TED演讲:我们能在打造人工智能的同时掌握控制权吗?(5)

 Sorry, a chicken. There's no reason for me to make this talk more depressing than it needs to be. 抱歉，母鸡的位置应该在这。这个演讲已经够严肃了，开个玩笑轻松一下。

It seems overwhelmingly likely, however, that the spectrum¹ of intelligence extends much further than we currently conceive, 然而，很可能的情况是，智慧谱线上的内容已远远超出了我们的认知，

and if we build machines that are more intelligent than we are, 如果我们建造了比自身更聪明的机器，

they will very likely explore this spectrum in ways that we can't imagine, and exceed us in ways that we can't imagine. 它们将非常可能以超乎寻常的方式延展这个谱线，最终超越人类。

And it's important to recognize that this is true by virtue² of speed alone. Right? 仅仅从速度方面考虑，我们就能够意识到这一点。

So imagine if we just built a superintelligent AI that was no smarter than your average team of researchers at Stanford or MIT. 那么，现在让我们来想象一下我们刚建好一个超级人工智能机器，大概和斯坦福或是麻省理工学院的研究员的平均水平差不多吧。

Well, electronic circuits function about a million times faster than biochemical ones, 但是，电路板要比生物系统运行速度快一百万倍，

so this machine should think about a million times faster than the minds that built it. 所以这个机器思考起来会比那些打造它的大脑快一百万倍。

So you set it running for a week, and it will perform 20,000 years of human-level intellectual work, week after week after week. 当你让它运行一周后，它将能呈现出相当于人类智慧在20000年间发展出的水平，而这个过程将周而复始。

How could we even understand, much less constrain³, a mind making this sort of progress? 那么，我们又怎么能理解，更不用说去制约一个以如此速度运行的机器呢？

The other thing that's worrying, frankly⁴, is that, imagine the best case scenario⁵. 坦白讲，另一件令人担心的事就是，我们考虑一下最理想的情景。

So imagine we hit upon a design of superintelligent AI that has no safety concerns. 想象我们正好做出了一个没有任何安全隐患的超级人工智能。

We have the perfect design the first time around. 我们有了一个前所未有的完美设计。

It's as though we've been handed an oracle⁶ that behaves exactly as intended. 就好像我们被赐予了一件神物，它能够准确的执行目标动作。

Well, this machine would be the perfect labor-saving device. 这个机器将完美的节省人力工作。

It can design the machine that can build the machine that can do any physical work, 它设计出的机器能够再生产其他机器，去完成所有的人力工作，

powered by sunlight, more or less for the cost of raw materials. 由太阳能供电，而成本的多少仅取决于原材料。

So we're talking about the end of human drudgery⁷. We're also talking about the end of most intellectual work. 那么，我们正在谈论的就是人力劳动的终结。也关乎脑力劳动的终结。

1 spectrum   

n.谱，光谱，频谱；范围，幅度，系列

参考例句：

• This is a kind of atomic spectrum.这是一种原子光谱。
• We have known much of the constitution of the solar spectrum.关于太阳光谱的构成，我们已了解不少。

2 virtue   

n.德行，美德；贞操；优点；功效，效力

参考例句：

• He was considered to be a paragon of virtue.他被认为是品德尽善尽美的典范。
• You need to decorate your mind with virtue.你应该用德行美化心灵。

3 constrain   

vt.限制，约束；克制，抑制

参考例句：

• She tried to constrain herself from a cough in class.上课时她竭力忍住不咳嗽。
• The study will examine the factors which constrain local economic growth.这项研究将考查抑制当地经济发展的因素。

4 frankly   

adv.坦白地，直率地；坦率地说

参考例句：

• To speak frankly, I don't like the idea at all.老实说，我一点也不赞成这个主意。
• Frankly speaking, I'm not opposed to reform.坦率地说，我不反对改革。

5 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

6 oracle   

n.神谕，神谕处，预言

参考例句：

• In times of difficulty,she pray for an oracle to guide her.在困难的时候，她祈祷神谕来指引她。
• It is a kind of oracle that often foretells things most important.它是一种内生性神谕，常常能预言最重要的事情。

7 drudgery   

n.苦工，重活，单调乏味的工作

参考例句：

• People want to get away from the drudgery of their everyday lives.人们想摆脱日常生活中单调乏味的工作。
• He spent his life in pointlessly tiresome drudgery.他的一生都在做毫无意义的烦人的苦差事。