2020年经济学人 新冠病毒对世界经济的影响(1)

Leaders

来源于2月15日刊《社论》版块

Disease and growth

疾病和发展

Viral slowdown

病毒放缓

How China’s epidemic¹ could hurt the world economy

这次病毒会如何影响世界经济

When shocks hit the global economy, Wall Street looks to history to see what will happen next. The outbreak in China of covid-19, a respiratory disease, invites a comparison to the last one, SARS. In that outbreak in 2003 China su?ered a sharp hit to its growth, followed by a strong rebound³. Although covid-19 has now claimed more lives than SARS, investors⁴ remain optimistic that its economic e?ects will follow a similar path.

当全球经济受到冲击时，华尔街回顾历史，预测接下来发生的事情。呼吸疾病covid-19在中国的爆发，让人联想起上一次的SARS。在2003年那场疫情爆发中，中国经济增长遭受了重创，随后出现了强劲反弹。尽管covid-19现在比SARS致死率更低，但投资者仍然乐观地认为，此次疫情对经济的影响将遵循类似的路径。

On February 13th Hubei province, centre of the outbreak, announced 14,840 new con²?rmed cases, a sharp rise. That was because it suddenly started including CT-scan diagnoses, not just speci?c tests for the virus. Although the statistical⁵ fog is thick, indicators⁶ such as the fall in new cases outside Hubei and the total of suspected cases suggest that the rate of fresh infections may be trending lower.

2月13日，疫情中心湖北省宣布新增确诊病例14840例，这是一个激增的数字。这是因为现在开始了CT扫描诊断确诊，而不仅仅是特定的病毒检测。尽管统计数据并不完全精准，但湖北以外地区新增病例和疑似病例总数的下降等指标表明，新增病例的比例可能正在下降。

Most economists⁷ have thus only nudged down their forecasts for full-year global growth. Chinese stocks and commodities, which track economic prospects⁸, have clawed back ground after initial falls. Global stockmarkets are higher than they were in January, when the severity of the outbreak became clear. We hope their optimism is justi?ed. Yet the comparison makes two assumptions: in supposing that containing the virus maps neatly⁹ onto a better economic outlook; and in thinking that the world still works as it did when SARS was a threat.

因此，多数经济学家只是略微调低了对全球全年增长的预测。中国股市和大宗商品紧跟经济预期，在最初的下跌后已回到基线。全球股市情况好于1月份，当时疫情的严重程度已经很明显。我们希望他们的乐观是有道理的。然而，这种比较有两个假设：假设控制住病毒会带来更好的经济前景；认为世界仍然像受SARS影响时那样运转。

1 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

2 con   

n.反对的观点，反对者，反对票，肺病；vt.精读，学习，默记；adv.反对地，从反面；adj.欺诈的

参考例句：

• We must be fair and consider the reason pro and con.我们必须公平考虑赞成和反对的理由。
• The motion is adopted non con.因无人投反对票，协议被通过。

3 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

6 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

9 neatly   

adv.整洁地，干净地，灵巧地，熟练地

参考例句：

• Sailors know how to wind up a long rope neatly.水手们知道怎样把一条大绳利落地缠好。
• The child's dress is neatly gathered at the neck.那孩子的衣服在领口处打着整齐的皱褶。