美国国家公共电台 NPR--Ukraine warns Russia is preparing for a major ground offensive this winter

Ukraine warns Russia is preparing for a major ground offensive this winter

Transcript¹

NPR's A Martinez talks to retired² Marine³ Col. Mark Cancian, senior adviser⁴ with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about a possible major Russian ground offensive in Ukraine.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

Ukrainian officials are warning that Russia is preparing for a major ground offensive this winter. Despite setbacks, the Kremlin is showing no signs of backing down. President Putin is in Belarus today, where Russia has recently deployed⁵ thousands of troops. Joining us now is retired Marine Corps⁶ Colonel Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Colonel, are there any signs that Russia is indeed preparing for a major ground offensive right now?

MARK CANCIAN: Well, there's a widespread expectation that when the ground freezes that both sides will launch winter offensives. Remember, the war began in February. And looking back at World War II, the Soviets⁷ routinely launched a winter offensive. The Russians have been rebuilding their strength. Of course, they carried out this partial mobilization beginning back in September. It was very chaotic⁸, but it is producing troops at the front. So it's rebuilding its forces. It's moving up new equipment.

It would have the capability⁹ to launch some offensive. There's been a lot of speculation¹⁰ that that might come from Belarus and strike at Kyiv. The Ukrainians have raised that concern. I think that's unlikely. There are a lot of Russian troops in Belarus. They are probably training, using the training facilities. They failed back in February, March, when they tried that route of attack, back when they had surprise and the Ukrainians were unready. I think it's unlikely that they could succeed this time.

MART?NEZ: Back in September, Colonel, Moscow announced that they would mobilize 300,000 additional reservists. Would they be ready in time if they wanted to do something this winter?

CANCIAN: Well, they would. Those reservists are showing up at the front.

MART?NEZ: OK.

CANCIAN: They've been through some training process. You know that, again, has been chaotic, but it clearly exists. And that's enough time to get them up to speed and, you know, ready for operations.

MART?NEZ: Earlier in the war, Russians tried and were not able to take over Kyiv. Do you think they would try that again?

CANCIAN: I don't think so. As I noted¹¹, I think that, having failed at that once, when they had optimum conditions, they would not try it again. I think it's much more likely that they would attack, if they were going to, in the Donbas area. They've pledged to liberate¹², in their words, the two provinces there. They're conducting low-level attacks continuously there. I think it's more likely that you would see the offensive there.

MART?NEZ: I know the Biden administration is poised¹³ to send military aid - new military aid - including Patriot¹⁴ missiles, to Ukraine. Could that be a game changer?

CANCIAN: The short answer is no. The Patriot is a very capable system and it will help the Ukrainian air defenses. But we're only sending one battery. That's one unit. It could cover one city, likely Kyiv. And it's only effective against certain kinds of targets. You have to keep in mind that a single Patriot missile costs $4 million. So it's worth firing them at aircraft, for example, and maybe at some cruise missiles, if they were going to strike sensitive areas, but makes no sense to fire them at $50,000 Iranian drones. And a large part of the air attacks have been those kinds of drones. So it will be helpful, but it's certainly not a game changer.

MART?NEZ: Retired Colonel Mark Cancian with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Colonel, thanks.

CANCIAN: Thanks for having me on the show.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

3 marine   

adj.海的；海生的；航海的；海事的；n.水兵

参考例句：

• Marine creatures are those which live in the sea. 海洋生物是生存在海里的生物。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

4 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

5 deployed   

（尤指军事行动）使展开( deploy的过去式和过去分词 )； 施展； 部署； 有效地利用

参考例句：

• Tanks have been deployed all along the front line. 沿整个前线已部署了坦克。
• The artillery was deployed to bear on the fort. 火炮是对着那个碉堡部署的。

6 corps   

n.(通信等兵种的)部队；(同类作的)一组

参考例句：

• The medical corps were cited for bravery in combat.医疗队由于在战场上的英勇表现而受嘉奖。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

7 soviets   

苏维埃（Soviet的复数形式）

参考例句：

• A public challenge could provoke the Soviets to dig in. 公开挑战会促使苏联人一意孤行。
• The Soviets proposed the withdrawal of American ballistic-missile submarines from forward bases. 苏联人建议把美国的弹道导弹潜艇从前沿基地撤走。

8 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

9 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

10 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

11 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

12 liberate   

v.解放，使获得自由，释出，放出；vt.解放，使获自由

参考例句：

• They did their best to liberate slaves.他们尽最大能力去解放奴隶。
• This will liberate him from economic worry.这将消除他经济上的忧虑。

13 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

14 patriot   

n.爱国者，爱国主义者

参考例句：

• He avowed himself a patriot.他自称自己是爱国者。
• He is a patriot who has won the admiration of the French already.他是一个已经赢得法国人敬仰的爱国者。