2019年经济学人 货币市场和美联储(3)

 

The surplus reserves banks hold in their deposit accounts at the Fed fell from $2.2trn in 2017 to $1.4trn now.

银行在美联储的存款账户中持有的盈余准备金从2017年的2.2万亿美元降至现在的1.4万亿美元。

No one knows how much surplus cash banks need to feel comfortable. That depends partly on regulations,

没人知道银行需要多少剩余现金才能安心。这部分取决于监管，

which have increased the amount of cash banks must hold as a buffer¹, but also on business sentiment.

监管提高了银行必须持有的现金额以作缓冲，但也取决于商业情绪。

Banks' near-death experience in 2008-09 has left them with a strong desire to hold plenty of extra cash.

银行在2008年至2009年的濒死经历，让他们强烈希望持有大量额外现金。

Economists² have attempted to estimate the level at which banks would start to squirm, most coming up with estimates of $1.2trn-1.5trn.

经济学家试图估计银行将开始动荡的程度，多数人估计为1.2万亿至1.5万亿美元。

Usually banks have at least this much on hand. But they may not have had on September 16th, for quite benign³ reasons.

通常银行手头至少有这么多钱。但由于一些良性原因，他们可能在9月16日这一天手头没有多钱。

That was the deadline for quarterly corporatetax payments, meaning companies asked banks for more cash than usual.

这一天是公司每季度缴纳公司税的最后期限，这意味着公司向银行索要的现金比平时多。

The Treasury⁴ had issued $77bn-worth of bills the previous week. The buyers, mostly banks, also had to pay on September 16th.

上一周，美国财政部发行了价值770亿美元的国债。买家，多为银行，也需要在9月16日付款。

The Fed expected these events, said Jerome Powell, its chairman, but not such an extreme reaction.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储预料到了这些事件，但没想到会有如此极端的反应。

As banks' cash piles shrank, they grew reluctant to lend to companies and other counterparties.

随着银行现金储备萎缩，他们越来越不愿意贷款给公司和其他交易对手。

The repo rate spiked⁵. Some banks stepped in, lending to companies at elevated rates.

回购利率飙升。一些银行介入，以高利率贷款给企业。

But then those banks tried to borrow from other banks in the federal funds market, pushing up the rate. This prompted the Fed to intervene.

但后来这些银行试图从联邦基金市场的其他银行借款，从而推高了利率。这促使美联储介入。

Cash would have become scarce sooner or later, says Bill English of Yale University.

耶鲁大学的比尔·英格利希表示，现金迟早会变得稀缺。

In a growing economy—especially one with a rising government deficit—the demand for bank cash increases over time.

在一个不断增长的经济体中—特别是在一个政府赤字不断增加的经济体中—对银行现金的需求会随着时间的推移而增加。

The Fed now faces a choice. It could return to conducting frequent open market operations to pin down interest rates, as before the crisis.

现在美联储面临着一个选择。它可能会像危机前一样，恢复频繁的公开市场操作，以稳定利率。

Or it could keep the current system and avert⁶ future cash shortages

或者，它可以保持当前的体系，避免未来的现金短缺

by expanding its balance-sheet enough to keep the banking⁷ system permanently⁸ saturated⁹ with liquidity¹⁰, even as demand for cash grows.

方式是通过充分扩张其资产负债表以使银行系统永远保持流动性饱和，即使对现金的需求不断增长。

On September 18th Mr Powell suggested that the Fed would opt¹¹ for the latter,

9月18日，鲍威尔暗示美联储将选择后者，

saying it wanted reserves to be ample enough to avoid operations of the sort carried out in recent days.

并称美联储希望外汇储备足够充足，以避免最近几天实施的那种操作。

He also announced technical tweaks that will mean banks are compensated¹² a little less handsomely for cash deposited at the Fed,

他也宣布了一些技术上的调整，这意味着银行存入美联储的现金获得的补偿少了一些，

which might encourage them to lend a little more in the repo market instead.

这或许能够鼓励他们转而在回购市场多放贷。

It is unclear how quickly balance-sheet expansion might be resumed. This week's events suggest it may be soon.

目前尚不清楚资产负债表的扩张会以多快的速度恢复。本周的事件表明或许很快。

As Mr Powell said after the Fed's meeting, "I think we'll learn quite a lot in the next six weeks."

正如鲍威尔在美联储会议后所说的，“我想在接下来的六周我们会学到很多。”

1 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

4 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

5 spiked   

adj.有穗的；成锥形的；有尖顶的

参考例句：

• The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句

6 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

9 saturated   

a.饱和的，充满的

参考例句：

• The continuous rain had saturated the soil. 连绵不断的雨把土地淋了个透。
• a saturated solution of sodium chloride 氯化钠饱和溶液

10 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

11 opt   

vi.选择，决定做某事

参考例句：

• They opt for more holiday instead of more pay.他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
• Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority?各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗？

12 compensated   

补偿，报酬( compensate的过去式和过去分词 )； 给（某人）赔偿（或赔款）

参考例句：

• The marvelous acting compensated for the play's weak script. 本剧的精彩表演弥补了剧本的不足。
• I compensated his loss with money. 我赔偿他经济损失。