2020年经济学人 新型冠状病毒和市场动荡(1)

When America, the hub of global capital, is this far into an economic expansion and a bull market,

当作为全球资本中心的美国深陷入经济扩张和牛市时，

investors¹ feel two conflicting impulses. They hope that the good times will last, so they are reluctant to pull their money out.

投资者感到了两种相互矛盾的冲动。他们希望这种好日子能够持续，所以他们不愿意把钱拿出来。

They also worry that the party may suddenly end. This is the late-cycle mindset.

他们也担心盛会突然终止。这就是晚周期的思维模式。

It reacts to occasional growth scares—about trade wars or corporate² debt or some other upset.

它会对偶尔出现的增长恐慌做出反应——比如贸易战争或公司债务或其他让人心烦的事情。

But it tends not to take them seriously for long. Covid-19 is a grave threat to the market's poise³.

但严肃态度不会持续太长。新型冠状病毒（Covid-19）对市场的稳定构成了严重威胁。

News from Italy of the biggest coronavirus outbreak outside Asia

2月24日，意大利爆发亚洲以外最严重的冠状病毒疫情的消息

led to a 3.4% decline in the S&P 500 index of American stocks on February 24th, the biggest one-day fall for two years.

导致美国标准普尔500指数下跌3.4%，创下两年来最大单日跌幅。

The rout⁴ encompassed⁵ global stockmarkets, which were down sharply from highs reached earlier in February.

股市暴跌波及全球股市，全球股市从2月初的高点大幅下跌。

As The Economist⁶ went to press, the markets remained nervy.

本期《经济学人》付印时，股市依然紧张。

In the face of such uncertainty⁷, more days like Monday are to be expected.

在这种不确定性面前，预计还会有更多像周一这样的日子。

Investors have, sensibly, tried to calculate which assets are most exposed to the shock. Copper⁸, an economic bellwether⁹, plunged¹⁰.

投资者理智地试图计算哪些资产最容易受到冲击。作为经济领头羊的铜，价格暴跌。

The worst-hit stocks were of firms that rely on far-flung supply chains, such as carmakers;

受打击最严重的是那些依赖于分布广泛供应链的公司，比如汽车制造业；

or are directly affected¹¹ by restrictions¹² on travel, such as airlines;

或是直接受到旅行限制影响的公司，如航空业；

or are most exposed to a China-led global slowdown, such as oil firms. Investors scrambled¹³ for safe assets.

或最容易受到中国引领的全球经济放缓影响的公司，如石油公司。投资者争相购买安全资产。

Gold reached a seven-year high. The dollar rallied.

黄金价格创下七年新高。美元上涨。

The yield on ten-year Treasury¹⁴ bonds fell to an all-time low of 1.29% on February 27th.

2月27日，十年期国债收益率跌至历史最低点1.29%。

But there is also an uneasy sense that the virus could trigger a bigger rupture¹⁵ in financial markets

但人们也有一种不安的感觉——这种病毒可能会触发金融市场更大的破裂，

that have been going up by so much for so long that pockets of dangerous risk-taking are bound to exist.

长期以来，金融市场上涨幅度如此之大，必然存在一些危险的冒险行为。

Two worries are top of mind: the opaque¹⁶ edifice¹⁷ of financial instruments that rely on low volatility¹⁸, and the swollen¹⁹ credit markets.

人们最担心的两个问题是：依赖于低波动性的金融工具的不透明大厦，以及膨胀的信贷市场。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

3 poise   

vt./vi. 平衡，保持平衡；n.泰然自若，自信

参考例句：

• She hesitated briefly but quickly regained her poise.她犹豫片刻，但很快恢复了镇静。
• Ballet classes are important for poise and grace.芭蕾课对培养优雅的姿仪非常重要。

4 rout   

n.溃退，溃败；v.击溃，打垮

参考例句：

• The enemy was put to rout all along the line.敌人已全线崩溃。
• The people's army put all to rout wherever they went.人民军队所向披靡。

5 encompassed   

v.围绕( encompass的过去式和过去分词 )；包围；包含；包括

参考例句：

• The enemy encompassed the city. 敌人包围了城市。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I have encompassed him with every protection. 我已经把他保护得严严实实。 来自英汉文学 - 双城记

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

8 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

9 bellwether   

n.系铃的公羊，前导，领导者，群众的首领

参考例句：

• University campuses are often the bellwether of change.大学校园往往引领变革的新潮。
• For decades the company was the bellwether of the British economy.几十年来，这家公司一直是英国经济的晴雨表。

10 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

11 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

12 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

13 scrambled   

v.快速爬行( scramble的过去式和过去分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Each scrambled for the football at the football ground. 足球场上你争我夺。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He scrambled awkwardly to his feet. 他笨拙地爬起身来。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

15 rupture   

n.破裂；(关系的)决裂；v.(使)破裂

参考例句：

• I can rupture a rule for a friend.我可以为朋友破一次例。
• The rupture of a blood vessel usually cause the mark of a bruise.血管的突然破裂往往会造成外伤的痕迹。

16 opaque   

adj.不透光的；不反光的，不传导的；晦涩的

参考例句：

• The windows are of opaque glass.这些窗户装着不透明玻璃。
• Their intentions remained opaque.他们的意图仍然令人费解。

17 edifice   

n.宏伟的建筑物(如宫殿，教室)

参考例句：

• The American consulate was a magnificent edifice in the centre of Bordeaux.美国领事馆是位于波尔多市中心的一座宏伟的大厦。
• There is a huge Victorian edifice in the area.该地区有一幢维多利亚式的庞大建筑物。

18 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

19 swollen   

adj.肿大的，水涨的；v.使变大，肿胀

参考例句：

• Her legs had got swollen from standing up all day.因为整天站着，她的双腿已经肿了。
• A mosquito had bitten her and her arm had swollen up.蚊子叮了她，她的手臂肿起来了。