经济学人475:政变之后的埃及

 　　Egypt after the coup¹

　　政变之后的埃及

　　It isn’t over yet

　　一切还未终结

　　A week after the military coup that overthrew² Egypt’s elected Islamist president, the country remains³ dangerously divided

　　埃及发生军事政变，民选伊斯兰总统遭罢黜。一周之后，国家仍处于十分危急的分裂状态

　　July 13th 2013

　　2013年7月13日

　　THE words “civil war” pepper many a conversation in Cairo in the wake of the military coup on July 3rd that ousted⁵ Muhammad Morsi, a Muslim Brother, after only a year in power. On July 8th the prospect⁶ of all-out strife⁷ loomed⁸ larger after the security forces in Cairo shot dead at least 50 people who had been demanding Mr Morsi’s reinstatement.

　　7月3日，埃及发生军事政变。穆斯林兄弟会的穆罕默德?穆尔西（Muhammad Morsi）执政仅一年之久，便遭罢黜。自那以后，开罗的民众议论纷纷，“内战”这个字眼频频出现。6月8日，开罗的安全部队士兵至少开枪打死了50名要求恢复穆尔西职位的民众。形势愈加严峻，全面大战在即。

　　Egyptian society remains bitterly divided between a core of Brotherhood¹⁰ backers, who feel cheated, and the millions of people, including secular¹¹-minded and liberal Egyptians and quite a lot of religious ones, who wanted Mr Morsi to go. Above all, Egyptians need to agree on a plan to move the country back to democracy. On July 8th the judge appointed by the army as an interim¹² president unveiled a brisk timetable for bringing in a new constitution and for parliamentary and presidential elections. It is bound, at best, to be a bumpy¹³ ride.

　　埃及社会仍是严重分裂，一边是穆兄会的核心支持者，心中是上当受骗的感觉；另一边是数百万民众，其中不乏世俗自由派埃及人以及大批宗教人士，他们要的是穆尔西下台。最重要的是，埃及人需要确定一个统一方案，让国家重返民主之路。7月8日，由军方任命的临时总统——最高法院院长迅速公布了一份安排紧凑的时间表，确定了新宪法的颁布时间以及议会选举、总统大选时日。即便天时地利人和，这条路也注定坎坷。

　　The opposition¹⁴ is still crowing over Mr Morsi’s demise¹⁵. Voices calling for the vanquishing¹⁶ of “terrorists”, as the fiercer foes¹⁷ of the Muslim Brothers like to call them, seem louder than those calling for restraint and compromise. On the other side, Mr Morsi’s diehard disciples¹⁸, fearing for their survival, refuse to consider anything less than his reinstatement, which the generals now in charge are sure to dismiss out of hand. Since July 3rd Mr Morsi’s people have continued to mass in districts of eastern Cairo, where their support is strongest, to protest against the overthrow¹⁹ of their democratically elected president.

　　反对派至今还在为推翻穆尔西而沾沾自喜。要求消灭“恐怖分子”（这是更暴力的穆兄会反对派喜欢用的称呼）的人似乎比呼吁克制、折衷的人更多。而另一边，穆尔西的铁杆支持者为了他们的存亡大计，要求穆尔西复职。若不满足这个最低条件，一切免谈。但目前的军方领导人肯定会当即拒绝。自7月3日起，穆尔西的支持者就一直在开罗东部地区（他们的“大本营”）集会，抗议军方罢免他们民主选举的总统。

　　The two sides also disagree over who was to blame for the shooting on July 8th outside the Republican Guard Club, where Mr Morsi was said to be held. The actions of the security forces seemed plainly disproportionate, at the least. The interim president, Adly Mansour, called for an inquiry²⁰ without suggesting its terms, leaving the whiff of a would-be cover-up. The security forces have never hidden their hostility²¹ to the Brothers.

　　双方存在分歧的还有一点：谁该为7月8日发生共和国卫队俱乐部（Republican Guard Club）外的枪击案负责。据传，穆尔西当时就软禁于此。无论如何，守卫士兵的行为看上去显然是过分了。临时总统阿兹利?曼苏尔（Adly Mansour）下令调查此案，但他并没表达自己的立场（or 详细部署？），似乎有种想把案子压下去的意味。而安全部队从未掩饰过他们对穆兄会的敌意。

　　In response the Brotherhood’s leaders called for an uprising against the army and its head, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who launched the coup. The public prosecutor²² then issued arrest warrants for the organisation’s leaders, including its supreme²³ guide, charging them with incitement²⁴ to violence. Several hundred Brothers, including Mr Morsi, are behind bars, raising the spectre of Egypt’s “deep state”, as the security establishment is known, making a comeback.

　　作为回应，穆兄会的领导人号召民众起义，反对军方和发动政变的军方领导人——阿卜杜勒?法塔赫?西萨将军（General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi）。埃及检方随即对该组织领导（包括最高领导人在内）发出逮捕令，指控他们煽动暴乱。如今，包括穆尔西在内的几百名穆兄会成员锒铛入狱，恐惧的氛围已在酝酿，有着“暗深势力集团（deep state）”之名的国家安全部官员（穆巴拉克政权残余）似乎要卷土重来。

　　Keen to bring back stability and to persuade people that he sincerely wants to cede²⁵ power as soon as possible, General Sisi moved fast to prod²⁶ Mr Mansour into setting a rapid return to democracy. Along with his speedy timetable, the interim president issued a set of articles to replace the suspended constitution until a new one is drawn²⁷ up. He gave ten lawyers a month to amend²⁸ the constitution, to be reviewed within two months by 50 civil-society figures and put to a national referendum a month later. All being well, parliamentary elections would be followed by a presidential one early in the new year.

　　西撒将军迫切希望国家能恢复稳定，也急于让民众相信，自己是真心打算尽快交出权力，所以很快他便敦促曼苏尔制定了一套快速重返民主之路的方案。除了他那张日程紧张的时间表，临时总统还同时颁布了一系列条款。因之前宪法暂停，这些条款在新宪法出台前将充当临时宪法。根据他的安排，十名律师将花一个月修改宪法；在之后两个月内，50位民众代表将对宪法进行审核；一个月后，对新宪法公投。如果一切进展顺利，明年初将举行总统大选，随后选举议会。

　　Mr Mansour also appointed Hazem al-Beblawi, a 77-year-old economist²⁹, as prime minister. Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, who is now a leader of the secular opposition, has been appointed deputy president during the transition. Mr Beblawi has embarked³⁰ on negotiations³¹ to form a cabinet of technocrats³³, promising³⁴ posts to members of the Brotherhood and of the Salafists’ Nour party.

　　曼苏尔还任命77岁的经济学家——哈齐姆?贝卜拉维（Hazem al-Beblawi）为总理。前国际原子能机构（联合国核监督机构）总干事穆罕穆德?巴拉迪（Mohamed ElBaradei），如今作为世俗反对派领导人之一，被任命为过渡政府副总统。贝卜拉维为了组建一个由专家构成的内阁，已着手谈判。他承诺，将邀请穆兄会和萨拉菲斯特光明党（Salafists’ Nour）人士加入内阁。

　　The Brothers have so far rejected Mr Mansour’s proposals in their entirety. Since their senior members have been rounded up and their television stations shut down, they are in no mood for compromise. “All the elections we won have been thrown into the rubbish bin³² and we have been excluded from the political process, so why would we accept this?” asks Abdullah al-Keryoni, a youth member of the Brotherhood, protesting outside Cairo’s Rabea al-Adawiya mosque³⁵.

　　目前为止，穆兄会拒绝了曼苏尔的全部提议。自从他们的资深成员被捕、电视台遭关闭，穆兄会是没心情妥协的。“我们赢得的所有选举都遭人唾弃，政治议程也没我们参加的份儿，既然这样，我们凭什么要接受？“年轻的穆兄会成员阿布达拉哈?阿克约尼（Abdullah al-Keryoni）在开罗拉比亚? 阿达维亚（Rabea al-Adawiya）清真寺外抗议时问道。

　　Meanwhile, the National Salvation³⁶ Front, a grouping of liberal opposition parties under Mr ElBaradei’s co-chairmanship, said Mr Mansour had not consulted it before making his declaration and would suggest changes. Tamarod (Rebellion), the youth movement that led the protests to oust⁴ Mr Morsi, also criticised the sweeping³⁷ powers reserved for Mr Mansour. And liberals nervously³⁸ noted³⁹ the reaffirmation in the interim president’s statement that sharia should be the basis of law, presumably as an inducement to bring the Islamists back into peaceful politics. The Nour party, which had distanced itself from the Brotherhood after the coup, also objected to the content of Mr Mansour’s proclamation.

　　与此同时，由巴拉迪与他人共同领导的自由派反对党联盟“埃及救国阵线（National Salvation Front）”表示，曼苏尔在发布声明前并没征求他们的意见。联盟将针对该声明提交一些修改建议。发起抗议、罢黜穆尔西的新兴反叛组织塔马洛德（Tamarod），也谴责曼苏尔不应拥有这么大的权利。自由派人士则心有不安，他们注意到，临时总统在声明中再三强调法律应以伊斯兰教法为基础。这似乎会诱使伊斯兰主义者重新打破和平政治的局面。光明党自从政变起，就与穆兄会划清界限。而他们也反对曼苏尔声明中的规定。

　　So further clashes are likely. Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of the al-Azhar mosque and rector of the university of the same name, who is by tradition the leading authority of Sunni Islam, has called for more serious efforts to reconcile the main camps and has warned that Egypt could be heading towards civil war. “The Muslim Brotherhood will adopt self-restraint as a strategy because they know violence allows their opponents to frame them as terrorists,” says Khalil Anani, an Egyptian expert in Islamist movements. “But they may not be able to rein⁹ in young members.” The killing⁴⁰ of a Coptic priest and violence in Sinai suggest that other groups are keen to stir up trouble.

　　所以，未来很可能会发生进一步冲突。爱兹哈尔（al-Azhar）清真寺的大伊玛目及同名大学校长（依照传统，他是逊尼派穆斯林的顶级权威人士）呼吁付出更多切实努力，与埃及的主要阵营和解。他们还警告说，埃及可能正向内战的方向发展。“穆兄会将把‘自制’作为一项战略，因为他们知道，诉诸暴力会被敌人冠上‘恐怖分子’之名，”伊斯兰运动的埃及专家卡哈里?阿纳尼（Khalil Anani）说道，“但他们可能无法管束年轻成员。”西奈半岛（Sinai）发生暴力事件，一名科普特牧师被杀，看来有些组织是诚心滋扰生事。

　　If the army can reimpose order on the streets with little more bloodshed and start meeting its promises to restore democracy, it will also have to set about rescuing the country’s shattered economy as a matter of extreme urgency. On July 9th Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, pleased to see Mr Morsi go, offered up to $12 billion in cash, deposits and oil—more than the amount given to Mr Morsi by Qatar, his chief financier, during his year-long stint⁴¹ in power. Big business has broadly rallied to the new regime.

　　如果军方能在尽量不杀戮的情况下再次迫使民间恢复有序状态，并着手兑现它许下的的承诺——恢复民主，那它也必须像处理头等紧急大事一样，开始拯救埃及支离破碎的经济。穆尔西下台，科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋喜闻乐见。这三个国家于7月9日宣布，将为埃及提供价值120亿美元的现金、存款和石油。穆尔西在位的一年之中，埃及最大的投资国——卡塔尔都没有提供这么多资助。大型企业也普遍表示支持新政权。

　　But the generals, who performed dismally⁴² during their period as caretakers after Mr Mubarak’s fall two-and-a-half years ago, know that millions may come out onto the streets again if they do not move faster and more cleverly than they did before. As street demonstrations⁴³ subside⁴⁴, Egyptians are holding their breath.

　　但军方将领心里清楚，如果不能在之前的基础上加快步伐、更明智地决策，街道上就又会涌现无数抗议民众。两年半前穆巴拉克下台后，他们作为过渡期代理人，表现得就不尽人意。如今，街道已慢慢恢复平静，而埃及人正屏息以待。

1 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

2 overthrew   

overthrow的过去式

参考例句：

• The people finally rose up and overthrew the reactionary regime. 人们终于起来把反动的政权推翻了。
• They overthrew their King. 他们推翻了国王。

3 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

4 oust   

vt.剥夺，取代，驱逐

参考例句：

• The committee wanted to oust him from the union.委员会想把他从工会中驱逐出去。
• The leaders have been ousted from power by nationalists.这些领导人被民族主义者赶下了台。

5 ousted   

驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• He was ousted as chairman. 他的主席职务被革除了。
• He may be ousted by a military takeover. 他可能在一场军事接管中被赶下台。

6 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

7 strife   

n.争吵，冲突，倾轧，竞争

参考例句：

• We do not intend to be drawn into the internal strife.我们不想卷入内乱之中。
• Money is a major cause of strife in many marriages.金钱是造成很多婚姻不和的一个主要原因。

8 loomed   

v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的过去式和过去分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• A dark shape loomed up ahead of us. 一个黑糊糊的影子隐隐出现在我们的前面。
• The prospect of war loomed large in everyone's mind. 战事将起的庞大阴影占据每个人的心。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

10 brotherhood   

n.兄弟般的关系，手中情谊

参考例句：

• They broke up the brotherhood.他们断绝了兄弟关系。
• They live and work together in complete equality and brotherhood.他们完全平等和兄弟般地在一起生活和工作。

11 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

12 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

13 bumpy   

adj.颠簸不平的，崎岖的

参考例句：

• I think we've a bumpy road ahead of us.我觉得我们将要面临一段困难时期。
• The wide paved road degenerated into a narrow bumpy track.铺好的宽阔道路渐渐变窄，成了一条崎岖不平的小径。

14 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

15 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

16 vanquishing   

v.征服( vanquish的现在分词 )；战胜；克服；抑制

参考例句：

• Vanquishing HIV hinges on the development of an effective vaccine or a treatment to cure AIDS. 要彻底消灭爱滋病毒，必须研发出有效的爱滋病疫苗或治疗法。 来自互联网

17 foes   

敌人，仇敌( foe的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They steadily pushed their foes before them. 他们不停地追击敌人。
• She had fought many battles, vanquished many foes. 她身经百战，挫败过很多对手。

18 disciples   

n.信徒( disciple的名词复数 )；门徒；耶稣的信徒；（尤指）耶稣十二门徒之一

参考例句：

• Judas was one of the twelve disciples of Jesus. 犹大是耶稣十二门徒之一。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• "The names of the first two disciples were --" “最初的两个门徒的名字是——” 来自英汉文学 - 汤姆历险

19 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

20 inquiry   

n.打听，询问，调查，查问

参考例句：

• Many parents have been pressing for an inquiry into the problem.许多家长迫切要求调查这个问题。
• The field of inquiry has narrowed down to five persons.调查的范围已经缩小到只剩5个人了。

21 hostility   

n.敌对，敌意；抵制［pl.］交战，战争

参考例句：

• There is open hostility between the two leaders.两位领导人表现出公开的敌意。
• His hostility to your plan is well known.他对你的计划所持的敌意是众所周知的。

22 prosecutor   

n.起诉人；检察官，公诉人

参考例句：

• The defender argued down the prosecutor at the court.辩护人在法庭上驳倒了起诉人。
• The prosecutor would tear your testimony to pieces.检查官会把你的证言驳得体无完肤。

23 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

24 incitement   

激励； 刺激； 煽动； 激励物

参考例句：

• incitement to racial hatred 种族仇恨的挑起
• Interest is an incitement to study. 兴趣刺激学习。

25 cede   

v.割让，放弃

参考例句：

• The debater refused to cede the point to her opponent.辩论者拒绝向她的对手放弃其主张。
• Not because I'm proud.In fact,in front of you I cede all my pride.这不是因为骄傲，事实上我在你面前毫无骄傲可言。

26 prod   

vt.戳，刺；刺激，激励

参考例句：

• The crisis will prod them to act.那个危机将刺激他们行动。
• I shall have to prod him to pay me what he owes.我将不得不催促他把欠我的钱还给我。

27 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

28 amend   

vt.修改，修订，改进；n.[pl.]赔罪，赔偿

参考例句：

• The teacher advised him to amend his way of living.老师劝他改变生活方式。
• You must amend your pronunciation.你必须改正你的发音。

29 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

30 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。

31 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

32 bin   

n.箱柜；vt.放入箱内；[计算机] DOS文件名:二进制目标文件

参考例句：

• He emptied several bags of rice into a bin.他把几袋米倒进大箱里。
• He threw the empty bottles in the bin.他把空瓶子扔进垃圾箱。

33 technocrats   

n.技术专家，专家政治论者( technocrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Few business barons remained. They were replaced by "technocrats," who became the heads of corporations. 企业巨头所剩无几，大多已被“技术专家”所代替，这些人成了公司的领导。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• However, bankers called the technocrats' bluff and proceeded to lend with gusto. 但是，银行家们称技术专家官员不过在虚张声势，并且还会乐观的继续借贷业务。 来自互联网

34 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

35 mosque   

n.清真寺

参考例句：

• The mosque is a activity site and culture center of Muslim religion.清真寺为穆斯林宗教活动场所和文化中心。
• Some years ago the clock in the tower of the mosque got out of order.几年前，清真寺钟楼里的大钟失灵了。

36 salvation   

n.（尤指基督）救世，超度，拯救，解困

参考例句：

• Salvation lay in political reform.解救办法在于政治改革。
• Christians hope and pray for salvation.基督教徒希望并祈祷灵魂得救。

37 sweeping   

adj.范围广大的，一扫无遗的

参考例句：

• The citizens voted for sweeping reforms.公民投票支持全面的改革。
• Can you hear the wind sweeping through the branches?你能听到风掠过树枝的声音吗？

38 nervously   

adv.神情激动地，不安地

参考例句：

• He bit his lip nervously,trying not to cry.他紧张地咬着唇，努力忍着不哭出来。
• He paced nervously up and down on the platform.他在站台上情绪不安地走来走去。

39 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

40 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

41 stint   

v.节省，限制，停止；n.舍不得化，节约，限制；连续不断的一段时间从事某件事

参考例句：

• He lavished money on his children without stint.他在孩子们身上花钱毫不吝惜。
• We hope that you will not stint your criticism.我们希望您不吝指教。

42 dismally   

adv.阴暗地，沉闷地

参考例句：

• Fei Little Beard assented dismally. 费小胡子哭丧着脸回答。 来自子夜部分
• He began to howl dismally. 它就凄凉地吠叫起来。 来自辞典例句

43 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

44 subside   

vi.平静，平息；下沉，塌陷，沉降

参考例句：

• The emotional reaction which results from a serious accident takes time to subside.严重事故所引起的情绪化的反应需要时间来平息。
• The controversies surrounding population growth are unlikely to subside soon.围绕着人口增长问题的争论看来不会很快平息。