2021年经济学人 不确定的经济复苏--释放多重信号(1)

Finance & economics

财经板块

The uncertain economic recovery: Mixed messages

不确定的经济复苏：信息混杂

Depending on where you look, the economic recovery is either on track or in trouble

世界上不同地区的经济要么正在恢复，要么还深陷泥沼

SO MUCH IS unfamiliar¹ about the pandemic that it has never been easy to make sense of what is going on.

关于疫情，仍然有很多未解之谜，想要弄清楚现在正在发生着什么，并非易事。

Yet in recent days uncertainty² has gone into overdrive.

但近来，不确定性色彩越来越浓烈。

Stockmarkets are volatile³; uncertainty about the path of inflation and labour markets is high.

股市反复无常；通货膨胀和劳动力市场也变化莫测。

The fate of the economic recovery seems to hinge on the answers to a number of big questions.

经济复苏的命运似乎取决于几个重要问题的答案。

Will the spread of the Delta⁴ variant⁵ of the coronavirus derail the global recovery?

新冠病毒变异毒株德尔塔的传播是否会拖垮全球经济的复苏？

Will underlying⁶ weaknesses be revealed as governments unwind stimulus⁷?

政府出台的刺激措施是否会暴露潜在的风险？

How enthusiastic are households and firms about spending?

百姓和企业对花钱的欲望有多强？

But the answers are unclear.

这些问题的答案都模糊不清。

And four gauges⁸ of the recovery—market prices, “high-frequency” activity indicators⁹, hard data and economists’ forecasts—are all giving mixed signals.

经济复苏的四大指标——市场价格、“高频”活动指标、硬数据以及经济学家的预测——所释放的信号都模棱两可。

Start with markets. America’s Treasuries¹⁰ are a haven¹¹ in uncertain times.

首先来看看市场。在不确定时期，美国的国债是一个避风港。

In March investors¹² sold them off as they took fright at rising inflation, pushing the ten-year Treasury¹³ yield up to 1.7%.

3月份，由于担心通货膨胀加剧，投资者纷纷抛售国债，将10年期国债收益率推高至1.7%。

But it has slowly slipped back since, as doubts about the continued strength of the economic recovery have taken hold.

但自那以后，随着人们对经济复苏的持续力度产生怀疑，国债收益率开始缓慢回落。

The growth scare seemed to intensify¹⁴ on July 19th, when the ten-year yield dipped to 1.19%.

7月19日，当10年期国债收益率跌至1.19%时，人们对增长的恐慌似乎加剧了。

The S&P 500, America’s main stock index, fell by 1.6%, with smaller companies hit hardest.

美国主要股票指数标准普尔500指数下跌了1.6%，其中小企业受到的打击最大。

Commodity prices also took a knock.

大宗商品价格也受到了冲击。

That of Brent crude oil fell by 7% to $69 a barrel.

布伦特原油价格下跌7%，每桶降至69美元。

The dollar strengthened against other rich-world currencies.

美元对其他发达国家货币走强。

All this seems consistent with concerns about the recovery and, in particular, a reassessment of what is known as the “reflation trade”, where investors buy assets most likely to benefit from an economic upswing.

所有这些似乎都与对经济复苏，尤其是重新评估所谓的“通货再膨胀交易”——投资者购买最有可能从经济增长中受益的资产——的担忧相一致。

Yet by the next day the growth scare had seemingly blown over.

然而，到第二天，增长恐慌似乎已经消散。

Stockmarkets reversed their fall.

股票市场扭转了跌势。

The oil price and bond yields recovered a little.

油价和债券收益率略有回升。

1 unfamiliar   

adj.陌生的，不熟悉的

参考例句：

• I am unfamiliar with the place and the people here.我在这儿人地生疏。
• The man seemed unfamiliar to me.这人很面生。

2 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

3 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

4 delta   

n.（流的）角洲

参考例句：

• He has been to the delta of the Nile.他曾去过尼罗河三角洲。
• The Nile divides at its mouth and forms a delta.尼罗河在河口分岔，形成了一个三角洲。

5 variant   

adj.不同的，变异的；n.变体，异体

参考例句：

• We give professional suggestions according to variant tanning stages for each customer.我们针对每位顾客不同的日晒阶段，提供强度适合的晒黑建议。
• In a variant of this approach,the tests are data- driven.这个方法的一个变种，是数据驱动的测试。

6 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

7 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

8 gauges   

n.规格( gauge的名词复数 )；厚度；宽度；标准尺寸v.（用仪器）测量( gauge的第三人称单数 )；估计；计量；划分

参考例句：

• A thermometer gauges the temperature. 温度计可测量温度。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The fuel gauges dropped swiftly. 燃料表指针迅速下降。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

10 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

11 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

14 intensify   

vt.加强；变强；加剧

参考例句：

• We must intensify our educational work among our own troops.我们必须加强自己部队的教育工作。
• They were ordered to intensify their patrols to protect our air space.他们奉命加强巡逻，保卫我国的领空。