经济学人:巴西经济 极端天气在前

 　　Brazil's economy

　　巴西经济

　　Rough weather ahead

　　极端天气在前

　　The mistakes Dilma Rousseff made during her first presidential term mean her second will be stormy

　　迪尔玛·罗塞夫在她第一个任期内所犯的错误将使她的第二个任期风雨交加

　　WHILE Dilma Rousseff prepared to be sworn in for a second term as Brazil's president on January 1st, the skies over the capital, Brasília, were forecast to be clear. But the outlook for the next four years is gloomy. Her daunting¹ to-do list includes repairing ties with America, damaged by the revelation in 2013 that its spies had tapped her phone calls. Deforestation in the Amazon region is rising after a decade of decline, and the worst drought on record threatens to bring energy and water rationing² to the industrial south-east. Preparations for the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeirorisk a reprise of the deadline- and budget-busting run-up to the 2014 football World Cup, which Brazilalso hosted. Ms Rousseff's left-wing Workers' Party (PT) and its allies are embroiled³ in a corruption⁴ scandal involving Petrobras, the state-controlled oil giant, though so far she is personally untainted.

　　当迪尔玛·罗塞夫准备一月一日的巴西总统连任宣誓时，天气预报显示首都巴西利亚是晴天。但是对于未来四年前景的展望却不容乐观。她艰巨的工作任务清单中包括修复与美国因2013年窃听丑闻而破碎的外交关系。亚马逊地区的森林破坏速度在经历十年的连续下降后重新上升，有史以来最为严重的干旱对东南地区的能源与水资源配给带来了严峻考验。2016年巴西里约热内卢奥运会的筹备工作再一次面临着预算无法按期筹集的危险，而这一风险在2014年巴西举办足球世界杯时就已经开始积累了。尽管罗塞夫本人没有任何污点，但她的左翼工党势力与其盟友却卷入国有石油巨头巴西石油公司的腐败丑闻中。

　　巴西经济.jpg

　　But it is the economy where the storm-clouds are stacked highest. The end of the commodity supercycle means falling prices for Brazilian exports of soyabeans, iron ore and, most recently, oil. And the policies Ms Rousseff pursued during her first term have proved disastrous⁵. A combination of macroeconomic laxity and microeconomic meddling⁶, intended to boost growth, merely undermined public finances and her credibility. GDP rose by just 6.7% during her first four years. Her biddable Central Bank governor, Alexandre Tombini, and finance minister, Guido Mantega, cut interest rates and let rip on public spending even as inflation rose and tax receipts slowed. If her second term is to be any better, she will need to undo⁷ much of what she did in the first.。

　　但是现在经济风暴正猛。大宗货物超级周期的结束意味着巴西出口的大豆、铁矿和石油的价格跌落。这已经证明了罗塞夫在其第一个任期内所推行的政策是灾难性的。宽松的宏观经济政策与干预性的微观经济政策相结合，旨在促进经济增长，但仅仅只是逐步削弱了公共财政体系和她的个人声誉。在她的四年任期内，国内生产总值仅仅增加了6.7%。即使在通货膨胀上升、税收收入下降的情况下，听命于她的中央银行行长亚历山大·托比尼和财政部部长吉多?曼特加依然降低利率与削减公共开支。如果她想在第二个任期内能做得更好，那么她需要停止许多她在上个任期中所做的事。

　　Ms Rousseff has made a start by recruiting Joaquim Levy⁸, a hawkish⁹ banker, to replace Mr Mantega, and Nelson Barbosa, a respected economist¹⁰, to the planning ministry¹¹, where he will oversee¹² public investment. Mr Tombini will remain at the Central Bank, but has clearly been told to take the inflation target of 4.5% seriously; since Ms Rousseff's victory in October, the benchmark interest rate has been raised from 11% to 11.75%. New agriculture and trade ministers with ties to farmers and industry signal a truce¹³ with the maligned¹⁴ private sector¹⁵. The foreign ministry, too, is expected to get a more trade-friendly boss.

　　罗塞夫已经做出了改变，她任命强硬派银行家若阿金·莱维取代吉多?曼特加曼成为新任财务部部长，受人尊敬的经济学家尼尔森·巴博萨任计划部部长，在那里他将监督公共投资。托比尼继续留任中央银行行长，但是已经被明确告知确立4.5%的通胀目标的严重性；自罗塞夫在十月的大选胜出后，银行基准利率已经从11%提高到11.75%。与农民和工业具有紧密联系的新农业贸易部部长与私营贸易部门达成了和解。外交部部长也希望获得更多能进行友好贸易往来的老板。

　　Mr Levy, in particular, has his work cut out. He has promised a primary budget surplus (before interest payments) of 1.2% of GDP in 2015 and 2% in2016 inorder to avoidBrazillosing its investment-grade credit rating. But under Mr Mantega opaque¹⁶ and inefficient¹⁷ subsidies¹⁸ to energy, transport and credit ballooned. And half of all primary public spending (including on pensions) moves in step with the minimum wage, which is to rise by around 2.5% in real terms in 2015 under a multi-year formula that links it to past GDP growth. This means that Mr Levy must find savings¹⁹ of 2.1% of GDP elsewhere. A surplus of 0.7-0.8% is more plausible²⁰, thinks Mansueto Almeida, a public-finance expert.

　　特别是莱维先生，他需要削减自己的工作。为了避免巴西失去其投资级别信用评级，他已经承诺的基本预算盈余（支付利息之前）将占2015年国内生产总值的1.2%。但是在曼特加针对能源不透明与低效补贴的情况下下，运输和信用问题不断膨胀。根据过去国内生产总值的相关公式计算，约一半初级公共支出（包括养老金）与最低工资均稳步提高，增长将约2.5%。这意味着莱维必须从其他地方找到占国内生产总值的2.1%的盈余。公共财政专家艾梅达认为0.7%-0.8%的盈余才更为合理。

　　Even hitting that lower target will mean cutting public investment and raising taxes—thereby making a return to growth even harder to achieve in the short term.Brazil's tax burden, already at 36% of GDP, is far higher than that of other middle-income countries. And its big construction firms, which are alleged²¹ to have bribed²² Petrobras for contracts, are likely to get caught up in legal proceedings²³ and thus barred from public work. That puts at risk planned infrastructure²⁴ projects budgeted at 870 billion reais ($325 billion), including some needed for the Olympics. After a 7.2% drop in investment in 2014, Itaú, a bank, expects investment to be flat in 2015. Analysts²⁵ have duly slashed²⁶ growth forecasts for 2015 from 2.5% a year ago to 0.8% or less. Some predict an outright²⁷ recession.

　　即使要达到较低的目标也将意味着公共投资的削减和税收的提高，以此来恢复增长，这甚至难以在短期内达到。巴西的税收负担，已经达到了GDP的36%，远远高于其他中等收入国家。其最大的建筑企业，被指控向巴西石油公司进行贿赂而获取合约是指贿赂，有可能因为陷入法律诉讼而被禁止进行公共工作。这增加了预算为8700亿雷亚尔（3250亿美元）的基建项目的计划风险，其中包括一些奥运所需要的设施。当2014年的投资总额下降7.2%以后，巴西伊塔乌投资银行银行，预计2015的投资总额将与其持平。分析师们已经将2015年经济增长预期从一年前的2.5%下调到到0.8%甚至更少。有人预测经济将出现衰退。

　　Mr Levy's task should become slightly easier in 2016, when, thanks to stalled GDP growth, spending linked to the minimum wage should merely keep pace with inflation. Ms Rousseff's, by contrast, is likely to become harder, thinks Jo?o Castro Neves of Eurasia Group, a consultancy. The PT's left-wingers and their sympathisers in trade unions and social movements despise Mr Levy, whom they call “Scissorhands”. The party's allies in government are in a mutinous²⁸ mood: in December 35 of 71 congressmen from its biggest coalition²⁹ partner refused to vote with the government to revise this year's unattainable primary-surplus target of 1.9% (though the measure passed anyway). The Petrobras affair, which the opposition³⁰ is exploiting with gusto, will further deplete³¹ the president's already diminished political capital.

　　莱维先生在2016年的的任务将变得容易些，由于停滞的GDP增长，与最低工资相关的支出应跟上通货膨胀的速度。相反的，罗塞夫的任务可能会变得更加困难，美国智库欧亚集团的分析师若奥·卡斯特罗·内维斯认为。工党的左翼分子和他们的工会运动、社会运动支持者并不待见莱维先生，并称他为“剪刀手”。该党在政府中的盟友存在反叛的情绪：在12月，71名国会议员中的35人拒绝投票赞成政府修订今年无法实现的1.9%的初级盈余目标（尽管最后法案获得了通过）。反对党对巴西石油公司事件的深度挖掘与利用，将进一步消耗总统日益减少的政治资本。

　　Austerity will also hit her popularity in the country at large. Petrol prices have already gone up; electricity and public transport are next. The most recent plan to raise bus fares in big cities, in June 2013, sparked the biggest protests in a generation, and was quickly dropped. Any fiscal³² and monetary³³ adjustment big enough to restore public finances is sure to push up the jobless rate, which is now close to a record low of around 5%.

　　紧缩政策也会降低她在国内的支持率。汽油的价格已经上涨了；电力和公共交通则是下一个。最新的计划是在大城市提高巴士票价，在2013年六月，这引起了一个群体的强烈反对于是很快就被废弃了。任何足以恢复公共财政的财务和货币调整都肯定会推高失业率，现在的失业率维持在5%左右，接近历史最低值。

　　Ideally, Ms Rousseff will let Mr Levy snip³⁴ away, and use the Petrobras scandal to revitalise the ailing³⁵ oil and construction industries by opening them up to foreign competition and dropping onerous³⁶ (and graft-inducing) local-content rules. But having promised Brazilians that belt-tightening would be painless, she may unbuckle at the first twinges of discomfort³⁷. Even if she does not, her new-found appetite for reforms will not be matched by her capacity to accomplish them.

　　理想的情况是，罗塞夫将让利维自行去处理，并且利用巴西石油公司的丑闻去振兴境况不佳的石油，通过引入国外竞争力、减少当地法规限制去发展建筑产业。但是罗塞夫已经向国民许诺紧缩政策将不会为他们生活带来痛苦，她也许解除第一次阵痛带来的不适。即使她没有诺，她目前的能力将无法帮助他去实现新的改革愿望。

1 daunting   

adj.使人畏缩的

参考例句：

• They were faced with the daunting task of restoring the house.他们面临着修复房子的艰巨任务。
• Starting a new job can be a daunting prospect.开始一项新工作有时会让人望而却步。

2 rationing   

n.定量供应

参考例句：

• Wartime austerities included food rationing and shortage of fuel. 战时的艰苦包括食物配给和燃料短缺。
• Food rationing was abolished in that country long ago. 那个国家早就取消了粮食配给制。

3 embroiled   

adj.卷入的；纠缠不清的

参考例句：

• He became embroiled in a dispute with his neighbours. 他与邻居们发生了争执。
• John and Peter were quarrelling, but Mary refused to get embroiled. 约翰和彼得在争吵，但玛丽不愿卷入。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

5 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

6 meddling   

v.干涉，干预（他人事务）( meddle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He denounced all "meddling" attempts to promote a negotiation. 他斥责了一切“干预”促成谈判的企图。 来自辞典例句
• They liked this field because it was never visited by meddling strangers. 她们喜欢这块田野，因为好事的陌生人从来不到那里去。 来自辞典例句

7 undo   

vt.解开，松开；取消，撤销

参考例句：

• His pride will undo him some day.他的傲慢总有一天会毁了他。
• I managed secretly to undo a corner of the parcel.我悄悄地设法解开了包裹的一角。

8 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

9 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

12 oversee   

vt.监督，管理

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts.士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Use a surveyor or architect to oversee and inspect the different stages of the work.请一位房产检视员或建筑师来监督并检查不同阶段的工作。

13 truce   

n.休战，(争执，烦恼等的)缓和；v.以停战结束

参考例句：

• The hot weather gave the old man a truce from rheumatism.热天使这位老人暂时免受风湿病之苦。
• She had thought of flying out to breathe the fresh air in an interval of truce.她想跑出去呼吸一下休战期间的新鲜空气。

14 maligned   

vt.污蔑，诽谤（malign的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• She feels she has been much maligned by the press. 她觉得她遭到了新闻界的恣意诽谤。
• We maligned him dreadfully when you come to think of it. 回头想想，我们狠狠地中伤了他。 来自辞典例句

15 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

16 opaque   

adj.不透光的；不反光的，不传导的；晦涩的

参考例句：

• The windows are of opaque glass.这些窗户装着不透明玻璃。
• Their intentions remained opaque.他们的意图仍然令人费解。

17 inefficient   

adj.效率低的，无效的

参考例句：

• The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money.低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
• Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme.他们的通讯系统效率非常差。

18 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

20 plausible   

adj.似真实的，似乎有理的，似乎可信的

参考例句：

• His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
• Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。

21 alleged   

a.被指控的，嫌疑的

参考例句：

• It was alleged that he had taken bribes while in office. 他被指称在任时收受贿赂。
• alleged irregularities in the election campaign 被指称竞选运动中的不正当行为

22 bribed   

v.贿赂( bribe的过去式和过去分词 )；向（某人）行贿，贿赂

参考例句：

• They bribed him with costly presents. 他们用贵重的礼物贿赂他。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He bribed himself onto the committee. 他暗通关节，钻营投机挤进了委员会。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

23 proceedings   

n.进程，过程，议程；诉讼(程序)；公报

参考例句：

• He was released on bail pending committal proceedings. 他交保获释正在候审。
• to initiate legal proceedings against sb 对某人提起诉讼

24 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

25 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

26 slashed   

v.挥砍( slash的过去式和过去分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Someone had slashed the tyres on my car. 有人把我的汽车轮胎割破了。
• He slashed the bark off the tree with his knife. 他用刀把树皮从树上砍下。 来自《简明英汉词典》

27 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

28 mutinous   

adj.叛变的，反抗的；adv.反抗地，叛变地；n.反抗，叛变

参考例句：

• The mutinous sailors took control of the ship.反叛的水手们接管了那艘船。
• His own army,stung by defeats,is mutinous.经历失败的痛楚后，他所率军队出现反叛情绪。

29 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

30 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

31 deplete   

v.弄空，排除，减轻，减少...体液，放去...的血

参考例句：

• Most native mammal species have been severely depleted.大多数本地哺乳动物的数量都已经大大减少了。
• Elastic collisions deplete very little of the electron's energy.弹性碰撞中电子减少的能量非常少。

32 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

33 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

34 snip   

n.便宜货，廉价货，剪，剪断

参考例句：

• He has now begun to snip away at the piece of paper.现在他已经开始剪这张纸。
• The beautifully made briefcase is a snip at £74.25.这个做工精美的公文包售价才74.25英镑，可谓物美价廉。

35 ailing   

v.生病

参考例句：

• They discussed the problems ailing the steel industry. 他们讨论了困扰钢铁工业的问题。
• She looked after her ailing father. 她照顾有病的父亲。

36 onerous   

adj.繁重的

参考例句：

• My household duties were not particularly onerous.我的家务活并不繁重。
• This obligation sometimes proves onerous.这一义务有时被证明是艰巨的。

37 discomfort   

n.不舒服，不安，难过，困难，不方便

参考例句：

• One has to bear a little discomfort while travelling.旅行中总要忍受一点不便。
• She turned red with discomfort when the teacher spoke.老师讲话时她不好意思地红着脸。