诈的是前苏联，然后在1991年之后依次敲诈了美国，韩国，最近一次则是中国。朝鲜接受的援助总量无法量化估计。但是埃伯施塔特将俄罗斯和中国（两个历史上朝鲜最大的靠山）与朝鲜的贸易逆差看成是流入朝鲜净资源的近似值，从而估计出俄中对朝鲜的援助总量。这一方法的假设条件是将差额部分视作一项不用偿还的负债。从1960到2013，这一数据换算成现值总计达450亿美元。

The money seems to have helped the Kims live like god-kings and still have enough left over to pay the army, the secret police and various suppliers of nuclear materials. Yet Rüdiger Frank, an economist²¹ at the University of Vienna, thinks that increased supplies of hard currency may also have helped the informal markets for food and basic supplies that burgeoned²² as a response to the famine. These black markets are the single most benign²³ transformation²⁴ in North Korea in the past few years. Most North Koreans now depend on them for their livelihoods²⁵. The state usually turns a blind eye, since its central planning system, which is supposed to apportion²⁶ goods, has broken down. Besides, the elites demand their cut.

这一大笔援助似乎让金氏家族过上了国王般的生活，还剩下足够的钱用来支付军队，秘密警察和各种核材料的供应商。但是维也纳大学的经济学家弗兰克（Rüdiger Frank）认为硬通货供应量的增加也助长了朝鲜的黑市交易。为了应对饥荒，这种供应食物和生活必需品的黑市快速发展壮大起来。在过去几年，朝鲜的黑市就是一场良性的变革。大多数朝鲜人依赖黑市来维持他们的生活。由于本来应该起到分配商品作用的中央计划系统崩溃，政府通常对此睁一只眼闭一只眼。另外，那些朝鲜精英们也想在黑市买东西时得到些折扣。

Some see in such markets the seeds of deeper economic reform. And Mr Kim seems keener than his father to promise prosperity to his people, and even a modicum²⁷ of leisure. North Korea's capital, Pyongyang, now boasts a dolphinarium and a water park, and even a ski resort to its east. As high rises go up, the capital's fashionable sip²⁸ espressos in upmarket bars.

有些人从这类市场中看到了深化经济改革的种子。并且相比于他的父亲，金正恩似乎更加热切的希望给他的人民带去繁荣昌盛甚至给他们一点休闲活动。如今平壤新建了一所海豚馆和一所水上公园，在其东边甚至建了一滑雪胜地。随着一幢幢高楼拔地而起，平壤的时尚饮品浓咖啡进入了高档酒吧。

Yet the regime's old habits are unchanged. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the state is squeezing the donju, North Korea's new successful class of traders. According to DailyNK, a news source with informants in the North, donju are worried that they will be forced to hand over hard-currency savings to make up for the “massive dollar bomb”—ie, the expensive nuclear test—that was detonated last week.

但是金氏政权的旧习仍未改变。民间传闻，政府正在打压donju。donju是指朝鲜新兴的成功贸易商阶层。据朝鲜新闻提供源“今日朝鲜”透露，donju担心政府会强迫他们交出硬通货储蓄以此来资助“大规模美元炸弹”——例如上周进行的花销不菲的核试验。

In the absence of direction from the top, there are limits to how much can change. A new policy that seems to have been quietly rolled out from 2013 allowed farmers to retain 30% of a new production target, plus any excess over the target, to sell on informal markets. Yet local officials are not distributing the promised shares, perhaps to make up a shortfall at cooperatives, according to a report by Radio Free Asia.

由于缺乏高层的指挥，改变是有限的。一项似乎从2013年悄然开始的新政策允许农民保留新产量目标的30%。另外超出目标的部分可以留下拿黑市出售。根据亚洲自由广播（（Radio Free Asia））的一篇报导，地方官员并没有给农民之前所承诺的份额，这或许是为了弥补合作社产量短期下滑的影响。

Meanwhile, the few foreign investors²⁹ brave enough to enter North Korea must contend with an unpredictable and predatory state. In November the biggest such, Orascom, an Egyptian telecoms company that set up the North's first 3G mobile net- work, said that it thought it had lost control of its joint³⁰ venture, and has not been able to repatriate³¹ its profits.

同时，少数有勇气进入朝鲜的外国投资者不得不与这个无法预测并且损人利己的国家作斗争。其中最大的一家是埃及电讯公司Orascom，该公司在朝鲜建立了首个3G移动网络。在去年11月，它宣称自己已经失去了对合资企业的控制，无法将其利润汇回埃及。

China remains³² North Korea's lifeline. Most products for sale in the North's informal markets are from China. Last year North Korea sold over $1 billion of minerals to China, chiefly coal. As China's economy slows and the price of coal falls, the North will suffer. But the regime has a solution: putting its scant³³ resources into military power. This serves as a “battering-ram for international extortion”, as Mr Eberstadt puts it. Alas³⁴, it seems to work.

中国仍然是朝鲜的生命线。北朝鲜黑市的大部分产品都是来自中国。去年朝鲜向中国销售了总价值超过10亿美元以煤炭为主的矿物。随着中国经济的放缓，煤炭价格逐下滑，朝鲜将受到重创。但是金氏政权有一个解决方法：将其匮乏的资源用于军事武器。埃伯施塔特将这种做法看成是朝鲜对国际社会进行勒索的一种强硬手段。不幸的是，这种方法似乎起作用了。

1 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

2 sprightlier   

adj.生气勃勃的，活泼的( sprightly的比较级 )

参考例句：

3 embalmed   

adj.用防腐药物保存（尸体）的v.保存（尸体）不腐( embalm的过去式和过去分词 )；使不被遗忘；使充满香气

参考例句：

• Many fine sentiments are embalmed in poetry. 许多微妙的情感保存于诗歌中。 来自辞典例句
• In books, are embalmed the greatest thoughts of all ages. 伟大思想古今有，载入书中成不朽。 来自互联网

4 outgrew   

长[发展] 得超过（某物）的范围( outgrow的过去式 )； 长[发展]得不能再要（某物）； 长得比…快； 生长速度超过

参考例句：

• She outgrew the company she worked for and found a better job somewhere else. 她进步很快，不再满足于她所在工作的公司，于是又在别处找到一份更好的工作。
• It'soon outgrew Carthage and became the largest city of the western world. 它很快取代了迦太基成为西方的第一大城市。 来自英汉非文学 - 文明史

5 funnels   

漏斗( funnel的名词复数 )； （轮船，火车等的）烟囱

参考例句：

• Conventional equipment such as mixing funnels, pumps, solids eductors and the like can be employed. 常用的设备，例如混合漏斗、泵、固体引射器等，都可使用。
• A jet of smoke sprang out of the funnels. 喷射的烟雾从烟囱里冒了出来。

6 elites   

精华( elite的名词复数 )； 精锐； 上层集团； （统称）掌权人物

参考例句：

• The elites are by their nature a factor contributing to underdevelopment. 这些上层人物天生是助长欠发达的因素。
• Elites always detest gifted and nimble outsiders. 社会名流对天赋聪明、多才多艺的局外人一向嫌恶。

7 catastrophe   

n.大灾难，大祸

参考例句：

• I owe it to you that I survived the catastrophe.亏得你我才大难不死。
• This is a catastrophe beyond human control.这是一场人类无法控制的灾难。

8 paucity   

n.小量，缺乏

参考例句：

• The paucity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果缺乏是由于干旱造成的。
• The results are often unsatisfactory because of the paucity of cells.因细胞稀少，结果常令人不满意。

9 proxy   

n.代理权，代表权；（对代理人的）委托书；代理人

参考例句：

• You may appoint a proxy to vote for you.你可以委托他人代你投票。
• We enclose a form of proxy for use at the Annual General Meeting.我们附上委任年度大会代表的表格。

10 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

11 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

12 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

13 machinery   

n.(总称)机械，机器；机构

参考例句：

• Has the machinery been put up ready for the broadcast?广播器材安装完毕了吗？
• Machinery ought to be well maintained all the time.机器应该随时注意维护。

14 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

15 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

16 confiscation   

n. 没收, 充公, 征收

参考例句：

• Confiscation of the property of all emigrants and rebels. 没收一切流亡分子和叛乱分子的财产。 来自英汉非文学 - 共产党宣言
• Confiscation of smuggled property is part of the penalty for certain offences. 没收走私财产是对某些犯罪予以惩罚的一部分。

17 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

18 invalid   

n.病人，伤残人；adj.有病的，伤残的；无效的

参考例句：

• He will visit an invalid.他将要去看望一个病人。
• A passport that is out of date is invalid.护照过期是无效的。

19 swapping   

交换，交换技术

参考例句：

• The slow swapping and buying of horses went on. 马匹的买卖和交换就是这样慢慢地进行着。
• He was quite keen on swapping books with friends. 他非常热衷于和朋友们交换书籍。

20 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

21 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

22 burgeoned   

v.发芽，抽枝( burgeon的过去式和过去分词 )；迅速发展；发（芽），抽（枝）

参考例句：

• Willows have burgeoned forth. 柳树已经发芽。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The town burgeoned into a city. 这个集镇很快发展成一座城市。 来自辞典例句

23 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

24 transformation   

n.变化；改造；转变

参考例句：

• Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
• He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。

25 livelihoods   

生计，谋生之道( livelihood的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• First came the earliest individualistic pioneers who depended on hunting and fishing for their livelihoods. 走在最前面的是早期的个人主义先驱者，他们靠狩猎捕鱼为生。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• With little influence over policies, their traditional livelihoods are threatened. 因为马赛族人对政策的影响力太小，他们的传统生计受到了威胁。

26 apportion   

vt.（按比例或计划）分配

参考例句：

• It's already been agreed in principle to apportion the value of the patents.原则上已经同意根据专利的价值按比例来分配。
• It was difficult to apportion the blame for the accident.很难分清这次事故的责任。

27 modicum   

n.少量，一小份

参考例句：

• If he had a modicum of sense,he wouldn't do such a foolish thing.要是他稍有一点理智，他决不会做出如此愚蠢的事来。
• There's not even a modicum of truth in her statement.她说的话没有一点是真的。

28 sip   

v.小口地喝，抿，呷；n.一小口的量

参考例句：

• She took a sip of the cocktail.她啜饮一口鸡尾酒。
• Elizabeth took a sip of the hot coffee.伊丽莎白呷了一口热咖啡。

29 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

30 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

31 repatriate   

v.遣返；返回；n.被遣返回国者

参考例句：

• The government safely repatriates victims.政府安全遣返了受害者。
• In this part,you need to formulate in detail repatriate the plan.在这一部分，你需要制定详细的归国计划。

32 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

33 scant   

adj.不充分的，不足的；v.减缩，限制，忽略

参考例句：

• Don't scant the butter when you make a cake.做糕饼时不要吝惜奶油。
• Many mothers pay scant attention to their own needs when their children are small.孩子们小的时候，许多母亲都忽视自己的需求。

34 alas   

int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等)

参考例句：

• Alas!The window is broken!哎呀！窗子破了！
• Alas,the truth is less romantic.然而，真理很少带有浪漫色彩。