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美国国家公共电台 NPR--COVID spreading faster than ever in China. 800 million could be infected this winter

时间:2023-10-12 06:03来源:互联网 提供网友:nan   字体: [ ]
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COVID spreading faster than ever in China. 800 million could be infected this winter

Transcript1

China is now facing what is likely the world's largest COVID surge of the pandemic. China's public health officials say that possibly 800 million people could be infected with the coronavirus over the next few months. And several models predict that a half million people could die, possibly more.

"Recently, the deputy director of China CDC, Xiaofeng Liang, who' s a good friend of mine, was announcing through the public media that the first COVID wave may, in fact, infect around 60% of the population," says Xi Chen, who's a global health researcher at Yale University and an expert on China's health-care system.

That means about 10% of the planet's population may become infected over the course of the next 90 days.

Epidemiologist Ben Cowling agrees with this prediction. "This surge is going to come very fast, unfortunately. That's the worst thing," says Cowling, who's at the University of Hong Kong. "If it was slower, China would have time to prepare. But this is so fast. In Beijing, there's already a load of cases and [in] other major cities because it's spreading so fast.

The fastest spread of COVID yet

Cowling says the virus is spreading faster in China than it's spread ever before anywhere during the pandemic. It also looks to be especially contagious2 in the Chinese population.

To estimate a virus's transmissibility, scientists often use a parameter3 called the reproductive number, or R number. Basically, the R number tells you on average how many people one sick person infects. So for instance, at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, in early 2020, the R number was about 2 or 3, Cowling says. At that time, each person spread the virus to 2 to 3 people on average. During the omicron surge here in the U.S. last winter, the R number had jumped up to about 10 or 11, studies have found.

Scientists at the China National Health Commission estimate the R number is currently a whopping 16 in China durng this surge. "This is a really high level of transmissibility," Cowling says. "That's why China couldn't keep their zero-COVID policy going. The virus is just too transmissible even for them."

On top of that, the virus appears to be spreading faster in China than omicron spread in surges elsewhere, Cowling adds. Last winter, cases doubled in the U.S. every three days or so. "Now in China, the doubling time is like hours," Cowling says. "Even if you manage to slow it down a bit, it's still going to be doubling very, very quickly. And so the hospitals are going to come under pressure possibly by the end of this month."

So why is the virus spreading so explosively there?

The reason is that the population has very little immunity4 to the virus because the vast majority of people have never been infected. Until recently, China has focused on massive quarantines, testing and travel restrictions5 to keep the virus mostly out of the country. So China prevented most people from getting infected with variants6 that came before omicron. But that means now nearly all 1.4 billion people are susceptible7 to an infection.

China currently has a few highly transmissible variants of omicron spreading across the country, including one called BF.7. But these variants in China aren't particularly unique, and the U.S. currently has the same ones or similar ones, including BF.7. In the U.S., however, none of the variants appear to be spreading as quickly as they are in China.

And what about vaccines9? Will they stem the surge?

About 90% of the population over age 18 have been vaccinated10 with two shots of a Chinese vaccine8. This course offers good protection against severe disease, Cowling says, but it doesn't protect against an infection. Furthermore, adults over age 60 need three shots of the vaccine to protect against severe disease, Cowling's research has found. Only about 50% of older people have received that third shot, NPR has reported. And that leaves about 11 million people still at high risk for hospitalization and death.

"There is great uncertainty11 about how many severe cases there will be," says Chen at Yale University. "Right now in Beijing we don't see many severe cases." However, the outbreak could look quite different outside major coastal12 cities like Beijing because rural areas have much poorer health-care systems.

"In China, there's such a large geographic13 disparity in terms of health-care infrastructure14, ICU beds and medical professionals. Most of the hospitals with advanced treatment technologies are located in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and all the big metropolitan15 areas."

Despite a recent effort by the government to increase ICU capacity, Chen still thinks there are way too few ICU beds in many parts of the country. "I don't quite believe the new estimate of 10 ICU beds per 100,000 people because this new number includes something they call a 'convertible16.' So these are beds that are used for other treatments, such as chemotherapy and dialysis, that they are converting to an ICU bed."

Predictions about the death toll17

Several models have predicted a large death toll for this initial surge, with at least a half million deaths, perhaps up to a million.

But that number, Chen says, depends a lot on two factors.

First off, people's behavior. If people at high risk continue to quarantine voluntarily, the death toll could be lower.

Second, how well the health-care system holds up under this pressure. "This is going to be a major test – and it's unprecedented," he says. "In my memory, I have never seen such a challenge to the Chinese health-care system."

No one knows for sure what's going to happen in China. But you can make some predictions based on what's happened in neighboring places faced with a similar surge. Take Hong Kong, for instance. Like China, the city had kept COVID at bay for years. But then last winter, they suffered a massive omicron surge. Over the course of only two to three months, about 3 to 4 million — or 50% of the population — caught COVID, Cowling says.

But Cowling thinks that ultimately China will still fare much better against COVID than America has.

"China has done really well to hold back the virus for three years, and ultimately, I think, the mortality rate will still be much lower than elsewhere in the world," he says, because the country has vaccinated such a high percentage of its population overall. In other words, the death toll will likely be high, given the sheer number of people infected, but it could have been much worse without the vaccinations18, he explains.

"The mortality rate in China isn't going to surpass America's mortality rate [0.3%] at this point," he says. "But China has a really tough winter ahead."


点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 transcript JgpzUp     
n.抄本,誊本,副本,肄业证书
参考例句:
  • A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
  • They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。
2 contagious TZ0yl     
adj.传染性的,有感染力的
参考例句:
  • It's a highly contagious infection.这种病极易传染。
  • He's got a contagious laugh.他的笑富有感染力。
3 parameter eK4xZ     
n.参数,参量
参考例句:
  • It is the parameter of distribution.这就是分布参数。
  • One parameter which always comes into play is the national economy.国民经济是一个经常起作用的参量。
4 immunity dygyQ     
n.优惠;免除;豁免,豁免权
参考例句:
  • The law gives public schools immunity from taxation.法律免除公立学校的纳税义务。
  • He claims diplomatic immunity to avoid being arrested.他要求外交豁免以便避免被捕。
5 restrictions 81e12dac658cfd4c590486dd6f7523cf     
约束( restriction的名词复数 ); 管制; 制约因素; 带限制性的条件(或规则)
参考例句:
  • I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
  • a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制
6 variants 796e0e5ff8114b13b2e23cde9d3c6904     
n.变体( variant的名词复数 );变种;变型;(词等的)变体
参考例句:
  • Those variants will be preserved in the'struggle for existence". 这些变异将在“生存竞争”中被保留下来。 来自辞典例句
  • Like organisms, viruses have variants, generally called strains. 与其他生物一样,病毒也有变种,一般称之为株系。 来自辞典例句
7 susceptible 4rrw7     
adj.过敏的,敏感的;易动感情的,易受感动的
参考例句:
  • Children are more susceptible than adults.孩子比成人易受感动。
  • We are all susceptible to advertising.我们都易受广告的影响。
8 vaccine Ki1wv     
n.牛痘苗,疫苗;adj.牛痘的,疫苗的
参考例句:
  • The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
  • She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。
9 vaccines c9bb57973a82c1e95c7cd0f4988a1ded     
疫苗,痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
  • The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。
10 vaccinated 8f16717462e6e6db3389d0f736409983     
[医]已接种的,种痘的,接种过疫菌的
参考例句:
  • I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
  • Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗?
11 uncertainty NlFwK     
n.易变,靠不住,不确知,不确定的事物
参考例句:
  • Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
  • After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后,压力开始产生影响了。
12 coastal WWiyh     
adj.海岸的,沿海的,沿岸的
参考例句:
  • The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
  • This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。
13 geographic tgsxb     
adj.地理学的,地理的
参考例句:
  • The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
14 infrastructure UbBz5     
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施
参考例句:
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设,发展各类群众文化。
15 metropolitan mCyxZ     
adj.大城市的,大都会的
参考例句:
  • Metropolitan buildings become taller than ever.大城市的建筑变得比以前更高。
  • Metropolitan residents are used to fast rhythm.大都市的居民习惯于快节奏。
16 convertible aZUyK     
adj.可改变的,可交换,同意义的;n.有活动摺篷的汽车
参考例句:
  • The convertible sofa means that the apartment can sleep four.有了这张折叠沙发,公寓里可以睡下4个人。
  • That new white convertible is totally awesome.那辆新的白色折篷汽车简直棒极了。
17 toll LJpzo     
n.过路(桥)费;损失,伤亡人数;v.敲(钟)
参考例句:
  • The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
  • The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。
18 vaccinations ed61d339e2970fa63aee4b5ce757cc44     
n.种痘,接种( vaccination的名词复数 );牛痘疤
参考例句:
  • Vaccinations ensure one against diseases. 接种疫苗可以预防疾病。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • I read some publicity about vaccinations while waiting my turn at the doctor's. 在医生那儿候诊时,我读了一些关于接种疫苗的宣传。 来自《简明英汉词典》
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