2023年经济学人 钻石值得投资吗?

 

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    All that sparkles

    钻石钻石亮晶晶

    Diomands are forever; their allure¹ to investors³ might not be.

    钻石恒久远，但其投资价值可能并非如此。

    The appeal of a diamond, for a ring on a finger or to string on a necklace, rests on its sparkle.

    对于手指上的戒指，或脖子上的项链，钻石的魅力在于它的耀眼光彩。

    Its precise value is determined⁴ by how well the stone is cut, its colour, its size (also called its “carat”) and whether it contains flaws.

    钻石的确切价值取决于切割工艺、颜色、大小(也称为“克拉”)以及是否有瑕疵。

    The clearer, heavier, closer to colourless and more perfectly⁵ cut the rock, the better.

    钻石颜色越清透、越重、越接近无色、切割得越完美，价值就越高。

    The appeal of a diamond for an investor² is that, in addition to being nice to look at, it has historically offered a steady return on investment.

    对于投资者，钻石的吸引力在于，除了看起来赏心悦目，钻石一直以来还提供了稳定的投资回报。

    Given the opacity⁶ of the market, and the broad variety of gems⁷ that are available, long-run price data are scarce.

    由于市场不透明，以及市面上的钻石种类繁多，长期价格数据很稀缺。

    But a paper by Luc Renneboog of Tilburg University, which was published in 2015, analysed thousands of auctions⁸ each year, finding that the average return between 1999 and 2012 rivalled those of stocks and property.

    但蒂尔堡大学的吕克·伦尼博格于2015年发表的一篇论文分析了每年数千次的拍卖，发现1999年至2012年的钻石平均回报率与股票和房地产的回报率不相上下。

    Holders⁹ of diamonds would have earned a handsome 8% or so a year.

    钻石持有者一年的利润率可以达到可观的8%左右。

    Recently, though, these steady returns have given way to enormous volatility¹⁰.

    然而，最近这些稳定的回报已经让位于巨大的波动。

    De Beers, a consortium that has long monopolised the supply of diamonds, has reduced the price of two-to-four carat uncut stones—a popular category because they can be made into one-to-two carat engagement rings—by 40%, according to Bloomberg, a news service.

    据彭博社报道，长期垄断钻石供应的戴比尔斯财团已经将2至4克拉的未切割钻石（一种很受欢迎的钻石，因为这种钻石可以制成1至2克拉的订婚戒指）降价40%。

    On September 13th the company announced that it would re-run its iconic “a diamond is forever” advertising¹¹ campaign in an attempt to boost demand.

    9月13日，该公司宣布将重新启动其标志性的广告“钻石恒久远，一颗永流传”来刺激需求。

    Stable returns in the past were partly brought about by steady demand.

    过去，钻石的稳定回报在一定程度上是由稳定的需求带来的。

    Just as with the investment case for gold, another rare and precious commodity, the logic¹² for holding diamonds tends to be strongest during periods of economic uncertainty¹³.

    就像投资黄金（另一种稀有且珍贵的商品）一样，在经济不确定时期，持有钻石的理由往往最强。

    At the same time, the main use of diamonds is in jewellery, which means that prices have tended to do well during periods of prosperity, too.

    与此同时，钻石的主要用途是珠宝，这意味着在经济繁荣时期，钻石的价格往往也会更高。

    But the most important factor was monopolistic supply.

    但最重要的因素是垄断性的供应。

    For more than a century De Beers managed to dominate the production of gems.

    一个多世纪以来，戴比尔斯一直主宰着钻石的生产。

    This market structure facilitated steady price increases in two ways, as Mr Renneboog has noted¹⁴.

    正如伦尼博格指出的，这种市场结构在两个方面促进了钻石价格的稳步上涨。

    First, by stockpiling supplies De Beers created scarcity¹⁵.

    首先，通过囤货，戴比尔斯制造了稀缺性。

    Second, the firm curbed¹⁶ speculation¹⁷, and the volatility it brings.

    其次，该公司遏制了投机行为及其带来的波动性。

    Although De Beers controlled some 80% of the global supply of diamonds in the 1980s, since then its share has been eaten into by competitors, which include Alrosa, a Russian rival.

    虽然戴比尔斯在20世纪80年代控制了全球约80%的钻石供应，但从那之后，这一份额就被竞争对手蚕食了，其中包括来自俄罗斯的竞争对手阿尔罗萨。

    The company now produces just a third of supply.

    戴比尔斯现在的产量仅占供应量的三分之一。

    Another problem is emerging from laboratories.

    另一个问题出现在实验室。

    They are producing artificial gems, which are made by applying pressure to carbon, rather than digging stones from the ground, and are identical to the naked eye.

    实验室正在生产人造钻石，通过对碳施加压力而不是从地下挖掘来制造钻石，而且肉眼无法区分人造钻石和天然钻石。

    Such stones have been available since the 1980s, but even as recently as 2018 made up a tiny fraction of the market, at just a few percentage points.

    人造钻石在20世纪80年代就可以买到了，但直到2018年，这类钻石在市场中所占的比例也很小，只有几个百分点。

    In the years since, more lab-grown jewels have entered the market—and their market share has risen to around a tenth.

    此后的几年里，更多的人造宝石进入了市场，它们的市场份额上升到了大约十分之一。

    De Beers may have inadvertently hastened this transition.

    戴比尔斯可能无意中加速了这一转变。

    The company began to sell lab-grown diamonds at rock-bottom prices in 2018, when such stones fetched about 80% of the price of mined ones.

    该公司在2018年开始以最低价出售人造钻石，当时这类钻石的价格约为天然钻石价格的80%。

    The goal was to differentiate¹⁸ between the two types of gems, in order to diminish the appeal of lab-grown stones.

    这一举动的目的是区分这两种类型的钻石，以降低人造钻石的吸引力。

    The Clear Cut, a New York-based purveyor¹⁹ of engagement rings, has adopted guerrilla marketing²⁰ tactics to make the same point.

    总部位于纽约的订婚戒指供应商Clear Cut采取了游击营销策略来表达同样的观点。

    It offers customers who buy a ring worth $10,000 or more a free lab-grown alternative, which can be used as a “travel ring” when visiting dubious²² places.

    这家公司为购买价值1万美元及以上戒指的顾客免费赠送一个人造钻石替代品，当要去不太安全的地方时，可以把替代品用作“旅行戒指”。

    Many lab-grown stones now fetch just 20-30% of the price of similar mined stones.

    现在许多人造钻石的价格只有天然钻石的20%-30%。

    De Beers argues that, as the supply of lab-grown gems accelerates, the price gap between the two types of stone will continue to widen, making the newcomers unappealing for engagements.

    戴比尔斯认为，随着人造钻石的供应加速，这两种钻石之间的价格差距将继续扩大，让新出现的人造钻石对订婚者失去吸引力。

    If recent price movements are anything to go by, though, the tactic²¹ appears likely to backfire—after all, mined prices are plunging²³ in the wake of lab-grown ones.

    然而，根据最近的价格走势看，这一策略可能适得其反，毕竟出现了人造钻石之后，天然钻石的价格正在暴跌。

    Admittedly, this may not be entirely²⁴ the result of a structural²⁵ shift in the market.

    诚然，这可能并不完全是市场结构性转变的结果。

    American couples date for about three years before getting engaged, and thanks to covid-19 very few people were out and about meeting potential husbands or wives in 2020.

    美国情侣大约交往三年后才会订婚，又因为新冠肺炎，2020年很少有人会外出，与自己可能的未来丈夫或妻子相遇。

    An unusually small number of people are probably getting engaged this year.

    因此今年订婚的人可能会异常少。

    But this is the sort of fluctuation²⁶ an all-powerful diamond cartel would have been able to smooth out by reducing supply.

    但对于这种波动，这个一手遮天的钻石卡特尔可以通过减少供应来将其抚平。

    Slashing²⁷ prices instead is a clear indication of diminished market power.

    大幅降价反而是市场力量减弱的明显迹象。

    That is good news for those looking to pop the question or acquire a new trinket.

    对于那些想求婚或购买新饰品的人来说，这是个好消息。

    It is rather less appealing for those considering investing in the gems.

    对于那些考虑投资钻石的人来说，钻石反而变得没那么有吸引力了。

1 allure   

n.诱惑力，魅力；vt.诱惑，引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• The window displays allure customers to buy goods.橱窗陈列品吸引顾客购买货物。
• The book has a certain allure for which it is hard to find a reason.这本书有一种难以解释的魅力。

2 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

3 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

4 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

5 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。

6 opacity   

n.不透明；难懂

参考例句：

• He insisted that the mineral content of the water determined the opacity.他坚持认为水的清澈程度取决于其中矿物质的含量。
• Opacity of the eye lens can be induced by deficiency of certain vitamins.眼球晶状体的混浊可由缺乏某些维生素造成。

7 gems   

growth； economy； management； and customer satisfaction 增长

参考例句：

• a crown studded with gems 镶有宝石的皇冠
• The apt citations and poetic gems have adorned his speeches. 贴切的引语和珠玑般的诗句为他的演说词增添文采。

8 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

9 holders   

支持物( holder的名词复数 )； 持有者； （支票等）持有人； 支托（或握持）…之物

参考例句：

• Slaves were mercilessly ground down by slave holders. 奴隶受奴隶主的残酷压迫。
• It is recognition of compassion's part that leads the up-holders of capital punishment to accuse the abolitionists of sentimentality in being more sorry for the murderer than for his victim. 正是对怜悯的作用有了认识，才使得死刑的提倡者指控主张废除死刑的人感情用事，同情谋杀犯胜过同情受害者。

10 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

11 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

12 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

13 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

14 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

15 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

16 curbed   

v.限制，克制，抑制( curb的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Advertising aimed at children should be curbed. 针对儿童的广告应受到限制。 来自辞典例句
• Inflation needs to be curbed in Russia. 俄罗斯需要抑制通货膨胀。 来自辞典例句

17 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

18 differentiate   

vi.(between)区分；vt.区别；使不同

参考例句：

• You can differentiate between the houses by the shape of their chimneys.你可以凭借烟囱形状的不同来区分这两幢房子。
• He never learned to differentiate between good and evil.他从未学会分辨善恶。

19 purveyor   

n.承办商，伙食承办商

参考例句：

• Silence, purveyor of gossip, do not spread that report. 快别那样说，新闻记者阁下，别散布那个消息。 来自互联网
• Teaching purpose: To comprehensively understand the role function and consciousness composition of a news purveyor. 教学目的：全面深入的理解新闻传播者的角色功能和意识构成。 来自互联网

20 marketing   

n.行销，在市场的买卖，买东西

参考例句：

• They are developing marketing network.他们正在发展销售网络。
• He often goes marketing.他经常去市场做生意。

21 tactic   

n.战略，策略；adj.战术的，有策略的

参考例句：

• Reducing prices is a common sales tactic.降价是常用的销售策略。
• She had often used the tactic of threatening to resign.她惯用以辞职相威胁的手法。

22 dubious   

adj.怀疑的，无把握的；有问题的，靠不住的

参考例句：

• What he said yesterday was dubious.他昨天说的话很含糊。
• He uses some dubious shifts to get money.他用一些可疑的手段去赚钱。

23 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

25 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

26 fluctuation   

n.(物价的)波动，涨落；周期性变动；脉动

参考例句：

• The erratic fluctuation of market prices are in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。
• Early and adequate drainage is essential if fluctuation occurs.有波动感时，应及早地充分引流。

27 slashing   

adj.尖锐的；苛刻的；鲜明的；乱砍的v.挥砍( slash的现在分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Slashing is the first process in which liquid treatment is involved. 浆纱是液处理的第一过程。 来自辞典例句
• He stopped slashing his horse. 他住了手，不去鞭打他的马了。 来自辞典例句