2021年经济学人 日不落帝国的崛起蓄势待发(1)

Oversold over here

这里超卖了

The bull case for beaten-up Britain

对饱受打击的英国来说是牛市

One of the vices¹ of Britons is a penchant² for mourning the country's decline. To be cured of this, Britain would probably need a different history. It was the first industrial nation. From that starting-point, its influence could only ever go in one direction: downwards³. There is a large literature blaming long-term decline on sloth⁴, complacency and amateurism. Brexit is just another opportunity to lament⁵ lost relevance⁶.

英国人的恶习之一就是喜欢为国家的衰落哀悼。要想解决这个问题，英国可能需要一段不同的历史。英国是第一个工业化国家，从这个起点开始，它的影响只能朝着一个方向：向下。大量文献将长期的衰落归咎于懒惰、自满和业余，而英国脱欧只是另一个哀叹失去相关性的机会。

This sense of decline is felt keenly in capital markets. Sterling⁷ was once the global currency but it now accounts for less than 5% of foreign-exchange reserves. Britain's money markets used to stand out in Europe for their high interest rates; but no longer. And Britain's stockmarket is a shadow of its former self. Big IPOS are as rare as rocking-horse dung. This scarcity⁸ along with years of share underperformance has seen Britain's share of global market capitalisation shrink markedly.

这种衰落感在资本市场尤为明显。英镑曾经是全球货币，但现在它只占外汇储备的不到5%。英国的货币市场曾因其高利率而在欧洲脱颖而出，如今光环已不再，英国的股票市场已成昔日的影子。大型IPOS(首次公开募股)就像摇摆木马的马粪一样罕见。这种稀缺性，加上多年来的股票表现不佳，使得英国在全球市场资本中所占的份额大大缩水。

So accepted has the narrative⁹ of decline become, that it is probably time to bet the other way. The economy is poised¹⁰ for a sharp recovery. London's bourse is stuffed with the shares of companies—miners, banks and energy firms—that ought to do well in an environment of rising inflation. And though fixing the structural¹¹ deficiencies of Britain's capital markets is a big task, it is not impossible.

衰落已是事实，或许是时候赌一把了。经济的迅速复苏已经蓄势待发。伦敦证券交易所充斥着矿业公司、银行和能源公司的股票，这些公司在通胀上升的环境下应该会表现良好。尽管修复英国资本市场的结构性缺陷是一项艰巨的任务，但也不是不可能。

On cyclical grounds, there is a strong case for Britain. The immediate¹² outlook for the economy is rosier¹³ than almost anywhere. That in part reflects the ground lost to covid-19. The Bank of England reckons that, even after a surge in activity this quarter, GDP will still be around 5% below its pre-pandemic level. But it is also because the vaccine¹⁴ roll-out has been impressively quick. There is a sense, too, that uncertainty¹⁵ is diminishing. Brexit is done. The world has kept turning. And politics is more stable. Even if a fight over Scottish, and possibly Northern Irish, independence still looms¹⁶, the ruling Conservatives enjoy a handsome majority in parliament.

从经济周期的角度来看，英国的复苏有一个强有力的理由。经济的近期前景比几乎任何地方都要乐观，这在一定程度上反映了新冠夺走的阵地。英格兰银行估计，即便本季度经济活动激增，但GDP仍将比新冠前的水平低约5%。但这也是因为疫苗极快的推广速度。还有一种感觉是，不确定性正在减少。脱欧完成了，但世界还在运转，政治也更加稳定。即使围绕苏格兰(可能还有北爱尔兰)的独立之争仍隐约可见，但执政的保守党在议会中仍享有可观的多数席位。

The FTSE All-Share index is heavy with the kind of cyclical stocks that have been in favour recently. But, lamentably¹⁷, it is light on the digital champions of tomorrow. This is not for lack of innovation. Britain is rather good at fostering startups. There are various tax breaks to help fledgling companies raise seed capital. Universities have grasped that business spin-offs are to be encouraged, says Anne Glover of Amadeus Capital Partners, a venture-capital firm. Britain has four in the top ranks: Oxford¹⁸, Cambridge, Imperial College and University College, London.

富时全股指数中充斥着最近备受青睐的周期性股票。但令人遗憾的是，未来的数字领军企业还没有出现。并不是因为缺乏创新，英国非常擅长培育创业公司，有各种各样的税收减免来帮助羽翼未丰的公司筹集种子资本。风险投资公司Amadeus Capital Partners的安妮·格洛弗表示，大学已经意识到，商业剥离将受到鼓励。英国有4所顶尖大学：牛津大学、剑桥大学、帝国理工学院和伦敦大学学院。

1 vices   

缺陷( vice的名词复数 )； 恶习； 不道德行为； 台钳

参考例句：

• In spite of his vices, he was loved by all. 尽管他有缺点，还是受到大家的爱戴。
• He vituperated from the pulpit the vices of the court. 他在教堂的讲坛上责骂宫廷的罪恶。

2 penchant   

n.爱好，嗜好；（强烈的）倾向

参考例句：

• She has a penchant for Indian food.她爱吃印度食物。
• He had a penchant for playing jokes on people.他喜欢拿人开玩笑。

3 downwards   

adj./adv.向下的（地），下行的（地）

参考例句：

• He lay face downwards on his bed.他脸向下伏在床上。
• As the river flows downwards,it widens.这条河愈到下游愈宽。

4 sloth   

n.[动]树懒；懒惰，懒散

参考例句：

• Absence of competition makes for sloth.没有竞争会导致懒惰。
• The sloth spends most of its time hanging upside down from the branches.大部分时间里树懒都是倒挂在树枝上。

5 lament   

n.悲叹，悔恨，恸哭；v.哀悼，悔恨，悲叹

参考例句：

• Her face showed lament.她的脸上露出悲伤的样子。
• We lament the dead.我们哀悼死者。

6 relevance   

n.中肯，适当，关联，相关性

参考例句：

• Politicians' private lives have no relevance to their public roles.政治家的私生活与他们的公众角色不相关。
• Her ideas have lost all relevance to the modern world.她的想法与现代社会完全脱节。

7 sterling   

adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑)

参考例句：

• Could you tell me the current rate for sterling, please?能否请您告诉我现行英国货币的兑换率？
• Sterling has recently been strong,which will help to abate inflationary pressures.英国货币最近非常坚挺，这有助于减轻通胀压力。

8 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

9 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

10 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

11 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

12 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

13 rosier   

Rosieresite

参考例句：

• Rosier for an instant forgot the delicacy of his position. 罗齐尔一时间忘记了他的微妙处境。
• A meeting had immediately taken place between the Countess and Mr. Rosier. 伯爵夫人和罗齐尔先生已经搭讪上了。

14 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

15 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

16 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 lamentably   

adv.哀伤地，拙劣地

参考例句：

• Aviation was lamentably weak and primitive. 航空设施极其薄弱简陋。 来自辞典例句
• Poor Tom lamentably disgraced himself at Sir Charles Mirable's table, by premature inebriation. 可怜的汤姆在查尔斯·米拉贝尔爵士的宴会上，终于入席不久就酩酊大醉，弄得出丑露乖，丢尽了脸皮。 来自辞典例句

18 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。