2019年经济学人 2018年股票市场的喜与悲 (2)

 

Others will have suffered, too. The declines in stocks imply a smaller pension pot for those about to retire.

其他人也将遭遇不幸。股票的衰退暗示着给即将退休者准备的养老金存罐变得更小。

Wherever investment income is needed to meet current expenses, belts must be tightened¹.

若需要用投资收益满足日常费用，就必须勒紧裤腰带。

Yet those who are still building up their wealth will benefit from lower asset prices. Take housing, for instance.

但那些仍在累积财富的人将从更低的资产价格中获益。以住房为例。

A fall in house prices hurts those who are "long" property, those who own more housing than they will personally need over their lifetime.

房价下跌会对那些拥有多套住房的“长”房屋所有者造成伤害。

Call such people "landlords". But it also helps those people—call them "tenants²"—who hope either to buy a property or to trade up to a bigger one in future.

这些人被称为“房东”。但房价下跌也帮助那些—称他们为“房客”—想要买房或是想要换一个更大房子的人。

Falling house prices make it easier for them to reach their goal.

房价下跌让他们的目标更容易实现。

A similar logic³ applies to stockmarkets. Just as a home is a stream of future housing services, a stock is a stream of future dividends⁴.

类似逻辑也适用于股票市场。就像房子是一串未来住房服务一样，股票也是一串未来股息。

Lower stock prices may be bad for stockmarket "landlords", but they are good for stockmarket "tenants".

更低的股票价格或许对股市“房东”不是件好事，但是对股市“房客”来说却是件好事。

Warren Buffett has written that those who plan to be net buyers of stocks in the future should rejoice when stocks fall.

沃伦·巴菲特曾写到，在股票下跌的时候，那些计划成为未来股票净购买者的人应该庆祝。

An investor⁵ of this kind who cheers rising stock prices is like "a commuter⁶ who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day's supply".

庆祝股价上涨的这类投资者就像是“一位在油气价格上涨后庆祝的通勤者一样，因为他的气箱里装满了一天的供应量”。

Fears of recession are not the only reason for falling stock prices.

对衰退的恐惧不是股价下跌的唯一原因。

Part of the recent decline is down to prospects⁷, such as Brexit or growing protectionism, that will do permanent damage to the global economy,

近期部分下跌是由于对前景的瞻望，比如脱欧或不断增长的保护主义，这将对全球经济、

and thus to company profits and stockmarket returns. Yet even in this regard there is something to be said for a correction in asset prices.

公司利润以及股市收益造成永久的损伤。但即便在这点上，对资产价格进行修正也是有好处的。

When excessive optimism is built into asset prices, wasteful⁸ investment often follows.

当对资产价格过于乐观时，紧随其后的通常是投资浪费。

Think of the homes built in out-of-the-way places in America, Spain and Ireland to satisfy speculative⁹ demand during the global housing boom of the noughties.

想想在21世纪的头10年中，全球房屋市场的繁荣，美国、西班牙和爱尔兰为了满足投机需求而在偏远地区建造的那些房屋。

Investors¹⁰, like those who use ecstasy¹¹ or alcohol, face a choice. They can feel good now or later.

投资者，比如那些服用摇头丸或酒精的人，面临一项选择。他们可以现在或晚些时候high起来。

Genuinely long-term investors will always choose later.

长期投资者总会选择后者。

They want to buy stocks as cheaply as possible and when they get a higher premium¹² for owning risky¹³ assets.

他们想要购买尽可能便宜的股票，并且是在他们为拥有风险资产而获得更高度保险费之时。

Recessions are an inevitable¹⁴ part of the risks investors face. As with hangovers, they feel interminable. But eventually they clear.

衰退是投资者所面临的风险中不可避免的一部分。和宿醉一样，感觉没完没了，但终将会变得清晰。

1 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

2 tenants   

n.房客( tenant的名词复数 )；佃户；占用者；占有者

参考例句：

• A number of tenants have been evicted for not paying the rent. 许多房客因不付房租被赶了出来。
• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。

3 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

4 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

5 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

6 commuter   

n.(尤指市郊之间)乘公交车辆上下班者

参考例句：

• Police cordoned off the road and diverted commuter traffic. 警察封锁了道路并分流交通。
• She accidentally stepped on his foot on a crowded commuter train. 她在拥挤的通勤列车上不小心踩到了他的脚。

7 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

8 wasteful   

adj.（造成）浪费的，挥霍的

参考例句：

• It is a shame to be so wasteful.这样浪费太可惜了。
• Duties have been reassigned to avoid wasteful duplication of work.为避免重复劳动浪费资源，任务已经重新分派。

9 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 ecstasy   

n.狂喜，心醉神怡，入迷

参考例句：

• He listened to the music with ecstasy.他听音乐听得入了神。
• Speechless with ecstasy,the little boys gazed at the toys.小孩注视着那些玩具，高兴得说不出话来。

12 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

13 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

14 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。