美国国家公共电台 NPR--What Ayman al-Zawahiri's death means for al-Qaida

What Ayman al-Zawahiri's death means for al-Qaida

Transcript¹

NPR's Asma Khalid speaks with intelligence expert Douglas London, a retired² senior CIA officer and author, about the significance of the killing³ of al-Qaida's leader in Afghanistan.

ASMA KHALID, HOST:

The State Department is cautioning that the killing of al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri could lead to an uptick in anti-American violence. The warning says al-Qaida supporters could target U.S. facilities or citizens in response to the drone strike in Afghanistan that killed Zawahiri over the weekend. Yesterday on the show, my co-host, A Martinez, asked National Security Council official John Kirby about this question of safety.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST)

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

Admiral Kirby, should Americans feel safer today than they did a week ago?

JOHN KIRBY: Yes, 100%.

KHALID: Zawahiri was the de facto leader of al-Qaida for years, especially after 2011 when the U.S. took out Osama bin⁴ Laden⁵. Zawahiri was also considered a key architect of the 9/11 attacks and other attacks, too, like the bombing of the USS Cole back in 2000. But what exactly does eliminating him mean for U.S. safety and the future of U.S. counterterrorism? We're joined now to answer some of those questions by retired senior CIA officer Douglas London. Good to have you back on the show, sir.

DOUGLAS LONDON: Thank you. Good to be back.

KHALID: So, Douglas, we have been hearing less in recent years about al-Qaida. Is the threat substantially less now because Zawahiri was killed?

LONDON: Removing Zawahiri at least provides some immediate⁶ and short-term disruption. I think the United Nations' reporting, which reflects that of member states, including the United States and their intelligence, suggests that al-Qaida is actually a longer term threat, perhaps more so than ISIS.

KHALID: Oh, wow. OK.

LONDON: Al-Qaida has more of a long-term aspiration⁷ to strike the United States in the homeland and externally, if possible. It's at the core of its strategy to get the head of the snake. So I think the sanctuary⁸ that al-Qaida is receiving, even with the disruption of seeing Zawahiri removed, still makes them a threat to reckon with that we continue to need to suppress.

KHALID: I want to ask you about this concept of a sanctuary because Zawahiri was killed in Kabul, not out in some remote, ungovernable areas of Afghanistan. So how do you interpret that? I mean, what does it tell us about the group's relationship, al-Qaida's relationship with the Taliban?

LONDON: I think it tells us a bit more perhaps about what the Taliban is thinking than what al-Qaida's thinking. Zawahiri preached isolation⁹, hiding. He used to tell other leaders to build bunkers underground. It's my speculation¹⁰ that it was Taliban pressure that forced him to come to Kabul to a suburban¹¹ area where they could keep an eye on him to have some leverage¹² over the group. Al-Qaida and Taliban cooperation remains¹³ very good.

But I think the Taliban would rather find some way to keep them from operating such that should they conduct an attack, it won't be immediately traced to their support to al-Qaida in country. So by keeping him in Kabul, where the Haqqani network maintain control over that city, in particular - Sirajuddin Haqqani being the acting¹⁴ interior minister; his uncle, Khalil, being responsible for security - I think it's a way for them to keep eyes on him and also some leverage over the group's activities.

KHALID: I want to ask you more specifically about the strike over the weekend. You know, had the U.S. had boots on the ground in Afghanistan, I imagine that this would have been a very different operation.

LONDON: Well, Director Burns himself has said that this over the horizon works, but it does have limitations, namely the timeliness of intelligence and your ability to quality control. A lot of your collection from human sources is being done indirectly¹⁵ through cutouts or by impersonal¹⁶ communications. Agents have digital ways or other means to communicate with their case officers. So you stretch out a bit the chain of acquisition. In a sense, it's a little bit like playing telephone. You may be talking to an agent through somebody who heard something from somebody else, and that sort of clouds sometimes the intelligence reporting. It doesn't eliminate it. It just makes it a little more complicated.

KHALID: You know, to me, Douglas, this whole operation has been a real test of President Biden's counterterrorism strategy. The argument I recall hearing from the White House after the withdrawal¹⁷ from Afghanistan is that the threat had changed. They no longer needed boots on the ground. They had these over-the-horizon drone capabilities¹⁸ that you mentioned to take on threats no matter where they are. Does the strike over the weekend prove that the Biden administration's thinking is right? Or were they just lucky in this instance?

LONDON: Well, the drone technology is very sophisticated and evolves regularly. So drones and those type of technologies are going to only get better. The problem is they need a start point. They need to know where to look and what they're looking for. And that comes from other strands¹⁹ of intelligence. It comes from human intelligence, sources, agents on the ground, signals collection, cyber and the such. So when you remove your boots on the ground, if you would, you are complicating²⁰ things. You're making it a little bit harder. So I still think over the horizon is a limitation. It doesn't replace having a presence on the ground, but it's still something that we have the ability to carry out.

KHALID: All right. Thank you, Mr. London. We really appreciate you coming back on the show.

LONDON: My pleasure, as always.

KHALID: Douglas London is a retired CIA officer and author of the book "The Recruiter: Spying And The Lost Art Of American Intelligence."

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 retired   

adj.隐退的，退休的，退役的

参考例句：

• The old man retired to the country for rest.这位老人下乡休息去了。
• Many retired people take up gardening as a hobby.许多退休的人都以从事园艺为嗜好。

3 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

4 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

5 laden   

adj.装满了的；充满了的；负了重担的；苦恼的

参考例句：

• He is laden with heavy responsibility.他肩负重任。
• Dragging the fully laden boat across the sand dunes was no mean feat.将满载货物的船拖过沙丘是一件了不起的事。

6 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

7 aspiration   

n.志向，志趣抱负；渴望；(语)送气音；吸出

参考例句：

• Man's aspiration should be as lofty as the stars.人的志气应当象天上的星星那么高。
• Young Addison had a strong aspiration to be an inventor.年幼的爱迪生渴望成为一名发明家。

8 sanctuary   

n.圣所，圣堂，寺庙；禁猎区，保护区

参考例句：

• There was a sanctuary of political refugees behind the hospital.医院后面有一个政治难民的避难所。
• Most countries refuse to give sanctuary to people who hijack aeroplanes.大多数国家拒绝对劫机者提供庇护。

9 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

10 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

11 suburban   

adj.城郊的，在郊区的

参考例句：

• Suburban shopping centers were springing up all over America. 效区的商业中心在美国如雨后春笋般地兴起。
• There's a lot of good things about suburban living.郊区生活是有许多优点。

12 leverage   

n.力量，影响；杠杆作用，杠杆的力量

参考例句：

• We'll have to use leverage to move this huge rock.我们不得不借助杠杆之力来移动这块巨石。
• He failed in the project because he could gain no leverage. 因为他没有影响力，他的计划失败了。

13 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

14 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

15 indirectly   

adv.间接地，不直接了当地

参考例句：

• I heard the news indirectly.这消息我是间接听来的。
• They were approached indirectly through an intermediary.通过一位中间人，他们进行了间接接触。

16 impersonal   

adj.无个人感情的，与个人无关的，非人称的

参考例句：

• Even his children found him strangely distant and impersonal.他的孩子们也认为他跟其他人很疏远，没有人情味。
• His manner seemed rather stiff and impersonal.他的态度似乎很生硬冷淡。

17 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

18 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

19 strands   

n.（线、绳、金属线、毛发等的）股( strand的名词复数 )；缕；海洋、湖或河的)岸；（观点、计划、故事等的）部份v.使滞留，使搁浅( strand的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Twist a length of rope from strands of hemp. 用几股麻搓成了一段绳子。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• She laced strands into a braid. 她把几股线编织成一根穗带。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 complicating   

使复杂化( complicate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。
• In America these actions become executive puberty rites, complicating relationships that are already complicated enough. 在美国，这些行动成了行政青春期的惯例，使本来已经够复杂的关系变得更复杂了。