2018年经济学人 美国经济:特朗普的繁荣能持久吗?(2)

 

Yet the economy is not in immediate¹ danger.

然而，经济体并非处于迫在眉睫的危险之中。

And the maturity² of the business cycle cuts both ways.

而且，商业周期的成熟把这两种情况都排除了。

It makes a nonsense of Mr Trump's claims to be the author of American economic success.

特朗普有关他是美国经济成功造就者的说法纯属胡说八道。

But the economy is also capable of some welcome surprises.

但是，经济体出现某些受欢迎的惊喜也是有可能的。

America is not the only economy doing well.

美国不是唯一运转良好的经济体。

For about a year, a synchronised global expansion, taking in Europe, Asia and the Americas, has been under way.

一年来，发生在欧洲、亚洲和美洲的某种步调一致的全球扩张一直都在进行之中。

GDP growth in the euro zone, a region until recently synonymous with economic misery³, is around 2.5%, despite slower population growth than America's.

在直到最近都是经济窘境代名词的欧元区，GDP增长在2.5%左右，尽管其人口增长慢于美国。

But America stands out because of where it is in the cycle.

但是，美国的一枝独秀是因为她正处于扩张周期中。

If it continues in 2018, this expansion will become the country's second-longest ever.

倘若这一周期在2018年继续下去，这次的扩张将成为该国史上的第二长时间扩张。

True, there are perils⁴.

诚然，风险是存在的。

As the business cycle matures, there is more chance that the economy will overheat, because of bottlenecks⁵ in the jobs market;

随着商业周期走到头，由于就业市场的瓶颈，经济将会过热的可能性越来越大；

or that the central bank overtightens in order to prevent things from running too hot.

为防止事态过热，央行过度收紧的可能性也越来越大。

The longer the economy keeps growing, moreover, the more scope there is for financial imbalances, such as excess debt or frothy asset prices, to build up.

经济体越长时间地保持增长，过度债务或者是泡沫化的资产价格等金融失衡逐步累积的空间就越大。

Some warning signals are flashing.

一些警示信号正在闪烁。

The gap between long-term and short-term interest rates has narrowed, as it tends to before recessions.

长短利率差已经如其在危机之前常常好出现的那样缩小。

Yet the evidence for overheating is thin.

然而，过热的证据是贫乏的。

Inflation has trended lower this year.

今年以来，通胀一路走低。

Wage growth has picked up a little, thankfully, but shows few signs of accelerating.

好在工资增长有所抬头，但没有显现出多少加速的迹象。

Pay would have to increase by quite a lot more before rising inflation is a real worry.

工资支付不得不在日渐上升的通胀之前大幅增长是一个确切的担忧。

1 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

2 maturity   

n.成熟；完成；(支票、债券等)到期

参考例句：

• These plants ought to reach maturity after five years.这些植物五年后就该长成了。
• This is the period at which the body attains maturity.这是身体发育成熟的时期。

3 misery   

n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦

参考例句：

• Business depression usually causes misery among the working class.商业不景气常使工薪阶层受苦。
• He has rescued me from the mire of misery.他把我从苦海里救了出来。

4 perils   

极大危险( peril的名词复数 )； 危险的事（或环境）

参考例句：

• The commander bade his men be undaunted in the face of perils. 指挥员命令他的战士要临危不惧。
• With how many more perils and disasters would he load himself? 他还要再冒多少风险和遭受多少灾难？

5 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》