经济学人119:游击战的历史 以弱胜强之道

 　　Books and arts

　　文艺

　　A history of guerrilla warfare¹

　　游击战的历史

　　How the weak vanquish² the strong

　　以弱胜强之道

　　Fighting an insurgency³ requires patience, restraint and a good public-relations strategy

　　平定叛乱需要耐心，克制和良好的战略公关

　　Invisible Armies: An Epic⁴ History of Guerrilla Warfare from Ancient Times to the Present.

　　《看不见的军队》:一部述说古今游击战的史诗。

　　By Max Boot. Liveright; 750 pages; $35.

　　作者:Max Boot. Liveright；750页，定价35美元。

　　To be published in Britain in February by W.W. Norton; 25.

　　W.W. Norton将于2月份在英国出版；定价25英镑。

　　Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

　　可以在英国亚马逊网上书城购买。

　　LIKE the poor, guerrilla armies have, it seems, always been with us.

　　游击队就像穷人一样，似乎一直都伴随在我们左右。

　　From the nomadic⁵ rebels who brought down the Roman empire to the internet-savvy, plane-exploding jihadists who triggered America's ill-conceived global war on terror, irregular forces are a constant factor in the history of warfare.

　　游牧叛乱武装打垮了罗马帝国；互联网专家，爆炸飞机的圣战分子使美国开启了思谋不周的全球反恐战争，非正规部队是战争历史中的一个永恒元素。

　　游击战.jpg

　　And fighting them has become tougher than ever.

　　现在对付游击武装比以往更棘手。

　　Plenty of literature gives advice on how to beat such maddening foes⁶.

　　很多文献给都教你如何击败这些令人发狂的敌人。

　　Max Boot, a neoconservative American military historian, has done something different.

　　属于新保守派的美国军事历史学家Max Boot做了一些不同的工作，

　　Invisible Armies is a narrative⁷ history of guerrilla warfare and terrorism, ranging from what he describes as its origins, in bringing down the Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia in the 22nd century BC, to the present day.

　　《看不见的军队》叙述了从古至今的游击战和恐怖行动。他认为这种战争起源于公元前22世纪，美索不达米亚的阿卡德帝国就是被游击战摧毁的。

　　The author moves quite quickly over the first 4,000 years or so and only really gets going in the 18th century, with its revolutionary wars of independence.

　　作者很快讲完了前4000年的历史，从18世纪的独立革命战争切入，这大概是真正游击战的发端。

　　Among the many liberal insurgencies he considers are the American revolution; the struggle against Napoleon in the Iberian peninsula; Greece's war for independence against the Ottomans; the wars of unification in Italy and various uprisings against colonial powers, such as the slave revolt against the French that led to the foundation of the Republic of Haiti.

　　在很多自由起义中，他思考了美国革命，伊比利亚半岛反对拿破仑的斗争，希腊人反抗奥斯曼人独立战争，意大利统一之战以及各种反抗殖民势力的起义，如反抗法国的奴隶起义引发了海地共和国的成立。

　　In the 20th century Mr Boot examines the impact of irregular forces in the two world wars; the contribution to insurgent⁸ theory of Mao Zedong's seminal⁹ work On Guerrilla Warfare, gleaned¹⁰ from his experiences in the Chinese civil war; the very different French and British responses to rebellions against their fading empires; the radical¹¹ chic¹² revolutionaries of the 1960s and the rise of radical Islamism.

　　Boot先生仔细观察了非正规部队对20世纪两次世界大战的影响；毛泽东那部给起义理论做出贡献的有开创性的著作《论游击战》，这是他从中国内战中收获的经验，不同于逐渐衰落的英法帝国处理叛乱事件；上世纪60年代激进派时髦的革命和极端伊斯兰分子的叛乱。

　　If this sounds a bit like a list, it is because of the way the book is organised. Mr Boot picks a theme, for example, The End of Empire, and then hoovers up into that section all the conflicts that can be made to fit that description.

　　上面的内容有点像开列清单，因为这是本书的组织方式，Boot先生选择一个主题，例如帝国的终结，然后把所有符合主题的斗争收录到这个部分。

　　Each one gets a few pages of lively narrative and a brief analysis of why one side prevailed over the other.

　　每个主题都占据几页篇幅，叙述的很生动，并且简要地分析了一方为何能战胜另一方。

　　The formula works rather well. Even when the author is rattling¹³ through fairly familiar territory, such as the failures of the French against the Vietminh, he usually finds something fresh or pithy¹⁴ to say.

　　这种方式的效果很好。即使述说大家熟悉的事情，作者也能讲出点新鲜东西和独到见解。

　　Take, for example, Vo Nguyen Giap, the brilliant Communist general who succeeded in expelling first the French and then the Americans from Vietnam.

　　例如杰出的共产党将领武元甲成功地把法国人和美国人先后赶出越南。

　　Giap closely followed the teachings of Mao in planning a three-stage struggle,first localised guerrilla war, then war of movement and finally general uprising,which he waged with a three-tier force of village militias¹⁵, full-time¹⁶ guerrillas and a regular army.

　　武元甲密切遵循毛泽东的教导，制定了一个包含三个阶段的斗争—先是局部的游击战，接着实施运动战，最后发动大起义 —他投入了三种力量:民兵、专职游击队和正规军。

　　But where Mao was always cautious to avoid confrontations¹⁷ with more powerful forces, Giap's tendency to roll the dice¹⁸ on premature¹⁹ offensives in 1951, 1968 and again in 1972 could have proved fatal each time had it not been for the psychological and political frailties²⁰ of the other side.

　　毛泽东总是谨慎地避免和更强大的力量发生对抗，但是武元甲愿意为过早攻击孤注一掷。1951年，1968年和接下来的1972年他都用了这种方法，要不是对方存在着心理上和政策上的弱点，这三次作战就不会造成致命的影响。

　　In guerrilla warfare, what matters most is the ability to shape the story, not the facts on the ground.

　　在游击战中，最重要的是推动战争向前发展的能力，而非战场上的实际情况。

　　This is how guerrillas are able to win wars even as they lose battles.

　　这就是游击队即使战斗失利的情况下仍然能够赢得战争。

　　Because insurgencies pit the weak against the strong, most still end up failing.

　　因为这些起义以弱势抗强敌，大部分还是以失败告终。

　　Between 1775 and 1945 only about a quarter achieved most or all of their aims.

　　Boot先生说，从1775年至1945年，只有四分之一的起义完成了自己的大部分或全部目标。

　　But since 1945 that number has risen to 40%, according to Mr Boot.

　　但是自1945年以来，成功率增长到了40%。

　　Part of the reason for the improving success rate is the rising importance of public opinion.

　　成功率的提高部分原因是公众舆论的重要性日益突出。

　　Since 1945 the spread of democracy, education, mass media and the concept of international law have all conspired²¹,

　　自1945年以来，民主、教育、大众媒体和国际公法的概念得到推广，

　　to sap the will of states engaged in protracted²² counter-insurgencies.

　　这都削弱了应对长期叛乱的国家意志。

　　In the battle over the narrative, insurgents²³ have many more weapons at their disposal than before.

　　战斗过程中，可供叛乱分子使用的武器比以前多得多。

　　Mr Boot does not conclude that counter-insurgency in the 21st century is a losing game.

　　Boot先生没有推断在21世纪镇压叛乱是徒劳之举。

　　But to prevail requires an understanding of the game's rules.

　　然而获胜之前要理解游戏的规则。

　　He is a powerful advocate for the so-called population-centric approach pioneered by the British during the 12-year post-war Malayan Emergency, which lasted until 1960, and rediscovered by American generals,such as David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal in Iraq and Afghanistan,only after things there had gone disastrously²⁴ wrong.

　　他极力鼓吹所谓以民众为中心的方法，这是战后英国在应对马来亚12年危机时倡导的理论，美军将领如分别在伊拉克和阿富汗的局势,严重恶化之后对此做出重新发现。

　　The first principle is to abandon conventional military tactics.

　　第一原则是放弃常规战术。

　　Clear and hold beats search and destroy.

　　清除和控制胜过搜寻和破坏。

　　To defeat an insurgency you must provide enough security for ordinary people to live their lives.

　　要平息叛乱，必须给普通民众的生活提供充足的安全保障。

　　The second is that legitimacy²⁵ is vital for both sides: corrupt²⁶ or excessively violent governments will always struggle,

　　第二合法性对双方来说都是重要的:腐败或过于暴力的政府一直会引发斗争，

　　but so too will guerrillas who terrorise their own people.

　　但是游击队也会威胁本国人民。

　　The third is staying power.

　　第三是耐力。

　　Firepower is no substitute for patience and boots on the ground.

　　在战场上火力不能取代忍耐力和士气。

　　The people you need on your side must believe that you are in it for the long haul.

　　必须要让你争取的民众相信你会长期和他们在一起。

　　The fourth is that most counter-insurgency campaigns abroad are lost at home.

　　第四大部分在海外开展的镇压叛乱的战斗都输在国内。

　　Liberal democracies have short attention spans, low tolerance²⁷ for casualties and other calls on their cash.

　　自由主义的民主国家对于需要花钱的重大伤亡事故和其他征召不大关注，容忍度也不高。

　　Unless voters believe that an intervention²⁸ is necessary for their own security they will quickly withdraw support for it.

　　除非选民认为有必要采取干涉措施才能保障自身的安全，否则他们会很快放弃对这种行动的支持。

　　All of which explains why things are not going well in Afghanistan.

　　以上情况都可以解释为什么阿富汗的事情进展不顺。

　　The population-centric approach—and the troop surge needed to realise it came late in the day and with a foolishly rigid²⁹ deadline.

　　实行以民众为中心的方法和增加部队都来的太晚，而且愚蠢地附带着严格的时限。

　　The Afghan government has some popular legitimacy, but not enough in the places where the insurgency is resilient.

　　阿富汗政府在一定程度上拥有广泛的合法性，但是在叛乱行动回弹的地方该政府的合法性还是不足。

　　Nor has it been possible for American forces to deny the Taliban their sanctuary³⁰ in Pakistan: insurgencies with outside support are much harder to beat.

　　美国人不可能容忍塔利班在巴基斯坦避难:得到外部支持的叛乱更加难以平息。

　　Voters in America and Europe are not prepared to spend any more blood or money on what most presume is a lost cause.

　　美国和欧洲的选民还不想在大部分人看来要注定失败的行动上流更多的血，花更多的钱。

　　Few think that what happens in Afghanistan will affect their own safety.

　　几乎没有人意识到发生在阿富汗的事情会影响到自己的安全。

　　Counter-insurgency may be out of fashion again, but it remains³¹ necessary to know how to do it.

　　镇压叛乱可能又过时了。但是我们还需要如何应对叛乱。

　　Mr Boot offers a timely reminder³² to politicians and generals of the hard-earned lessons of history.

　　Boot先生及时地向军政要人提醒了这个得来不易的历史教训。

　　1.bring down 降；抬下

　　Family workers bring down costs.

　　家庭工人降低了成本。

　　But the kingdom has recently taken steps to bring down prices, consulting refiners and offering extra oil.

　　但沙特最近已采取措施以压低油价，与炼油厂磋商，提出可供应额外石油。

　　2.lead to 导致,引起

　　Osteoporosis may also lead to tooth loss.

　　骨质疏松可能会导致牙齿脱落。

　　Salary differences between countries can lead to resentment³³.

　　不同国家间的薪酬差异会引起相互的敌视。

　　3.hoover up 吸纳

　　Hsbc mexico was well-placed to hoover up those dollars.

　　汇丰墨西哥分行在吸纳这些资金方面处于有利地位。

　　They will hoover up bonds, whatever their rating.

　　无论评级如何，他们都会吸纳债券。

　　4.succeed in 取得成功

　　Outsiders seldom succeed in turning around a luxury brand.

　　局外人很少成功使得某一奢侈品牌成功脱困。

　　May you succeed in the coming new year!

　　祝你在新的一年里取得成功！

1 warfare   

n.战争(状态)；斗争；冲突

参考例句：

• He addressed the audience on the subject of atomic warfare.他向听众演讲有关原子战争的问题。
• Their struggle consists mainly in peasant guerrilla warfare.他们的斗争主要是农民游击战。

2 vanquish   

v.征服，战胜；克服；抑制

参考例句：

• He tried to vanquish his fears.他努力克服恐惧心理。
• It is impossible to vanquish so strong an enemy without making an extensive and long-term effort.现在要战胜这样一个强敌，非有长期的广大的努力是不可能的。

3 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

4 epic   

n.史诗，叙事诗；adj.史诗般的，壮丽的

参考例句：

• I gave up my epic and wrote this little tale instead.我放弃了写叙事诗，而写了这个小故事。
• They held a banquet of epic proportions.他们举行了盛大的宴会。

5 nomadic   

adj.流浪的；游牧的

参考例句：

• This tribe still live a nomadic life.这个民族仍然过着游牧生活。
• The plowing culture and the nomadic culture are two traditional principal cultures in China.农耕文化与游牧文化是我国传统的两大主体文化。

6 foes   

敌人，仇敌( foe的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They steadily pushed their foes before them. 他们不停地追击敌人。
• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。

7 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

8 insurgent   

adj.叛乱的，起事的；n.叛乱分子

参考例句：

• Faruk says they are threatened both by insurgent and government forces.法鲁克说，他们受到暴乱分子和政府军队的双重威胁。
• The insurgent mob assembled at the gate of the city park.叛变的暴徒聚在市立公园的门口。

9 seminal   

adj.影响深远的；种子的

参考例句：

• The reforms have been a seminal event in the history of the NHS.这些改革已成为英国国民保健制度史上影响深远的一件大事。
• The emperor's importance as a seminal figure of history won't be diminished.做为一个开创性历史人物的重要性是不会减弱的。

10 gleaned   

v.一点点地收集（资料、事实）( glean的过去式和过去分词 )；（收割后）拾穗

参考例句：

• These figures have been gleaned from a number of studies. 这些数据是通过多次研究收集得来的。
• A valuable lesson may be gleaned from it by those who have eyes to see. 明眼人可从中记取宝贵的教训。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

12 chic   

n./adj.别致(的)，时髦(的)，讲究的

参考例句：

• She bought a chic little hat.她买了一顶别致的小帽子。
• The chic restaurant is patronized by many celebrities.这家时髦的饭店常有名人光顾。

13 rattling   

adj. 格格作响的, 活泼的, 很好的 adv. 极其, 很, 非常 动词rattle的现在分词

参考例句：

• This book is a rattling good read. 这是一本非常好的读物。
• At that same instant,a deafening explosion set the windows rattling. 正在这时，一声震耳欲聋的爆炸突然袭来，把窗玻璃震得当当地响。

14 pithy   

adj.(讲话或文章)简练的

参考例句：

• Many of them made a point of praising the film's pithy dialogue.他们中很多人特别赞扬了影片精炼的对白。
• His pithy comments knocked the bottom out of my argument.他精辟的评论驳倒了我的论点。

15 militias   

n.民兵组织，民兵( militia的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The troops will not attempt to disarm the warring militias. 部队并不打算解除战斗中的民兵武装。 来自辞典例句
• The neighborhood was a battleground for Shiite and Sunni militias. 那里曾是什叶派和逊尼派武装分子的战场。 来自互联网

16 full-time   

adj.满工作日的或工作周的，全时间的

参考例句：

• A full-time job may be too much for her.全天工作她恐怕吃不消。
• I don't know how she copes with looking after her family and doing a full-time job.既要照顾家庭又要全天工作，我不知道她是如何对付的。

17 confrontations   

n.对抗，对抗的事物( confrontation的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• At times, this potential has escalated into actual confrontations. 有时，这一矛盾升级为实际的对抗。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法
• These confrontations and uncertainties were bing played out for the first time on a global scale. 所有这一切对抗和不稳定，第一次在全球范围内得到充分的表演。 来自辞典例句

18 dice   

n.骰子；vt.把（食物）切成小方块，冒险

参考例句：

• They were playing dice.他们在玩掷骰子游戏。
• A dice is a cube.骰子是立方体。

19 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

20 frailties   

n.脆弱( frailty的名词复数 )；虚弱；（性格或行为上的）弱点；缺点

参考例句：

• The fact indicates the economic frailties of this type of farming. 这一事实表明，这种类型的农业在经济上有其脆弱性。 来自辞典例句
• He failed therein to take account of the frailties of human nature--the difficulties of matrimonial life. 在此，他没有考虑到人性的种种弱点--夫妻生活的种种难处。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

21 conspired   

密谋( conspire的过去式和过去分词 )； 搞阴谋； （事件等）巧合； 共同导致

参考例句：

• They conspired to bring about the meeting of the two people. 他们共同促成了两人的会面。
• Bad weather and car trouble conspired to ruin our vacation. 恶劣的气候连同汽车故障断送了我们的假日。

22 protracted   

adj.拖延的；延长的v.拖延“protract”的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争，我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》

23 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

24 disastrously   

ad.灾难性地

参考例句：

• Their profits began to spiral down disastrously. 他们的利润开始螺旋形地急剧下降。
• The fit between the country's information needs and its information media has become disastrously disjointed. 全国的信息需求与信息传播媒介之间的配置，出现了严重的不协调。

25 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

26 corrupt   

v.贿赂，收买；adj.腐败的，贪污的

参考例句：

• The newspaper alleged the mayor's corrupt practices.那家报纸断言市长有舞弊行为。
• This judge is corrupt.这个法官贪污。

27 tolerance   

n.宽容；容忍，忍受；耐药力；公差

参考例句：

• Tolerance is one of his strengths.宽容是他的一个优点。
• Human beings have limited tolerance of noise.人类对噪音的忍耐力有限。

28 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

29 rigid   

adj.严格的，死板的；刚硬的，僵硬的

参考例句：

• She became as rigid as adamant.她变得如顽石般的固执。
• The examination was so rigid that nearly all aspirants were ruled out.考试很严，几乎所有的考生都被淘汰了。

30 sanctuary   

n.圣所，圣堂，寺庙；禁猎区，保护区

参考例句：

• There was a sanctuary of political refugees behind the hospital.医院后面有一个政治难民的避难所。
• Most countries refuse to give sanctuary to people who hijack aeroplanes.大多数国家拒绝对劫机者提供庇护。

31 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

32 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

33 resentment   

n.怨愤，忿恨

参考例句：

• All her feelings of resentment just came pouring out.她一股脑儿倾吐出所有的怨恨。
• She cherished a deep resentment under the rose towards her employer.她暗中对她的雇主怀恨在心。