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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
This baby could push India past China to become the world's most populous1 country
MUMBAI, India — In a sparse3, one-room apartment on the far periphery4 of a booming megacity, the piercing cry of a newborn baby marks a population milestone5 for India.
He's a boy named Vehant, born on Nov. 9 and weighing nearly 8 pounds. His first days were difficult; he developed a blood infection and was hospitalized for 10 days. Now he's back home.
In many ways, Vehant embodies6 the new India. He's the first in his family to be born in a hospital. His parents married for love — a rarity in a country where matchmaking is a tradition. And their young family — now settled on the fast-growing edge of India's biggest city, Mumbai — is the product of a massive wave of migration7 out of India's countryside.
"I cannot imagine him being born back in our village, without the kind of facilities we've had access to here," says his 24-year-old mother, Naina Agrahari, who was born on the floor of her grandmother's rural home.
Vehant has another distinction: He is one of the many babies who, in the months ahead, will bring India a new global title.
The United Nations says that sometime in 2023, India will officially overtake China as the most populous country in the world. It may actually have happened already: India hasn't had a census8 since 2011.
India, not China, will soon have the largest population in the world
According to the U.N.'s World Population Dashboard, China still had slightly more people than India at the end of 2022: 1.4485 billion, compared to India's 1.4066 billion. But China's population has stabilized9 and is set to shrink, while India's is still growing — pretty fast.
More babies are born each year in India than any other country in the world. (The U.N. estimates more than 24 million annually10, but the true number is likely higher because many births never get registered.) And more of them are born in burgeoning11 megacities like Mumbai — with a population of more than 22 million — than ever before.
Compared to previous generations, these newborn Indians are more likely to be born in a hospital than at home; more likely to survive to adulthood12; more likely to become literate13, educated and multilingual; and more likely to migrate within their lifetime, to different parts of their own country or the rest of the world.
And if efforts to eradicate14 female feticide are successful, the next generation of Indians will have more females than in recent decades.
Women and girls are the big beneficiaries of India's population boom, and they're changing the country in profound and unexpected ways, demographers16 say. The story of Vehant's mother — and the choices she's made — reflect the way that this new generation will grow up with far different prospects17 than past generations and will change the country itself.
Meet Vehant's mom
In October 2022, a racy Bollywood love song bounces off the concrete walls of Naina Agrahari's otherwise empty, dank little apartment in northern Mumbai. Two frames adorn18 the wall: a photo collage19 of Agrahari and her husband, arm in arm, and a cartoon poster of two cherubs20 in a garden.
Agrahari sings Hindi lyrics21 as she waddles22 around in a ruffled23 pink maternity24 dress while folding laundry. She jokes that she should probably learn "Baa Baa Black Sheep" instead, because she's nine months pregnant.
"It never occurred to me to learn nursery rhymes!" she says, laughing. "I have been so involved in my job as a financial consultant25, but now that I'm about to give birth, I should probably learn some baby stuff."
In 2010, Agrahari moved to Mumbai with her parents and siblings26 from their native village in India's most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. The family settled in Nala Sopara, a small suburb on Mumbai's northern outskirts27 that has seen its population double to nearly 200,000 in the past 20 years, with an influx28 of migrants like them.
Agrahari is the first woman in her immediate29 family to have a paid career outside the home. And she's the first in her family to give birth in a hospital. She and her siblings were all born at home in their village with the help of a local midwife.
This kind of transition from rural/village life to urban life by many Indians is having a profound impact. India's infant mortality has more than halved30 in recent decades, from 65 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 27 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2020, according to World Bank data. That dramatic drop is credited at least in part to better overall health outcomes from better access to medical care in cities, rather than the countryside.
And these children will find a brighter future than the newborns of past decades. Agrahari's child is more likely than his ancestors to be healthy, in an urban setting rather than a rural one. He's more likely to learn languages in polyglot31 Mumbai, where migrants arrive speaking hundreds of regional languages from all over India. And with relative prosperity, Vehant is also more likely to travel, for work or for tourism.
"I want my child to study medicine and to go abroad for an even better education," Agrahari says, laughing off the idea that she's already grooming32 a little overachiever.
Unlike the Agrahari family, most Indians still live in rural areas. About a third of the country lives in areas classified as urban. But according to government data, that'll surpass 40% by 2030 — and continue to rise.
The wave of migration that Agrahari is part of has only just begun.
Each year, tens of millions of Indians move out of rural agricultural areas and into huge, crowded urban centers like Mumbai. It's a change that'll characterize her baby's generation. And it may also saddle them with some environmental problems associated with densely33 populated cities: smog, inadequate34 infrastructure35 and economic inequality.
There's one especially important way urbanization is changing India's demographics: Even as the country's population rises, women in cities are having fewer babies than rural women.
"Given the cost of living in urban areas, but also higher income and access to services, we see the population stabilizing36 in Indian cities," says Andrea Wojnar, India representative for the U.N. Population Fund (UNFPA). "It tends to be in rural areas, where families are still living agrarian37 lives, that they need to have — or want to have — larger families."
In the 1960s, India's fertility rate was nearly six children per woman. But by 2017, it had fallen to 2.4 children per woman in rural areas — and 1.7 in urban ones.
How female infanticide and feticide left India with a sex gap
When NPR first visited the home of Agrahari and her husband, 27-year-old Sumit Chauhan, in October, they did not know their baby's sex. Ultrasounds to determine that are illegal in India.
"We're not allowed to learn the sex of an unborn baby, because if the child is female, some mothers feel family pressure to abort38. In villages, this happens a lot," Agrahari explains. "Some people don't want a girl child."
India, like many developing countries — including China under its "one-child" policy — has long had a preference for sons. In extreme cases, that has resulted in female infanticide, when parents actually kill their own newborn girls. In the 1980s, when prenatal sex determination tests became more affordable39 and widespread, India saw a steady increase in abortions41 of female fetuses42. (Abortion40 was legalized in India in 1971.)
All of that has left India — like China — with a wide sex ratio. Government data shows that in 1991, there were 945 females ages 0-6 in India for every 1,000 males. In 2011, that figure declined to 918 females per 1,000 males.
But a new report by the Pew Research Center suggests that trend may be reversing. In the past few years, more girls have been born in India. Experts are trying to figure out why.
It could be due to the success of an Indian government program called Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao -- "Save the daughter, educate the daughter." Or it could be a mere43 blip in the statistics, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, says A.L. Sharada, a demographer15 and director of Population First, a social welfare group based in Mumbai.
"Some of the latest data shows sex ratios are improving, but it could be because people might not have been able to access abortion services during the pandemic," Sharada notes. "So we have to see if this trend will continue."
How female education is changing India's birthrate
Agrahari says the message of the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign has rubbed off on her family. Her 46-year-old mother, Gudiya Vaishya, who has a sixth-grade education, moved her family to Mumbai, in part, so that her daughters — Agrahari and her younger sister Khushi Vaishya — could have careers.
"It's all about the mindset. Because of my mother's dedication44, I took English tuition [after-school classes] in Mumbai, at a time when our other relatives [in rural Uttar Pradesh] were saying, 'What difference does it make?'" recalls Khushi Vaishya. "My mother came from a background where this wasn't common. But because of her, I got into college."
Vaishya is now studying for a bachelor's degree in economics. Agrahari graduated from 12th grade and has since started her own financial consulting company, specializing in various types of loan products. She plans to return to paid work, outside the home, after a six-month maternity leave.
She also had a love marriage — a rarity in India, where most marriages are arranged by families.
Agrahari and her husband, a fellow migrant from Uttar Pradesh, say they want one or possibly two children — not five like Agrahari's mother, or six like her grandmother, who never went to school.
"On average, a girl who studies up to 12th grade has fewer children than a girl who's not literate, and a woman who works has fewer children than a woman who does not work," says Sharada, the demographer. "A family which earns more has fewer children than a family that doesn't earn much."
Agrahari's father is also from a big family. He's one of six children, she notes.
"But that is only because his father died before his wife — my grandmother — could become pregnant again!" she laughs.
How far India has come and what challenges lie ahead
India celebrated45 its 75th birthday last year. Since 1947, India has transformed from a subcontinent impoverished46 by British colonial rule, to an Asian regional power with big urban centers of technology, innovation, constant construction and growth.
When we talk about booming Asian megacities, we used to think primarily of China. But India has now joined those ranks.
"China will achieve its peak population size [this year], whereas India will continue to experience momentum47 for several decades to come, before the population actually stabilizes," the UNFPA's Wojnar says. "This represents a great opportunity for India. With the largest number of young people anywhere in the world, there's a huge opportunity — a huge potential — to tap into, to enjoy greater economic growth and development."
But the challenge, Wojnar and others say, is for India to create enough opportunities in education and employment for all of these young people streaming into India's big cities or being born in them.
"This is the most important thing for a country: to keep pace with growth of the population by providing health care, education, and the conditions for jobs," Wojnar says. "The challenges are anywhere where women and girls don't have decision-making power, where they have lower levels of literacy and where they're not able to exercise their reproductive rights and choices."
Those challenges are especially acute in Dharavi, one of the biggest slums in Mumbai — and in all of Asia. It's a step down from the northern suburb where Agrahari lives. In Dharavi, there are shared toilets for dozens of families.
Offering prenatal care to women who don't realize they need it
The narrow lanes of Dharavi are a cacophony48 of sights, smells and regional languages from all over South Asia. Officially, the less than 1-square-mile neighborhood is home to at least a million people, but the real figure is probably way more. This is one of the first stops for migrants seeking affordable housing as they arrive in Mumbai from rural areas.
Many of the women who arrive here are pregnant and anemic.
"They are coming here for their livelihood49, but many of them have no knowledge health, hygiene50 — or how to care for a malnourished child," says Vanita Vittal Sondhe, a social worker and program coordinator51 at SNEHA, a nonprofit organization that works with women, children and public health in Mumbai.
Sondhe's job is to go door to door in Dharavi, offering prenatal care to women who often don't realize they need it. She gives them information on maternal52 and childhood nutrition and helps them book medical appointments at Sion Hospital, a big public facility nearby.
For some of them, it's not only their first childbirth in a clinical setting. It's their first time setting foot in any hospital altogether.
"I didn't know that I should eat eggs, drink milk and consume more vegetables while I'm nursing. They told me all of that when I visited the hospital," says Shabana Khatoon, 23, who is one of Sondhe's clients.
Khatoon recently moved to Dharavi from Jharkhand, a relatively53 poor state in eastern India. She and her husband, who works as a tailor, have rented a single-room apartment that measures about 40 square feet for the equivalent of about $42 a month. They share the flat with their toddler and Khatoon's brother-in-law, who works as a day laborer54. There's barely enough room for them all to stretch out on the floor, with their feet out the door.
Their toddler — a little girl — was born in Jharkhand and diagnosed as malnourished when she arrived in Mumbai. Now Khatoon is pregnant again.
"She is not getting a proper diet. But they are still doing better in Mumbai than in their native place," Sondhe explains. "That's why they come."
NPR asks Khatoon how many children she wants to have.
"As many as my husband wants," she replies quietly, fiddling55 with the bangle bracelets56 on her wrist.
If the child she's pregnant with now turns out to be a boy, she'd like to stop after that. But if it's a girl, she'll try to get pregnant again, she says.
A bouncing baby boy, with a blood infection
Several weeks later after our first meeting, NPR returns to visit Agrahari, the financial consultant. She's just given birth, on Nov. 9, to a baby boy. They've named him Vehant, a Hindi word meaning intelligent.
Agrahari's mother and sister are helping57 her take care of him. As they coo over the baby, the women marvel58 at how it's only recently, in their family, that women could choose how many babies to have.
"I don't think my mother had any choice over how many kids to have," says Vaishya. "Her mother-in-law — my father's mother — wanted to have the house filled with children."
"In a way, it was our grandmother's choice, how many siblings we have," Agrahari chimes in.
Her own birthing experience was painful, she says. "One is enough! I don't want to even talk about having a second baby."
Newborn Vehant developed a blood infection and was hospitalized for 10 days. He had to get injections, in the bottoms of his tiny feet, three or four times a day, Agrahari recalls.
She shudders59 to think what would have happened had he been born at home, like all of his ancestors before him.
"My child is so strong, so calm. He didn't flinch60 in the face of all these complicated procedures," she says with pride. "If we'd been in our village, I wouldn't have even known what was wrong with him."
Instead, little Vehant is now healthy and will grow up in Mumbai in a new generation of Indians — in the most populous country in the world.
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populous
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| adj.人口稠密的，人口众多的 | |
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transcript
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| n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书 | |
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sparse
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| adj.稀疏的，稀稀落落的，薄的 | |
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periphery
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| n.(圆体的)外面；周围 | |
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milestone
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| n.里程碑；划时代的事件 | |
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embodies
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| v.表现( embody的第三人称单数 )；象征；包括；包含 | |
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migration
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| n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙 | |
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census
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| n.(官方的)人口调查，人口普查 | |
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stabilized
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| v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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annually
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| adv.一年一次，每年 | |
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burgeoning
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| adj.迅速成长的，迅速发展的v.发芽，抽枝( burgeon的现在分词 )；迅速发展；发（芽），抽（枝） | |
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adulthood
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| n.成年，成人期 | |
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literate
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| n.学者；adj.精通文学的，受过教育的 | |
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eradicate
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| v.根除，消灭，杜绝 | |
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demographer
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| n.人口统计学家 | |
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demographers
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| n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 ) | |
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prospects
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| n.希望，前途(恒为复数) | |
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adorn
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| vt.使美化，装饰 | |
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collage
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| n.拼贴画；v.拼贴；把……创作成拼贴画 | |
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cherubs
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| 小天使，胖娃娃( cherub的名词复数 ) | |
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lyrics
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| n.歌词 | |
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waddles
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| v.（像鸭子一样）摇摇摆摆地走( waddle的第三人称单数 ) | |
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ruffled
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| adj. 有褶饰边的, 起皱的 动词ruffle的过去式和过去分词 | |
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maternity
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| n.母性，母道，妇产科病房；adj.孕妇的，母性的 | |
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consultant
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| n.顾问；会诊医师，专科医生 | |
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siblings
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| n.兄弟，姐妹( sibling的名词复数 ) | |
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outskirts
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| n.郊外，郊区 | |
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influx
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| n.流入，注入 | |
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immediate
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| adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的 | |
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halved
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| v.把…分成两半( halve的过去式和过去分词 )；把…减半；对分；平摊 | |
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polyglot
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| adj.通晓数种语言的；n.通晓多种语言的人 | |
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grooming
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| n. 修饰, 美容，（动物）梳理毛发 | |
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densely
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| ad.密集地；浓厚地 | |
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inadequate
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| adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的 | |
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infrastructure
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| n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施 | |
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stabilizing
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| n.稳定化处理[退火]v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的现在分词 ) | |
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agrarian
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| adj.土地的，农村的，农业的 | |
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abort
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| v.使流产，堕胎；中止；中止(工作、计划等) | |
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affordable
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| adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的 | |
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abortion
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| n.流产，堕胎 | |
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abortions
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| n.小产( abortion的名词复数 )；小产胎儿；（计划）等中止或夭折；败育 | |
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fetuses
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| n.胎，胎儿( fetus的名词复数 ) | |
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mere
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| adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过 | |
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dedication
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| n.奉献，献身，致力，题献，献辞 | |
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celebrated
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| adj.有名的，声誉卓著的 | |
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impoverished
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| adj.穷困的，无力的，用尽了的v.使（某人）贫穷( impoverish的过去式和过去分词 )；使（某物）贫瘠或恶化 | |
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momentum
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| n.动力，冲力，势头；动量 | |
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cacophony
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| n.刺耳的声音 | |
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livelihood
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| n.生计，谋生之道 | |
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hygiene
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| n.健康法，卫生学 （a.hygienic） | |
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coordinator
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| n.协调人 | |
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maternal
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| adj.母亲的，母亲般的，母系的，母方的 | |
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relatively
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| adv.比较...地，相对地 | |
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laborer
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| n.劳动者，劳工 | |
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fiddling
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| 微小的 | |
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bracelets
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| n.手镯，臂镯( bracelet的名词复数 ) | |
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helping
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| n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的 | |
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marvel
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| vi.(at)惊叹vt.感到惊异；n.令人惊异的事 | |
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shudders
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| n.颤动，打颤，战栗( shudder的名词复数 )v.战栗( shudder的第三人称单数 )；发抖；（机器、车辆等）突然震动；颤动 | |
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flinch
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| v.畏缩，退缩 | |
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