经济学人387:鸣金收兵 美国公司的利润可能已达到本周期内的最高值

 　　Buttonwood

　　梧桐树专栏

　　Sound the retreat

　　鸣金收兵

　　Profits in America may have peaked for this cycle

　　美国公司的利润可能已达到本周期内的最高值

　　ARE corporate¹ profits at last running out of steam? The lead-up to the first-quarter results season on Wall Street was marked by an unusually large number of profit warnings, such as that from Chevron², an oil group. According to Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, earnings³ estimates for S&P 500 companies were revised down by 4.4 percentage points in the first quarter.

　　公司的利润最终失去势头了么？即将到来的华尔街第一季度财报季中，包括石油集团雪福龙在内的异常多的盈利警告成为了显著特征。根据投行摩根史坦利的说法，第一季度标普500指数成分股公司的盈利预期被调低了4.4个百分点。

　　As is the custom, having lowered the bar, companies will now beat those revised forecasts, allowing Wall Street analysts⁴ to proclaim a “successful” results reason. But when one removes the effect of exceptional items, American profits are now falling, not rising, according to data from MSCI.

　　按照惯例，各公司降低了标准后，现在能击败了那些调低的预测值，并使得华尔街分析师们纷纷赞扬这个“成功的”财报季。但根据来自MSCI的数据，一旦排除掉那些例外事项的影响，美国公司的利润现在正在下滑，而非上升。

　　美国公司.jpg

　　In a sense, this is about time. The recovery in American corporate profits since the recession has been remarkable⁵: they are close to a post-war high as a proportion of GDP. Bulls have a number of arguments why this is a lasting⁶, not cyclical, phenomenon. Economic power has shifted from labour to capital thanks to globalisation, they say; companies can move production to parts of the world where wages are lower. But if that effect is so strong, why aren’t profits as high elsewhere? In Britain the return on corporate capital is below its post-1997 average.

　　从某种意义上讲，现在确实到时候了。自经济衰退以来，美国公司的利润复苏取得了显著进展：其占GDP的比重已接近了二战之后的最高值。对行情持乐观态度的人们有着一大堆的理由来解释为何这是一种持续性现象，而非周期性现象。他们表示，全球化使得经济实力从劳动力转移到了资本；公司可以把生产转移到世界上那些工资更低的地区。但是，如果这种效应如此强烈，为何其他地区公司的利润没有这么高？英国的资本收益率已低于其1997年以后的平均水平。

　　An alternative, but related, line of reasoning is that foreign profits have boosted the earnings of companies in the S&P 500, making the relationship with domestic GDP less relevant. America may still be running a trade deficit⁷ but its global champions, the argument runs, are raking in the money overseas. Research by Audit⁸ Analytics found that the amount of profits held abroad and not repatriated⁹ nearly doubled to 2.1 trillion between 2008 and 2013.

　　另一种与此有关联的推测在于，国外利润提升了标普500指数成分股公司的总体收益，使得后者与国内GDP的相关性更低。美国可能仍存在贸易赤字，但是如本观点所说，其国际领军企业在海外赚了不少钱。Audit Analytics研究发现，2008-2013年间，海外获得且尚未汇回的利润数达到了2.1万亿美元，几乎翻了一番。

　　But where will American multinationals¹⁰ make so much money in future? Not in either Europe or Japan, where the economies have barely grown in recent years. Emerging markets might seem more promising¹¹, but their economies have been slowing, as companies like Diageo, a drinks producer, and Cisco, a tech-components group, have reported. Several developing economies have seen their currencies fall sharply too. It seems unlikely that American multinationals are going to get a further spurt¹² of profits from this source.

　　但是，将来美国的跨国公司还能从哪儿赚到这么多钱呢？不会是欧洲或是日本，因为近些年它们的经济几乎没有增长。新兴市场可能看上去更有前景，但鉴于诸如饮料生产企业帝亚吉欧和技术元件集团思科等公司已经发布的数据，它们的经济也已放缓。一些发展中经济体也已目睹了本国货币大幅下降。似乎美国的跨国公司不可能再从这个源头得到进一步的井喷式利润增长。

　　In any case, the global data do not bear out the overseas-profit argument. Just as in America, there have been regular disappointments. In 2012, according to Citibank, global profits growth was just 2%, compared with initial forecasts of 11%. At the start of 2013 profits were forecast to rise by 12%; the actual increase was 7%.

　　无论如何，全球的数据并不支持“海外利润”理论。正如在美国，也已出现了常见的令人失望的结果。根据花旗银行结论，2012年全球利润增长率仅为2%，相比之下，初步预测可是到了11%。2013年初，利润预测增长12%，但实际增长仅为7%。

　　The stockmarket has been remarkably¹³ resilient in the face of these setbacks. In 2012 global equities¹⁴ rose by 13%; last year they managed 24%. In part, that is due to optimism about the economy’s future trajectory¹⁵. The euro-zone crisis has disappeared from the headlines while the American economy has been showing signs of returning to healthy growth.

　　面临着这些波折时，股市已表现出极强的弹性。2012年全球股票增长了13%；去年增长了24%。在某种程度上，这要归因于对经济未来发展轨迹的乐观情绪。欧元区金融危机已从新闻头条上消失，同时美国经济也已出现了回归健康增长的迹象。

　　But it is also down to supportive monetary¹⁶ policy. Short-term interest rates have not budged¹⁷ for the past two years (in the developed world) and government-bond yields have been close to historic lows. Investors¹⁸ have accordingly turned to the stockmarket in search of higher returns. Low interest rates have also played their part in keeping profits high, by reducing borrowing costs and by encouraging companies to use their spare cash to buy back stock, thereby¹⁹ increasing earnings per share.

　　但它同样是支持性货币政策所起的作用。过去两年短期利率一直没有变化，政府债券收益率也接近了历史最低水平。投资者相应地转向股票市场寻求更高回报。低利率通过降低借款成本、鼓励公司使用闲置资金回购股票，在提升利润方面起到了一定作用，也由此提高了每股收益。

　　However, buying back shares suggests a certain lack of imagination on the part of chief executives, or a lack of profitable projects to back. That remains²⁰ an odd aspect of the profits boom: in theory, if the return on capital is high, one would expect a lot of capital to be invested. The resulting competition would eventually cause profits to fall. The process acts as a natural check on profits growth, but has yet to occur this cycle.

　　然而，回购股票表明了首席执行官在一定程度上缺乏前景设想，或公司缺少需要支持的盈利项目。利润丰厚的现象中仍存在一个奇怪之处：理论上，如果资本收益率很高，人们将期望能拥有大量可供投资的资本，由此导致的竞争将最终导致利润下滑。这一过程是对利润增长率的一种自然而然的检验，但本周期内尚未出现。

　　Instead, chief executives are turning to that old device for boosting sluggish²¹ profits: takeovers. According to Thomson Reuters, the global value of mergers²² and acquisitions in the first quarter was 36% higher than in the same period of 2013. The right takeover can result in cost cuts through economies of scale—although in the long run, the academic evidence in favour of takeovers is mixed.

　　相反地，首席执行官们正在转向“收购”这一陈旧手段来刺激缓慢增长的利润。根据汤森路透的结果，第一季度全球的并购价值比2013年同期高出了36%。适宜的收购能通过规模经济实现成本削减——但是长远来看，支持收购的学术证据比较混杂。

　　A takeover boom is a classic signal of the final stages of a bull market, a sign that financial engineering has taken over from genuine business expansion. And that is hardly a surprise: the current rally is already the fourth-largest and the fifth-longest-running since 1928.

　　收购热潮是牛市最后阶段的一个典型信号，这一信号表明，金融运作已经接替了真正的业务扩张。而且这不奇怪：当前这已经是1928年以来第四次最大规模、第五次持续时间最长的反弹了。

1 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

2 chevron   

n.V形臂章；V形图案

参考例句：

• He wore shoulderstrap rank slides with sergeant's chevrons.他佩戴标示级别的肩章，上面有中士的V形标志。
• The chevron or arrow road sign indicates a sharp bend to the left or right.V形或箭头路标表示有向左或向右的急转弯。

3 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。

6 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

7 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

8 audit   

v.审计；查帐；核对；旁听

参考例句：

• Each year they audit our accounts and certify them as being true and fair.他们每年对我们进行账务审核，以确保其真实无误。
• As usual,the yearly audit will take place in December.跟往常一样，年度审计将在十二月份进行。

9 repatriated   

v.把（某人）遣送回国，遣返( repatriate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The refugees were forcibly repatriated. 难民被强制遣送回国。
• Ancient artworks were repatriated from the US to Greece. 古代艺术品从美国遣送回希腊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 multinationals   

跨国公司( multinational的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These local companies are only small fry compared with the huge multinationals. 同那些跨国公司比，这些当地的公司不过是小鱼小虾。
• Some people believe that the multinationals have too much power. 有人认为跨国公司的权力太大了。

11 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

12 spurt   

v.喷出；突然进发；突然兴隆

参考例句：

• He put in a spurt at the beginning of the eighth lap.他进入第八圈时便开始冲刺。
• After a silence, Molly let her anger spurt out.沉默了一会儿，莫莉的怒气便迸发了出来。

13 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

14 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

15 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 budged   

v.（使）稍微移动( budge的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）改变主意，（使）让步

参考例句：

• Old Bosc had never budged an inch--he was totally indifferent. 老包斯克一直连动也没有动，他全然无所谓。 来自辞典例句
• Nobody budged you an inch. 别人一丁点儿都算计不了你。 来自辞典例句

18 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

19 thereby   

adv.因此，从而

参考例句：

• I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市，因此对它不怎么熟悉。
• He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民，因而得到了投票权。

20 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

21 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

22 mergers   

n.（两个公司的）合并( merger的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Mergers fall into three categories: horizontal, vertical, and conglomerate. 合并分为以下三种：横向合并，纵向合并和混合合并。 来自辞典例句
• Many recent mergers are concentrated within specific industries, particularly in retailing, airlines and communications. 现代许多合并企业集中进行某些特定业务，在零售业、民航和通讯业中更是如此。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件