2019年经济学人 人口即命运? (3)

 

It is possible that population is destiny, other things equal, but other things are never equal.

如果其他事物都不发生变化，那么人口或许就是命运，但是其他事物不可能不变。

And so a plague here, or a fateful decision by a Chinese emperor there, can set a region down a path that wipes out the advantages of population.

这里一场瘟疫或是那里中国皇帝的一个重大决定便可以决定一个国家的道路，这条道路可能会消除人口的优势。

Perhaps those advantages must be harnessed by the right sorts of institutions,

或许那些优势必须被正确的制度或包容的文化

or an accommodating culture—which take far longer to develop or adopt than technologies do to emerge.

加以利用—发展或采用这些制度或文化所需时间比技术涌现所需时间更久。

There is no academic consensus¹ regarding what determines economic fortunes over long time horizons, important though the question is.

关于从长远来看是什么决定了经济命运还没有达成学术共识，虽然这个问题很重要。

Alternatively, one might argue that conditions have changed in ways that amplify² the power of population.

或者有人认为条件变化的方式放大了人口的力量。

A billion brains seem a more economically potent³ force in an era of mass education, in contrast to the mass illiteracy⁴ that prevailed in the past.

和过去大批文盲盛行的时代相比，在大众教育时代，十亿人在经济上的力量似乎更加强大。

But crucially, Asia's recent rise has not been the result of a spurt⁵ of indigenous⁶ innovation given its impetus⁷ by the size of its population.

但关键是，鉴于其人口规模的动因，亚洲的近期增长并非是自主创新冲刺的结果，

Rather, it has happened as part of a wave of globalisation, which aided the transfer of technological⁸ know-how⁹.

而是全球化浪潮的一部分，这种全球化浪潮协助了技术专门技能的转移。

Openness to exchanges of goods and ideas, or indeed to immigration, is not an immutable¹¹ parameter¹²,

对商品交换和想法交流或对外来移民的开放态度不是一个不可改变的参数，

but subject to change based on human preferences.

但却会受到人类偏好变化的支配。

Mr Desmet and his co-authors reckon that eliminating all barriers to migration¹⁰ would raise global welfare threefold—

Desmet先生和他的共著者们认为消除所有移民障碍将会让全球福利增长三倍—

an extraordinary figure that reflects yawning differences in output per person between countries, and the unrealised human potential they represent.

这是一个非凡的数字，反映了国家和他们所代表的未实现的人才潜能之间人均实际产出的巨大差异。

As intriguing¹³ as it is to consider the directions in which macro variables such as population or GDP are likely to nudge the world in coming centuries,

研究在未来几世纪人口或GDP等宏变量将推动世界朝哪个方向前进很有趣，

it is human decisions that will determine which places and people are given the opportunity to become rich.

赋予哪些地方和哪些人致富的机遇是由人类决策所决定的。

National populations matter to the extent that borders do.

国家人口和边界的重要性相当。

It is a depressing notion, but a plausible¹⁴ one, that in half a millennium's time they will matter still.

这是一个令人沮丧的观念，但也是一个看似合理的观念，在半个世纪中，它们仍然很重要。

1 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

2 amplify   

vt.放大，增强；详述，详加解说

参考例句：

• The new manager wants to amplify the company.新经理想要扩大公司。
• Please amplify your remarks by giving us some examples.请举例详述你的话。

3 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

4 illiteracy   

n.文盲

参考例句：

• It is encouraging to read that illiteracy is declining.从读报中了解文盲情况正在好转，这是令人鼓舞的。
• We must do away with illiteracy.我们必须扫除文盲。

5 spurt   

v.喷出；突然进发；突然兴隆

参考例句：

• He put in a spurt at the beginning of the eighth lap.他进入第八圈时便开始冲刺。
• After a silence, Molly let her anger spurt out.沉默了一会儿，莫莉的怒气便迸发了出来。

6 indigenous   

adj.土产的，土生土长的，本地的

参考例句：

• Each country has its own indigenous cultural tradition.每个国家都有自己本土的文化传统。
• Indians were the indigenous inhabitants of America.印第安人是美洲的土著居民。

7 impetus   

n.推动，促进，刺激；推动力

参考例句：

• This is the primary impetus behind the economic recovery.这是促使经济复苏的主要动力。
• Her speech gave an impetus to my ideas.她的讲话激发了我的思绪。

8 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

9 know-how   

n.知识；技术；诀窍

参考例句：

• He hasn't got the know-how to run a farm.他没有经营农场的专业知识。
• I don't have much know-how about engines.发动机方面的技术知识我知之甚少。

10 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

11 immutable   

adj.不可改变的，永恒的

参考例句：

• Nothing in the world is immutable.世界没有一成不变的东西。
• They free our minds from considering our world as fixed and immutable.它们改变着人们将世界看作是永恒不变的观点。

12 parameter   

n.参数，参量

参考例句：

• It is the parameter of distribution.这就是分布参数。
• One parameter which always comes into play is the national economy.国民经济是一个经常起作用的参量。

13 intriguing   

adj.有趣的；迷人的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的现在分词)；激起…的好奇心

参考例句：

• These discoveries raise intriguing questions. 这些发现带来了非常有趣的问题。
• It all sounds very intriguing. 这些听起来都很有趣。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。