2020年经济学人 列克星顿专栏--美国大选的双重否定(3)

These are valid¹ concerns, which will not be fully² allayed³ until the returns are in. (Representative G.K. Butterfield, whose congressional district includes Greenville, said his biggest fear was of a covid-19 surge a week before the election.) Yet Lexington’s day on the trail suggested the Democrats⁴ may be worrying a bit too much.

这些都是合理的担忧，而且在疫情恢复之前，这样的担忧不会完全消除。（格林维尔选举区的众议员巴特菲尔德说，他最担心的是在大选前一周出现新冠肺炎激增。）然而笔者一天的行程表明，民主党人可能过虑了。

Voting for the least bad option is not a novelty to black voters. The exuberance⁵ of their support for Barack Obama (“The most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen,” recalled Ms Perkins) was an anomaly. They generally take a starkly⁶ pragmatic view of politics. For many black voters, elections represent more a source of protection than a promise of future perfection. Their dogged support for the often-disappointing Democrats illustrates⁷ that. Republicans tend to ascribe it to leftist identity politics; it is more a defensive⁸ measure against a majority-white party that has often sought to repress their voting rights. Mr Trump⁹, who this week randomly¹⁰ accused his opponents of wanting to build “projects” in the leafy suburbs, has hardened that suspicion, and thereby¹¹ drawn¹² a predictable African-American response. Asked what would get her neighbours to the polls in numbers, Ms Perkins replied: “Fear. Fear of covid. Fear of losing your job and house. Fear of being shot while watching TV in your house.” As an indicator¹³ of likely black turnout, enthusiasm for the candidate may be overrated.

对于黑人选民来说，投票给不是最差的选择并非新鲜事。他们对奥巴马的大力支持是一种反常现象。（“我见过最美好的事情，”珀金斯回忆道）。他们通常对政治持有非常务实的观点。对许多黑人选民来说，选举更多代表着一种保护，而不是对完美的未来的承诺。他们对那些往往会令人失望的民主党人的支持说明了这一点。共和党人倾向于将这种现象归因于他们对左派的政治认同；这更像是一种针对多数白人政党的防御措施，白人政党常常试图压制黑人选民的投票权。特朗普本周随意指责他的对手希望在绿树成荫的郊区建设“项目”，他将这种怀疑深入人心，并因此引发了可以预见的非裔美国人的反应。在问及是什么导致帕金斯的邻居们参与民调时，帕金斯回答道：“是因为害怕。害怕新冠肺炎。害怕失去工作和房屋。害怕在家看电视时遭到枪杀。”黑人选民对候选人的热情是投票率的一个指标，但是他们的热情可能被高估了。

Without underestimating the covid-related uncertainties¹⁴, there are also indicators¹⁵ that the virus could have less of a dampening effect than nervous Democrats fear. Projections¹⁶ from the latest survey data suggest black turnout is on course to be nine points higher than it was in 2016. All the voters canvassed¹⁷ insisted they would not allow the virus to stop them voting. Most said it had made them more determined¹⁸ to vote, and that they had already made plans to protect themselves, by voting early by mail or in person. Polls suggested black voters are 25% more likely to vote early than they were in 2016. That could make it harder to suppress their votes. “I’m voting,” said Ethel Peele, on her doorstep in Williamston. “Even if I have to get me a cab, I’m voting.”

就算没有低估新冠肺炎引发的不确定情况，也有迹象表明，病毒虽然会对黑人选民投票产生抑制影响，但并没有紧张的民主党人担心的那么严重。最新调查数据的预测显示，黑人投票率将比2016年提高9个百分点。所有被拉票的选民都坚称，他们不会让病毒阻止他们投票。大多数选民都表示，病毒让他们更加坚定地投票，他们已经制定了保护自己的计划，通过提前邮寄选票或亲自投票。民调显示，黑人选民提前投票的可能性比2016年高出25%。这可能会很难压制黑人选民们的投票现象。“我要投票，”埃塞尔·皮尔在威廉斯顿的家门口说。“即使我得叫辆出租车，我也要投票。”

African-American voters are facing even more formidable obstacles than usual this year. Yet they are formidable voters. Most of the evidence suggests Mr Biden can count on them.

今年，非洲裔美国选民面临着比以往更为艰巨的障碍。然而，他们是强大的选民。大多数证据表明，拜登可以指望他们。

1 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

2 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

3 allayed   

v.减轻，缓和( allay的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• His fever is allayed, but his appetite is still flatted. 他发烧减轻了，但食欲仍然不振。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• His fever was allayed by the medicine. 这药剂使他退烧了。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

4 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 exuberance   

n.丰富；繁荣

参考例句：

• Her burst of exuberance and her brightness overwhelmed me.她勃发的热情和阳光的性格征服了我。
• The sheer exuberance of the sculpture was exhilarating.那尊雕塑表现出的勃勃生机让人振奋。

6 starkly   

adj. 变硬了的,完全的 adv. 完全,实在,简直

参考例句：

• The city of Befast remains starkly divided between Catholics and Protestants. 贝尔法斯特市完全被处在天主教徒和新教徒的纷争之中。
• The black rocks stood out starkly against the sky. 那些黑色的岩石在天空衬托下十分显眼。

7 illustrates   

给…加插图( illustrate的第三人称单数 )； 说明； 表明； （用示例、图画等）说明

参考例句：

• This historical novel illustrates the breaking up of feudal society in microcosm. 这部历史小说是走向崩溃的封建社会的缩影。
• Alfred Adler, a famous doctor, had an experience which illustrates this. 阿尔弗莱德 - 阿德勒是一位著名的医生，他有过可以说明这点的经历。 来自中级百科部分

8 defensive   

adj.防御的；防卫的；防守的

参考例句：

• Their questions about the money put her on the defensive.他们问到钱的问题，使她警觉起来。
• The Government hastily organized defensive measures against the raids.政府急忙布置了防卫措施抵御空袭。

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 randomly   

adv.随便地，未加计划地

参考例句：

• Within the hot gas chamber, molecules are moving randomly in all directions. 在灼热的气体燃烧室内，分子在各个方向上作无规运动。 来自辞典例句
• Transformed cells are loosely attached, rounded and randomly oriented. 转化细胞则不大贴壁、圆缩并呈杂乱分布。 来自辞典例句

11 thereby   

adv.因此，从而

参考例句：

• I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市，因此对它不怎么熟悉。
• He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民，因而得到了投票权。

12 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

13 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

14 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

15 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

16 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

17 canvassed   

v.（在政治方面）游说( canvass的过去式和过去分词 )；调查（如选举前选民的）意见；为讨论而提出（意见等）；详细检查

参考例句：

• He canvassed the papers, hunting for notices of jobs. 他仔细查阅报纸，寻找招工广告。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The stirring event was well canvassed. 那桩惊人的事情已经是满城风雨。 来自英汉文学 - 汤姆历险

18 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。