2023年经济学人 硅谷银行倒闭标志金融市场进入新阶段(2)

 

 

    That does not mean investors¹ have given up fighting the Fed.

    这并不意味着投资者已经放弃了与美联储的对抗。

    They are still betting it will soon start cutting rates, even though officials have given no such indication.

    投资者仍在赌美联储将很快开始降息，尽管官员们并没有做出这种表示。

    The battleground has nevertheless shifted.

    然而，战场已经发生了变化。

    Earlier this year, expectations of rate cuts sprang from hopes inflation would fall faster than the Fed expected.

    今年早些时候，对降息的预期源于人们希望通胀将以快于美联储预期的速度下降。

    Now they reflect fear.

    现在，降息的预期则反映了恐惧。

    On March 13th the two-year Treasury² yield fell by 0.61 percentage points, the biggest one-day drop in more than 40 years.

    3月13日，两年期美国国债收益率下跌0.61个百分点，创下40多年来的最大单日跌幅。

    Panicked trading on March 15th prompted worries of the market seizing up.

    3月15日恐慌之下的交易引发了人们对市场失灵的担忧。

    Given that some banks have failed, investors are betting that the Fed will cut rates not because the inflation monster is tamed, but in order to avoid breaking anything else.

    鉴于一些银行已经倒闭，投资者打赌美联储将会降息，不是因为通胀怪兽被驯服，而是为了避免造成其他崩溃。

    Taken in conjunction with the reaction in other markets, this suggests a degree of cognitive³ dissonance.

    结合其他市场的反应，这表明存在一定程度的认知偏差。

    Broader stockmarket indices fell, but not precipitously.

    更广泛的股市指数下降，但并非陡然下跌。

    The S&P 500 index of large American firms is level with its position at the start of the year.

    美国大型企业的标准普尔500指数与年初持平。

    The dollar, which tends to strengthen in crises as investors flock to safety, weakened a little.

    美元在危机中往往会走强，因为投资者会蜂拥至避险资产，但美元反而略有走弱。

    On the one hand, investors think the Fed should fear bank failures enough to start cutting rates.

    一方面，投资者认为美联储应该担心银行倒闭，这种担忧足以让美联储开始降息。

    On the other, they do not themselves fear the fallout of such a failure enough to reflect it in prices.

    另一方面，他们自己对这种倒闭的后果的担忧，又不足以在价格中有所反应。

    Lying behind this contradiction is supposed tension between the Fed’s inflation target and its duty to protect financial stability.

    这种矛盾背后是一种紧张关系，即美联储的通胀目标与保护金融稳定的职责之间的紧张关系。

    The failure of SVB, which was rooted in losses from fixed-rate bonds (the value of which fell as rates rose), looks like evidence for this.

    硅谷银行破产，其根源在于固定利率债券产生的损失(其价值随着利率上升而下降)，这看起来就是这种紧张关系的证据。

    Since even the fight against inflation pales in importance next to the stability of the banking⁴ system, goes the argument, the Fed cannot afford to raise rates any higher.

    他们认为，由于与银行体系的稳定相比，即使是对抗通胀的重要性也退居其次，因此美联储承担不起继续加息的代价。

    This lowers the risk of recession, gives a boost to stocks and reduces the need for haven⁵ assets like the dollar.

    这降低了经济衰退的风险，提振了股市，并减少了对美元等避险资产的需求。

    Do not be so sure.

    先别这么肯定。

    Following SVB’s collapse⁶, the Fed has promised to backstop other banks.

    硅谷银行倒闭后，美联储已承诺增援其他银行。

    Its support--lending against securities worth as little as two-thirds of the loan value--should prevent any remotely solvent⁷ institution from going under wherever interest rates end up.

    美联储的支持--以价值仅为贷款价值三分之二的证券为抵押，给银行提供贷款--应该会防止任何偿付能力极低的机构倒闭，无论利率的最终水平如何。

    Alongside this generosity⁸ lies an uncomfortable truth.

    与这种慷慨并存的是一个令人不安的事实。

    To squeeze inflation out of the economy, the Fed needs to make lenders nervous, loans expensive and businesses risk-averse.

    为了将通胀挤出经济，美联储需要让借贷机构感到紧张、让贷款变得昂贵、让企业规避风险。

    Allowing reckless banks such as SVB to fail is not a tragic⁹ accident.

    允许硅谷银行这样鲁莽的银行倒闭并不是一起悲惨事故。

    It is part of the Fed’s job.

    这是美联储的部分职责所在。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

3 cognitive   

adj.认知的，认识的，有感知的

参考例句：

• As children grow older,their cognitive processes become sharper.孩子们越长越大，他们的认知过程变得更为敏锐。
• The cognitive psychologist is like the tinker who wants to know how a clock works.认知心理学者倒很像一个需要通晓钟表如何运转的钟表修理匠。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 haven   

n.安全的地方，避难所，庇护所

参考例句：

• It's a real haven at the end of a busy working day.忙碌了一整天后，这真是一个安乐窝。
• The school library is a little haven of peace and quiet.学校的图书馆是一个和平且安静的小避风港。

6 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

7 solvent   

n.溶剂；adj.有偿付能力的

参考例句：

• Gasoline is a solvent liquid which removes grease spots.汽油是一种能去掉油污的有溶解力的液体。
• A bankrupt company is not solvent.一个破产的公司是没有偿还债务的能力的。

8 generosity   

n.大度，慷慨，慷慨的行为

参考例句：

• We should match their generosity with our own.我们应该像他们一样慷慨大方。
• We adore them for their generosity.我们钦佩他们的慷慨。

9 tragic   

adj.悲剧的，悲剧性的，悲惨的

参考例句：

• The effect of the pollution on the beaches is absolutely tragic.污染海滩后果可悲。
• Charles was a man doomed to tragic issues.查理是个注定不得善终的人。