美国国家公共电台 NPR--World central bankers are set to take new steps in their battle with inflation

World central bankers are set to take new steps in their battle with inflation

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez talks to David Wessel of the Brookings Institution about the Federal Reserve's plans to approve another rate hike this week. The European Central Bank is preparing to do the same.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

The Fed and the European Central Bank are considering raising interest rates again as soon as this week in their battle against inflation. Here to talk about what this means to American consumers, we turn to David Wessel. He's the director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. David, so let's start off with inflation here. How likely is it that a slow-and-steady approach wins this race?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, look, progress against inflation is very slow. We get some more data tomorrow, the Consumer Price Index for November, and it'll probably show that some of the supply chain pressures that have been driving up prices are beginning to abate². I mean, like, prices of apparel and used cars have been coming down. Gasoline prices have fallen as well. Now, the CPI report for October was encouraging, but then last week, we got discouraging news on wholesale³ prices. Overall, the problem is that prices are still climbing much faster than the Fed's 2% goal. Even if you exclude volatile⁴ food and energy prices, which is a way to gauge⁵ the underlying⁶ base of inflation, consumer prices rose more than 6% over the past year. In short, inflation just isn't coming down fast enough to get the Fed to relax.

MART?NEZ: All right. So then what is the Fed going to try and do about this?

WESSEL: Well, it's going to keep raising interest rates. Interest rates started the year at zero, which is extraordinary. The Fed has raised them unusually fast by 3.75 percentage points so far. And it's signaled that it's going to raise them another half percentage point when their meeting concludes on Wednesday. From Jay Powell on down, Fed officials have said we're going to keep raising rates until we sure we've beaten inflation back into the ground. How much more are they going to go up? Well, that really depends on the economy. But there's now a good chance that the Fed will push short-term interest rates above 5% next year and hold them there for a while until it's convinced that inflation has gone.

MART?NEZ: All right, above 5%. So how are these interest rate hikes, then, affecting the U.S. economy?

WESSEL: Look, the Fed is trying to slow the increase in demand - the amount we buy and the amount businesses spend - so that they match the available supply in the economy and relieve the upward pressure on prices. That's the strategy. So far, the pace of economic growth is slowing. The most immediate⁷ impact has been on the housing market. Rates on 30-year mortgages have risen from 3% at the beginning of the year to well above 6%. But the job market has been surprisingly strong. Even though the number of vacant jobs has fallen, unemployment remains⁸ low. And Fed Chair Jay Powell keeps saying that wages are rising faster than consistent with his 2% inflation goal. So they're going to keep raising interest rates. And the more they raise rates, the greater the chances of a recession next year, which some but not all forecasters are now anticipating.

MART?NEZ: And rising inflation is not just a United States problem it's a global one, too. So how do things here in the U.S., David, compare to the rest of the world?

WESSEL: That's a good point. So inflation is rising everywhere around the world or it's above target. And that tells you that there's some common forces at work here - the disruption of supply chains due to COVID-19, which, among other things, keeps shutting Chinese factories, and, of course, the surge in food and energy prices that have been triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I mean, inflation is high everywhere, even in Japan, which has been wrestling with deflation for years. But in Europe, inflation is much worse than the United States. Prices there are up more than 10% in the past year alone. And that's largely driven by natural gas prices. And so while the Fed is raising rates to slow an economy that it thinks is growing too fast, the European Central Bank has a much harder job. It's dealing⁹ with above-target inflation, raising interest rates to fight inflation, an economy that is growing very slowly and where the unemployment rate is double the rate in the United States.

MART?NEZ: That's David Wessel of the Brookings Institution. David, thanks.

WESSEL: You're welcome.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 abate   

vi.(风势，疼痛等)减弱，减轻，减退

参考例句：

• We must abate the noise pollution in our city.我们必须消除我们城里的噪音污染。
• The doctor gave him some medicine to abate the powerful pain.医生给了他一些药，以减弱那剧烈的疼痛。

3 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

4 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

5 gauge   

v.精确计量；估计；n.标准度量；计量器

参考例句：

• Can you gauge what her reaction is likely to be?你能揣测她的反应可能是什么吗？
• It's difficult to gauge one's character.要判断一个人的品格是很困难的。

6 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

7 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

8 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

9 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。