2023年经济学人 诺亚方舟经济学(1)

 

 

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    Noah’s Ark, round two

    诺亚方舟，第二回

    What if the boat builder was an economist¹?

    如果诺亚是经济学家，情况会怎样呢？

    Some biblical lessons for today's conservationists.

    为如今的自然保护人士提供一些《圣经》里的经验。

    “Of fowls² after their kind,” the Lord said to Noah, “and of cattle after their kind, of every creeping thing of the Earth after his kind, two of every sort shall come unto thee.”

    “飞鸟各从其类，”耶和华对诺亚说，“牲畜各从其类，所有走兽各从其类，每样一对，都要到你那里去。”

    Co-operation from the animal kingdom helped make the biblical patriarch history’s greatest conservationist, saving every land-based animal, including humans, from a wave of divine extinction⁴.

    动物王国的互相合作造就了《圣经》族长历史中这位最伟大的自然保护者，他拯救了包括人类在内的每一种陆地动物，使其免于洪水天谴。

    Unlike Noah, contemporary conservationists face constraints⁵: they cannot save everything.

    与诺亚不同，当代自然保护者面临限制：他们不可能拯救一切。

    The patriarch was able to fit a breeding pair of each of the 5.6m or so terrestrial species onto his 300 cubits-long ark.

    诺亚这位族长能够将大约560万种陆生物种中的每一对都放入他那长约300腕尺的方舟中。

    If he was forced instead to ration³ his space, facing the traditional economic problem of scarce resources and unlimited⁶ wants, which animals should Noah have prioritised and kept safe from the flood for future generations?

    如果他必须限定空间，必须面对稀缺资源和无限需求这种传统经济学问题，那么诺亚应该优先考虑哪些动物，并为了后代而保护它们免受洪水侵袭呢？

    This was the dilemma⁷ Martin Weitzman, an economist, posed in a paper published in 1998, and it is one that carries enduring lessons.

    这就是经济学家马丁·魏茨曼在1998年发表的一篇论文中提出的两难问题，这一问题蕴含着经久不衰的道理。

    Weitzman’s goal, beyond biblical interpretation⁸, was to create an economic theory of conservation, calculating a strategy that a rational conservationist could follow to maximise both human welfare and natural biodiversity.

    魏茨曼的目标超越了对圣经的解释，是创建一种适用于自然保护的经济学理论，计算出一种理性的自然保护者可以遵循的策略，以最大化人类福利和自然生物多样性。

    He wanted to come up with a way of ranking conservation projects; how to weigh what the Lord called creeping things of the Earth against one another given the limited amount of funding to keep them all alive.

    他希望想出一种对自然保护项目进行排序的方法，在资金有限的情况下，如何将上帝所说的所有走兽中的每一种进行权衡。

    Animals have two sources of value in Weitzman’s model.

    在魏茨曼的模型中，动物有两种价值。

    The first is the utility they provide humanity: economists⁹ now call this “ecosystem services”.

    首先是它们为人类提供的效用：经济学家现在将其称为“生态系统服务”。

    They vary from the delight that megafauna provide those visiting a safari¹⁰ park to the more prosaic¹¹: pollinators fertilising crops; earthworms keeping the soil healthy.

    包括大型动物为参观野生动物园的游客带来的愉悦，也包括一些更平淡的用处：传粉昆虫给农作物授粉，蚯蚓保持土壤健康。

    A forthcoming paper by Eyal Frank of the University of Chicago and Anant Sudarshan of the University of Warwick looks at the economic benefits of “keystone species”.

    芝加哥大学的埃亚尔·弗兰克和华威大学的阿南特·苏达尚即将发表的一篇论文探讨了“关键物种”的经济效益。

    They find that the accidental poisoning of vultures in India led to a dramatic increase in human mortality, with more than 100,000 additional deaths in an average year, as the birds no longer devoured¹² waterway-poisoning carrion¹³.

    他们发现，印度秃鹫的意外中毒导致了人类死亡率的急剧上升，平均每年的死亡人数增加了10万以上，因为秃鹫不再吃掉污染水道的腐肉。

    Despite their poor reputation, vultures might therefore earn a place on a resource-constrained ark.

    尽管秃鹫名声不佳，但它们可能因此在资源有限的方舟上赢得一席之地。

    The second part of the calculation places a direct value on biodiversity.

    模型的第二部分是生物多样性方面的直接价值。

    Imagine, now, that you are not Noah trying to save the natural world from a flood, but a scholar trying to save texts from the Library of Alexandria.

    现在想象一下，你不是试图从洪水中拯救自然世界的诺亚，而是一个试图救出亚历山大图书馆中的文献的学者。

    All the scrolls¹⁴ might be valuable, but many have information on them that is in other libraries.

    所有卷轴可能都很有价值，但许多卷轴上的信息其他图书馆中也有。

    The aim would be to save those with information not recorded elsewhere.

    那么目标应该是救出那些所含信息在其他地方没有记录的卷轴。

    Weitzman applies the same logic¹⁵ to animals: biodiversity has both an aesthetic¹⁶ value and an informational one, with content embedded¹⁷ in the genetics of animals.

    魏茨曼将同样的逻辑应用于动物：生物多样性既具有美学价值，也具有信息价值，其信息内容深嵌于动物的遗传物质中。

    The selection for the ark should try to preserve as much of this information as possible, even if the animals themselves do not do much for human welfare.

    方舟应该尽可能多地保存这些信息，即使动物本身对人类福利没有太大贡献。

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 fowls   

鸟( fowl的名词复数 )； 禽肉； 既不是这； 非驴非马

参考例句：

• A great number of water fowls dwell on the island. 许多水鸟在岛上栖息。
• We keep a few fowls and some goats. 我们养了几只鸡和一些山羊。

3 ration   

n.定量(pl.)给养，口粮；vt.定量供应

参考例句：

• The country cut the bread ration last year.那个国家去年削减面包配给量。
• We have to ration the water.我们必须限量用水。

4 extinction   

n.熄灭，消亡，消灭，灭绝，绝种

参考例句：

• The plant is now in danger of extinction.这种植物现在有绝种的危险。
• The island's way of life is doomed to extinction.这个岛上的生活方式注定要消失。

5 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

6 unlimited   

adj.无限的，不受控制的，无条件的

参考例句：

• They flew over the unlimited reaches of the Arctic.他们飞过了茫茫无边的北极上空。
• There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris.在技术方面自以为是会很危险。

7 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

8 interpretation   

n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理

参考例句：

• His statement admits of one interpretation only.他的话只有一种解释。
• Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing.分析与说明是个很主观的事情。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 safari   

n.远征旅行(探险、考察)；探险队，狩猎队

参考例句：

• When we go on safari we like to cook on an open fire.我们远行狩猎时，喜欢露天生火做饭。
• They went on safari searching for the rare black rhinoceros.他们进行探险旅行，搜寻那稀有的黑犀牛。

11 prosaic   

adj.单调的，无趣的

参考例句：

• The truth is more prosaic.真相更加乏味。
• It was a prosaic description of the scene.这是对场景没有想象力的一个描述。

12 devoured   

吞没( devour的过去式和过去分词 )； 耗尽； 津津有味地看； 狼吞虎咽地吃光

参考例句：

• She devoured everything she could lay her hands on: books, magazines and newspapers. 无论是书、杂志，还是报纸，只要能弄得到，她都看得津津有味。
• The lions devoured a zebra in a short time. 狮子一会儿就吃掉了一匹斑马。

13 carrion   

n.腐肉

参考例句：

• A crow of bloodthirsty ants is attracted by the carrion.一群嗜血的蚂蚁被腐肉所吸引。
• Vultures usually feed on carrion or roadkill.兀鹫通常以腐肉和公路上的死伤动物为食。

14 scrolls   

n.（常用于录写正式文件的）纸卷( scroll的名词复数 )；卷轴；涡卷形（装饰）；卷形花纹v.（电脑屏幕上）从上到下移动（资料等），卷页( scroll的第三人称单数 )；（似卷轴般）卷起；（像展开卷轴般地）将文字显示于屏幕

参考例句：

• Either turn it off or only pick up selected stuff like wands, rings and scrolls. 把他关掉然后只捡你需要的物品，像是魔杖(wand)，戒指(rings)和滚动条(scrolls)。 来自互联网
• Ancient scrolls were found in caves by the Dead Sea. 死海旁边的山洞里发现了古代的卷轴。 来自辞典例句

15 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

16 aesthetic   

adj.美学的，审美的，有美感

参考例句：

• My aesthetic standards are quite different from his.我的审美标准与他的大不相同。
• The professor advanced a new aesthetic theory.那位教授提出了新的美学理论。

17 embedded   

a.扎牢的

参考例句：

• an operation to remove glass that was embedded in his leg 取出扎入他腿部玻璃的手术
• He has embedded his name in the minds of millions of people. 他的名字铭刻在数百万人民心中。