2023年经济学人 战争对欧洲经济的影响(2)

 

 

    The question now is how long they will keep spending.

    现在的问题是，他们继续消费的情况还会持续多久。

    Households began to tighten¹ their purse strings² in the fourth quarter of 2022.

    家庭在2022年第四季度开始收紧钱包。

    In Austria and Spain, for which detailed³ GDP figures are available, consumption dragged down quarterly growth by a percentage point.

    在可获得详细GDP数据的奥地利和西班牙，消费将季度增长拉低了一个百分点。

    Retail⁴ trade in the euro zone fell by 2.7% in December, compared with the month before.

    欧元区12月零售贸易较前月下滑2.7%。

    State handouts⁵ and price caps will be withdrawn⁶ this year.

    国家救济和价格上限今年将会取消。

    Consumption could become a problem.

    消费可能会成为一个问题。

    Meanwhile, inflation is proving stubborn.

    与此同时，通胀被证明是顽固的。

    “In the EU we have 27 different ways in which wholesale⁷ energy prices are passed on to consumers, which is a nightmare to forecast,” sighs a commission official.

    “在欧盟，我们有27种不同的方式可以大规模地将能源价格转嫁给消费者，这将是一场噩梦。”一位欧盟委员会官员叹息道。

    Some price pressure may still be on the way—as looks to be the case in Germany, where energy prices in January rose by 8.3% from December.

    一些价格压力可能还未到来——德国的情况看起来就是如此，该国1月份的能源价格比去年12月上涨了8.3%。

    Even if wholesale prices stabilise at current lower levels, household prices may prove erratic⁸.

    即使批发价格稳定在当前较低的水平，家庭消费价格可能也会反复无常。

    Europe’s strong jobs market could add to inflation.

    欧洲强劲的就业市场可能会加剧通胀。

    High prices and labour shortages, which are likely to worsen as oldies retire and fewer youngsters enter the workforce⁹, are pushing up pay demands.

    高物价和劳动力短缺推高了工资要求，随着老年人退休和进入工作岗位的年轻人减少，劳动力短缺的情况可能会更严重。

    In the Netherlands wages jumped by 4.8% in January, compared with a year earlier, after increasing by just 3.3% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2021.

    在荷兰，工资在2022年和2021年分别仅增长3.3%和2.1%，今年1月份与去年同期相比，工资猛涨了4.8%。

    Germany’s public-sector unions are threatening more strikes.

    德国的公共部门工会威胁要举行更多罢工。

    They want a whopping 10.5% raise, which could set the tone for comrades elsewhere.

    他们想要高达10.5%的加薪，这可能会为其他地方的公务员们定下基调。

    Data from Indeed, a hiring website, show that wages in the euro zone tend to follow underlying¹⁰, or “core”, inflation.

    招聘网站Indeed的数据显示，欧元区的薪资倾向于跟随潜在或“核心”通胀而变。

    This shows no sign of softening¹¹.

    这方面并没有显示出增长势头减轻的迹象。

    The consumer-price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 7% in the year to January.

    不包括食品和能源的消费者价格指数，今年1月份上涨了7%。

    Services, in particular, face steeply rising costs, according to the PMI survey, which may lead to further price increases.

    采购经理指数调查显示，服务业尤其面临成本急剧上升的问题，这可能会导致物价进一步上涨。

    This leaves the European Central Bank with little choice but to keep interest rates high.

    这让欧洲央行别无选择，只能维持高利率。

    Markets expect them to rise from 2.5% to 3.7% in the summer.

    市场预计到夏季，利率将从2.5%升至3.7%。

    Funding for firms and households is thus set to get more expensive, hitting investment.

    因此，为企业和家庭融资将变得更加昂贵，从而让投资受到打击。

    Credit standards are already tightening¹², according to the bank’s lending survey.

    根据欧洲央行的贷款调查，信贷标准已经在收紧。

    And most of the impact of monetary¹³ tightening, Mr Eisenschmidt argues, is yet to be felt.

    艾森施密特认为，货币紧缩的大部分影响尚未显现。

    The euro zone may have escaped recession so far, but its prospects—stubborn core inflation, high interest rates and a weak economy—are hardly pleasant.

    到目前为止，欧元区可能躲过了衰退，但它的经济前景——顽固的核心通胀、高利率和疲软的经济——并不令人愉快。

    The IMF predicts 0.7% growth in 2023; the commission forecasts 0.9%.

    国际货币基金组织预测2023年欧洲增长率为0.7%，欧盟委员会的预测是0.9%。

    Even this might be optimistic.

    即便是这种预测也可以说是乐观的。

    America faces equally stubborn inflation, and China’s reopening has not provided much of a boost to the bloc¹⁴.

    美国面临着同样顽固的通胀，而中国重新放开也未给欧盟带来多少推动力。

    Welcome to the grim new normal.

    欢迎来到暗淡新常态。

1 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

2 strings   

n.弦

参考例句：

• He sat on the bed,idly plucking the strings of his guitar.他坐在床上，随意地拨着吉他的弦。
• She swept her fingers over the strings of the harp.她用手指划过竖琴的琴弦。

3 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

4 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

5 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

6 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。

7 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

8 erratic   

adj.古怪的，反复无常的，不稳定的

参考例句：

• The old man had always been cranky and erratic.那老头儿性情古怪,反复无常。
• The erratic fluctuation of market prices is in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。

9 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

10 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

11 softening   

变软，软化

参考例句：

• Her eyes, softening, caressed his face. 她的眼光变得很温柔了。它们不住地爱抚他的脸。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）
• He might think my brain was softening or something of the kind. 他也许会觉得我婆婆妈妈的，已经成了个软心肠的人了。

12 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

13 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

14 bloc   

n.集团；联盟

参考例句：

• A solid bloc of union members support the decision.工会会员团结起来支持该决定。
• There have been growing tensions within the trading bloc.贸易同盟国的关系越来越紧张。