2021年经济学人 美国房产投资的“鱼和熊掌”(2)

Over the long run, however, economic theory suggests that rents and prices should move in tandem¹ (ie, the ratio of house prices to rents should be stable). If rental² growth catches up with prices, that could have a big effect. Rents make up one-fifth of the basket used to calculate "core" personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) inflation, which excludes food and energy—the gauge³ most closely watched by the Fed. If annual rent inflation rose to 4% a year—not far off where it was shortly before the pandemic—overall core inflation would rise by 0.5 percentage points.

然而，从长期来看，经济理论表明租金和房价应该同步变动(也就是说，房价和租金之间的比率应该是稳定的)。如果租金增长赶上了房价，那么可能会产生很大的影响。租金在用于计算“核心”个人消费支出(PCE)通胀(不包括食品和能源——美联储最密切关注的指标)的篮子中占了五分之一。如果租金的年通胀率上升到每年4%——和新冠大流行前不久差不多——整体核心通胀率将上升0.5个百分点。

Could this happen as the economy recovers, landlords may hope to make up for lost time. "We expect a rental-market resurgence⁴ in 2021," said Zillow, a property firm, in a report in December, "with rents increasing...and demand for rental housing strengthening." A recovery in low-wage employment should boost rents: housing-cost inflation tends to rise when the unemployment rate falls. A survey by the New York Fed in April found that households expected rents to rise by 10% in the coming year, up from expectations of 5%, on average, in 2020.

这会发生吗？随着经济的复苏，房东们可能希望弥补失去的时间。房地产咨询公司Zillow在去年12月的一份报告中表示：“我们预计2021年租赁市场将会复苏，随着租金上涨……租房需求也会加强。”低薪就业的复苏应该会提振房租：当失业率下降时，住房成本通胀往往会上升。纽约联邦储备银行4月份的一项调查发现，美国家庭预计未来一年房租将上涨10%，高于2020年平均5%的预期。

Rental inflation is thus likely to rise in the coming months. But by how much is another question. There are reasons to think the price-to-rent ratio could settle at a permanently⁵ higher level. When interest rates are so low, for instance, people are willing to pay more for the right to a given stream of income. American price-to-rent ratios are higher today than in the 1980s, which coincides with declines in real interest rates.

因此未来几个月租金上涨可能会加剧，而上涨多少就是另外一个问题了。购租比可能会永久性保持在较高水平，这么说是有理由的。例如，当利率极低时，人们愿意花更多的钱来获得特定的收入流。如今美国的购租比比上世纪80年代要高，而当时的实际利率正好在下降。

A slower pace of housing construction may also keep price-to-rent ratios higher, suggests a new paper by Christian⁶ Hilber of the London School of Economics and Andreas Mense of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. In thriving areas where the supply of housing is constrained⁷, buyers may be willing to bid up prices in the expectation of strong rental growth in the future. In recent years America has become worse at building new houses, in part because of tougher land-use regulations.

住房建设步伐的放缓也可能会使房价与租金比率保持在较高水平，伦敦经济学院的克里斯蒂安·希尔伯特和埃尔兰根-纽伦堡大学的安德里亚斯·门斯在一篇新论文中指出。在住房供应有限的繁华地区，购房者可能愿意哄抬房价，因为他们预计未来的租金将强劲增长。近年来美国在建造新房方面的能力越来越差，部分原因是受限于更严格的土地使用规定。

American price-to-rent ratios could of course adjust in another way—through prices falling, rather than rents rising. Just as share prices are more volatile⁸ than dividends⁹, house prices are more up-and-down than rents. And Mr Detmeister's historical analysis suggests that two-thirds of any adjustment in price-to-rent ratios tends to fall on prices. In other words, America might be able to have either a strong housing market or quiescent¹⁰ inflation—but not both.

美国的购租比当然可以通过另一种方式进行调整——通过降低房价，而不是调高租金。就像股价比股息更不稳定一样，房价也比租金更起伏不定。德梅斯特的历史分析表明，在任何购租比的调整中，三分之二会趋向于降低房价。换句话说，美国可能要么拥有强劲的房地产市场，要么拥有平静的通胀——但二者不能兼得。

1 tandem   

n.同时发生；配合；adv.一个跟着一个地；纵排地；adj.（两匹马）前后纵列的

参考例句：

• Malcolm's contract will run in tandem with his existing one.马尔科姆的合同将与他手头的合同同时生效。
• He is working in tandem with officials of the Serious Fraud Office.他正配合欺诈重案办公室的官员工作。

2 rental   

n.租赁，出租，出租业

参考例句：

• The yearly rental of her house is 2400 yuan.她这房子年租金是2400元。
• We can organise car rental from Chicago O'Hare Airport.我们可以安排提供从芝加哥奥黑尔机场出发的租车服务。

3 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

4 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

5 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

6 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。

7 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

8 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

9 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

10 quiescent   

adj.静止的，不活动的，寂静的

参考例句：

• It is unlikely that such an extremist organization will remain quiescent for long.这种过激的组织是不太可能长期沉默的。
• Great distance in either time or space has wonderful power to lull and render quiescent the human mind.时间和空间上的远距离有一种奇妙的力量，可以使人的心灵平静。