2018年经济学人 过剩学问:人们不会长久地持有货币(5)

 

But what if the sought-after thing was $100 itself?

但是，如果孜孜以求的是100美元自己呢？

What if people produced goods to obtain money, not merely as a transactional device to be swiftly exchanged for other things, but as a store of value, to be held indefinitely?

如果人们生产商品是为了得到钱，不仅是把它作为一种能被迅速用来交换其他东西的交易手段，而且是作为一种可以无限期持有的价值储备手段？

A widespread propensity¹ to hoard² money posed a problem for Say's vision.

一种广泛的囤钱倾向给萨伊的愿景带来了一个问题。

It interrupted the exchange of goods for goods on which his theory relied.

它中断了他的理论一直为依据的物物交换。

Unlike the purchase of newly created products, the accumulation of money provides no stimulus³ to production (except perhaps the mining of precious metals under a gold or silver standard).

与对刚生产出来的产品的购买所不同的是，钱的累积对生产提供不了任何刺激（也许在金本位制或者银本位制之下的贵金属开采是个例外）。

And if, as he had argued, an oversupply⁴ of some commodities is offset⁵ by an undersupply of others, then by the same logic⁶, an undersupply of money might indeed entail⁷ an oversupply of everything else.

再者，如其所言，如果某些商品的供给过剩因为其他商品的供给不足而得以抵消；那么，据此逻辑，钱的供给不足或许真就造成其他所有东西的供给过剩。

Say recognised this as a theoretical danger, but not a practical one.

萨伊承认，这是一种理论上的，而不是实践中的风险。

He did not believe that anyone would hold money for long.

他不相信人们会长久地持有货币。

Say's own father had been bankrupted by the collapse⁸ of assignats, paper money issued after the French Revolution.

萨伊的父亲曾经因为法国大革命后发行的纸币——纸券的崩溃而破产。

Far from hoarding⁹ this depreciating¹⁰ asset, people were in such a rush to spend it, that “one might have supposed it burnt the fingers it passed through.”

人们当时不仅不囤积这种日复一日地贬值的资产，而且还如此匆忙地把它花掉，以至于“人们可能会认为这种钱过手就会烧了手指一样。”

In principle, if people want to hold more money, a simple solution suggests itself: print more.

从理论上来说，如果人们想持有更多的钱，一种简单的解决办法就自己浮出水面：印制更多的钱。

In today's world, unlike Say's, central banks can create more money (or ease the terms on which it is obtainable) at their own discretion¹¹.

在当今世界，与萨伊的世界所不同的是，央行能够自行决定印制更多的钱（或者是放宽其赖以得到的各种条款）。

This should allow them to accommodate the desire to hoard money, while leaving enough left over to buy whatever goods and services the economy is capable of producing.

这应当能让它们在化解囤钱的渴望的同时，留出足够的钱去购买经济体能够生产的任何商品和服务。

But in practice, even this solution appears to have limits, judging by the disappointing results of monetary¹² expansions since the financial crisis of 2007-08.

但是，在实践中，根据2007-08年的金融危机以来的令人大失所望的货币扩张结果来判断，即便是这种解决方案似乎也有限的。

Today, many people scoff¹³ at Say's law even before they have fully¹⁴ appreciated it.

如今，许多人甚至在全面理解萨伊定律之前就嘲笑它。

That is a pity.

这既可悲又可叹。

He was wrong to say that economy-wide shortfalls of demand do not happen.

萨伊错就错在认为经济体的全面需求不足不会发生这件事上。

But he was right to suggest that they should not happen.

但是，在指出它们不应当发生这方面，他是对的。

Contrary to popular belief, they serve no salutary economic purpose.

与大众信念相反的是，它们服务于一无益处的经济目的。

There is instead something perverse¹⁵ about an economy impoverished¹⁶ by lack of spending.

反而倒是有经济体因为开支缺乏而致贫这种拙拙怪事。

It is like a subsistence farmer leaving his field untilled and his belly¹⁷ unfilled, farming less than he'd like even as he eats less than he'd choose.

这就像是自给自足经济下的农民纵然吃不上想吃的也会让田地荒在那里、让肚子填不饱一样。

When Say's law fails to hold, workers lack jobs because firms lack customers, and firms lack customers because workers lack jobs.

当萨伊定律站不住脚的时候，工人因为公司缺乏客户而缺乏工作，公司因为工人缺乏工作而缺乏客户。

Say himself faced both a ruinous shortage of demand for his cotton and excess demand for his treatise¹⁸.

萨伊自己就同时遇上了对他棉布需求的严重短缺和对他著作的过度需求这两件事。

The first edition sold out quickly; Napoleon blocked the publication of a second.

他的著作的第一版很快销售一空；拿破仑阻止了第二版的发行。

Eventually, Say was able to adapt, remixing his activities as his own theory would prescribe.

最后，萨伊能够适应形势，按照他自己的理论所说，重新调整了他的行为。

He quit his cotton mill in 1812, notes Mr Schoorl.

斯库尔写道，1812年，他卖掉了棉纺厂。

And within weeks of Napoleon's exile in 1814, he printed a second edition of his treatise (there would be six in all).

1814年，在拿破仑被流放的几周内，他刊印了自己著作的第二版（总共会有6版）。

In 1820 he began work once again at the Conservatory¹⁹ in Paris—not this time as a student of spinning, but as France's first professor of economics, instructing students in the production, distribution and consumption of wealth.

1820年，他再次开始在巴黎工艺美院工作——这次不是以一名纺织学生的身份，而是作为法国的首席经济学教授，在财富的生产、分配和消费等方面指导学生。

He considered it a “new and beautiful science”.

他认为这是一门“全新、美丽的科学”。

And, in his hands, it was.

在他手里，的确如此。

1 propensity   

n.倾向；习性

参考例句：

• He has a propensity for drinking too much alcohol.他有酗酒的倾向。
• She hasn't reckoned on his propensity for violence.她不曾料到他有暴力倾向。

2 hoard   

n./v.窖藏，贮存，囤积

参考例句：

• They have a hoard of food in the basement.地下室里有他们贮藏的食物。
• How many curios do you hoard in your study?你在你书房里聚藏了多少古玩？

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

5 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

6 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

7 entail   

vt.使承担，使成为必要，需要

参考例句：

• Such a decision would entail a huge political risk.这样的决定势必带来巨大的政治风险。
• This job would entail your learning how to use a computer.这工作将需要你学会怎样用计算机。

8 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

9 hoarding   

n.贮藏；积蓄；临时围墙；囤积v.积蓄并储藏（某物）( hoard的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• After the war, they were shot for hoarding. 战后他们因囤积而被枪决。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Actually he had two unused ones which he was hoarding up. 其实他还藏了两片没有用呢。 来自英汉文学

10 depreciating   

v.贬值，跌价，减价( depreciate的现在分词 )；贬低，蔑视，轻视

参考例句：

• Explain how depreciating PP&E is an example of the matching principle. 解释房产、厂房、设备折旧如何体现了配比原则？ 来自互联网
• Explain how depreciating an example of the matching principle. 解释房产、房、备折旧如何体现了配比原则？ 来自互联网

11 discretion   

n.谨慎；随意处理

参考例句：

• You must show discretion in choosing your friend.你择友时必须慎重。
• Please use your best discretion to handle the matter.请慎重处理此事。

12 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

13 scoff   

n.嘲笑，笑柄，愚弄；v.嘲笑，嘲弄，愚弄，狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• You are not supposed to scoff at religion.你不该嘲弄宗教。
• He was the scoff of the town.他成为全城的笑柄。

14 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

15 perverse   

adj.刚愎的；坚持错误的，行为反常的

参考例句：

• It would be perverse to stop this healthy trend.阻止这种健康发展的趋势是没有道理的。
• She gets a perverse satisfaction from making other people embarrassed.她有一种不正常的心态，以使别人难堪来取乐。

16 impoverished   

adj.穷困的，无力的，用尽了的v.使（某人）贫穷( impoverish的过去式和过去分词 )；使（某物）贫瘠或恶化

参考例句：

• the impoverished areas of the city 这个城市的贫民区
• They were impoverished by a prolonged spell of unemployment. 他们因长期失业而一贫如洗。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 belly   

n.肚子，腹部；(像肚子一样)鼓起的部分，膛

参考例句：

• The boss has a large belly.老板大腹便便。
• His eyes are bigger than his belly.他眼馋肚饱。

18 treatise   

n.专著；(专题)论文

参考例句：

• The doctor wrote a treatise on alcoholism.那位医生写了一篇关于酗酒问题的论文。
• This is not a treatise on statistical theory.这不是一篇有关统计理论的论文。

19 conservatory   

n.温室，音乐学院；adj.保存性的，有保存力的

参考例句：

• At the conservatory,he learned how to score a musical composition.在音乐学校里，他学会了怎样谱曲。
• The modern conservatory is not an environment for nurturing plants.这个现代化温室的环境不适合培育植物。