2020年经济学人 欧元区面临经济考验(1)

Leaders

来源于《社论》版块

The euro area

欧元区

Cut to the chase

开门见山

Look out for a panic about the single currency. If it cannot integrate further it will break up

警惕对单一货币的恐慌。如果它不能进一步整合，就会分裂

The euro area is set for its deepest downturn and its sternest economic test yet. Some forecasters expect GDP to shrink by nearly a tenth in 2020. But as history is being made, it is also being repeated. Talks between Europe’s politicians about the covid-19 crisis have descended¹ into yet another ugly row over which countries gain and lose from a common currency. The acrimony has its roots in Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis in 2010-12, when stricken southerners pleaded for solidarity² and northerners refused to bail³ out what they saw as bad behaviour.

欧元区将面临有史以来最严重的经济衰退和最严峻的经济考验。一些预测者预计，到2020年，GDP将缩水近十分之一。但在创造历史的同时，历史也在重演。欧洲政客之间关于covid-19危机的谈判已演变成另一场关于各国从共同货币中得失的丑陋争吵。2010年至2012年的欧洲主权债务危机是这场口水战的根源，当时饱受打击的南方人呼吁团结一致，而北方人则拒绝救助他们眼中的不良行为。

Back then the euro area avoided collapse⁴ largely thanks to action by the European Central Bank (ECB). The euro zone has since had a chance to pass deep reforms in order to deal with its fragility once and for all, but the time was ill-used. Having given up their monetary⁵ independence long ago and failed to cut public debt, some countries cannot deal with the crisis on their own. They need help from stronger economies in the north.

当时，多亏欧洲中央银行(ECB)的行动，欧元区才得以避免崩溃。为了一劳永逸地解决自身的脆弱性，欧元区本来有机会通过深度改革，但却没有好好利用这个机会。一些国家早就放弃了货币独立，也未能削减公共债务，因此无法独自应对危机。他们需要北方强大经济体的帮助。

To avoid a deep and enduring slump⁶, the southern countries need government spending that will shore up their economies today and relaunch them when the pandemic has abated⁷. Yet this spending will sharply increase their debts. In Italy public borrowings are already worth 135% of GDP, and that figure could easily rise to well over 150% with even a modest stimulus⁸. If its government spends freely, investors⁹ could panic about an eventual¹⁰ default or debt restructuring. Greece, Spain— and even France—face the same hard choices.

为了避免严重而持久的经济衰退，南方国家需要政府支出来支撑他们今天的经济，并在流感大流行减弱后重新启动经济。然而，这些支出将大幅增加他们的债务。在意大利，公共借款已经占到GDP的135%，而且这个数字很容易上升到150%以上，即使是一个温和的刺激。如果政府大手大脚地花钱，投资者可能会对最终的违约或债务重组感到恐慌。希腊、西班牙——甚至法国——都面临着同样的艰难选择。

The temptation is to dither. Southern borrowing costs are higher than the north’s but not near panic levels. Italy’s ten-year bonds yield about two percentage points more than Germany’s. After fumbling¹¹, the ECB has tried to limit the damage by acquiring bonds and relaxing rules about what it buys.

诱惑是犹豫。韩国的借贷成本高于朝鲜，但还没有达到恐慌的程度。意大利十年期债券的收益率比德国高出约两个百分点。在摸索之后，欧洲央行试图通过购买债券和放松购买规定来限制损失。

1 descended   

a.为...后裔的，出身于...的

参考例句：

• A mood of melancholy descended on us. 一种悲伤的情绪袭上我们的心头。
• The path descended the hill in a series of zigzags. 小路呈连续的之字形顺着山坡蜿蜒而下。

2 solidarity   

n.团结；休戚相关

参考例句：

• They must preserve their solidarity.他们必须维护他们的团结。
• The solidarity among China's various nationalities is as firm as a rock.中国各族人民之间的团结坚如磐石。

3 bail   

v.舀（水），保释；n.保证金，保释，保释人

参考例句：

• One of the prisoner's friends offered to bail him out.犯人的一个朋友答应保释他出来。
• She has been granted conditional bail.她被准予有条件保释。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

6 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

7 abated   

减少( abate的过去式和过去分词 )； 减去； 降价； 撤消（诉讼）

参考例句：

• The worker's concern about cuts in the welfare funding has not abated. 工人们对削减福利基金的关心并没有减少。
• The heat has abated. 温度降低了。

8 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

11 fumbling   

n. 摸索,漏接 v. 摸索,摸弄,笨拙的处理

参考例句：

• If he actually managed to the ball instead of fumbling it with an off-balance shot. 如果他实际上设法拿好球而不是fumbling它。50-balance射击笨拙地和迅速地会开始他的岗位移动，经常这样结束。
• If he actually managed to secure the ball instead of fumbling it awkwardly an off-balance shot. 如果他实际上设法拿好球而不是fumbling它。50-50提议有时。他从off-balance射击笨拙地和迅速地会开始他的岗位移动，经常这样结束。