2023年经济学人 学生贷款在拖累美国经济

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Tuition drag

    学费的拖累

    The resumption of student-loan payments will hit American growth.

    恢复偿还学生贷款将打击美国的经济增长。

    People are mostly pleased by the return of normal life after covid-19.

    新冠肺炎过后，大多数人都很高兴恢复了正常生活。

    In America, though, borrowers of student loans will miss one aspect of the pandemic.

    然而，在美国，借了助学贷款的人会想念疫情的一个方面。

    Sitting on $1.6trn of debt owed to the government, they have enjoyed a break from both repayments² and interest since March 2020.

    他们背负着欠政府的1.6万亿美元债务，自2020年3月以来享受了暂停偿还和支付利息的优惠。

    The holiday is now over.

    现在假期结束了。

    Interest on student loans started to accrue³ again this month; repayments will resume in October.

    从本月开始助学贷款的利息再次增加，10月份将恢复偿还贷款。

    Given that there are about 43m borrowers, this will drag on the American economy.

    鉴于借款人数约有4300万，偿还贷款将拖累美国经济。

    Exactly how big the drag will be is a matter of debate.

    至于到底会有多大的影响，还有待争论。

    In 2017 the Federal Reserve calculated that the average monthly payment on student debt was $393; other estimates put it closer to $250.

    2017年，美联储计算出学生贷款的月平均还款额为393美元，其他机构的估计是接近250美元。

    Cash has already started flooding into the Treasury⁴ as some rush to pay off their debts.

    随着一些人争先恐后地还债，现金已经开始涌入财政部。

    Multiplied by all borrowers, the higher average would add up to a total monthly repayment¹ of $17bn, or about 1% of household consumption.

    将较高的平均还款额乘以借款总人数，每月偿还总额为170亿美元，约占家庭消费的1%。

    Assuming that only part of the repayments comes from savings⁵, that would imply a cut to America’s quarterly annualised growth rate of 0.7 percentage points—or a third of its annualised pace in the first half of this year.

    假设只有部分还款来自储蓄，这意味着美国季度年化增长率将下降0.7个百分点，即今年上半年年化增长率下调三分之一。

    Yet such a drag should be viewed as an upper bound.

    然而，这种程度的拖累应该是最大值。

    Students in university need not repay loans, reducing the number of borrowers facing an imminent⁶ crunch⁷.

    大学生不需要偿还贷款，这就减少了迫切需要还款的借款人数。

    Other deferrals are also available—such as for those in the armed forces.

    还有其他的延期情况：比如那些在军队的人。

    In 2019 the Fed calculated that three in ten borrowers did not need to make monthly payments.

    2019年，美联储计算出，十分之三的借款人不需要每月还款。

    Moreover, the Biden administration has introduced a new repayment plan that expands a previously⁸ existing programme for reducing the debt burden on poor Americans.

    此外，拜登政府推出了一项新的还款计划，扩大了之前为减轻美国穷人债务负担而实施的计划。

    Borrowers making $32,800 a year or less will be exempted⁹ from payments.

    年收入在3.28万美元或以下的借款人将被免除还款。

    Totted up, analysts¹⁰ at Capital Economics, a consultancy, reckon that the bill to households will work out at $6bn or so a month—closer to shaving off about 0.3 percentage points from America’s growth.

    总体而言，咨询公司凯投宏观的分析师估计，家庭每月还款总额将达到60亿美元左右，接近于将美国经济增长率拉低约0.3个百分点。

    Even this drag will be felt when coupled with other looming¹¹ hits to consumers.

    当与消费者即将面临的其他打击相结合时，即使是这种程度的拖累也会让消费者有所感觉。

    At long last Americans are running down savings from the pandemic.

    最终，美国人将逐渐耗尽疫情期间的储蓄。

    The federal government may be on the brink¹² of a temporary shutdown because of political gridlock.

    由于政治僵局，联邦政府可能处于暂时停摆的边缘。

    And high interest rates are heaping pressure on borrowers: the delinquency rate on credit cards has reached its highest in a decade.

    高利率正在给借款人带来巨大压力：信用卡的违约率已经达到了十年来的最高水平。

    For now, America is on track for a robust¹³ third quarter, with some indicators¹⁴ even pointing to annualised growth of above 5%.

    就目前而言，美国第三季度有望实现强劲增长，一些指标甚至显示年化增长率超过5%。

    But the resumption of student-loan payments, combined with the other headwinds, may make for a weaker fourth quarter.

    但学生贷款恢复偿还，再加上其他不利因素，可能会导致第四季度表现疲软。

    The median forecast of economists¹⁵ is just 0.6% annualised growth, according to Blue Chip, a survey of estimates.

    根据预估调查机构蓝筹的数据，经济学家预估的年化增长率中值仅为0.6%。

    By next year, student-loan payments will drop out of growth calculations, because monthly bills will be part of the baseline.

    到明年，学生贷款支付将从增长计算中剔除，因为每月的还款将成为基数的一部分。

    Yet for folk struggling to make payments, the holiday will be difficult to forget.

    然而，对于艰难还款的人们来说，这个假期将是令人难忘的。

    According to Dan Collier of the University of Memphis, who studies the impact of student debt, many borrowers saved money to buy a first home or decided¹⁶ that they could afford to have more children.

    孟菲斯大学的丹·科利尔研究学生债务的影响，他认为许多借款人存了钱准备买第一套房子，或者决定自己有能力生更多孩子。

    Although some still cling to hope that the Biden administration may revive a plan to forgive up to $20,000 per borrower after it was blocked by the Supreme¹⁷ Court in June, the political and legal obstacles are formidable.

    拜登政府计划对每位借款人免除最高2万美元的债务，这一计划在6月被最高法院阻止，一些人仍然对重启计划抱有希望，但该计划面临的政治和法律障碍是巨大的。

    The more likely scenario¹⁸ is that student-debt payments will proceed much as they did before the pandemic: month after month, for years, until graduates have paid down their tuition costs.

    更有可能的情况是，学生债务的偿还将像疫情前一样：一个月接一个月地还款，持续数年，直到毕业生支付完所有学费。

    Normal life is such a drag.

    正常生活就是如此令人讨厌。（注：此处为双关，drag可以指“拖累”或“令人厌烦的事”。）

1 repayment   

n.偿还，偿还款；报酬

参考例句：

• I am entitled to a repayment for the damaged goods.我有权利索取货物损坏赔偿金。
• The tax authorities have been harrying her for repayment.税务局一直在催她补交税款。

2 repayments   

偿还，报答，偿付的钱物( repayment的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The repayments of the loan are spread over 10 years. 贷款可在十年内分期偿还。
• The repayments of the loan are spread over 25 years. 这笔贷款分摊二十五年偿还。

3 accrue   

v.(利息等)增大，增多

参考例句：

• Ability to think will accrue to you from good habits of study.思考能力将因良好的学习习惯而自然增强。
• Money deposited in banks will accrue to us with interest.钱存在银行，利息自生。

4 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

5 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

6 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

7 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

8 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

9 exempted   

使免除[豁免]( exempt的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• His bad eyesight exempted him from military service. 他因视力不好而免服兵役。
• Her illness exempted her from the examination. 她因病而免试。

10 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

11 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

12 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

13 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

14 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

15 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

17 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

18 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。