2023年经济学人 美国国债将难以保持稳定性

 

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Forget the Fed

    忘掉美联储

    Investors¹ are paying more attention than ever to the world’s safest assets.

    投资者比以往更加关注世界上最安全的资产。

    Regular and predictable.

    有规律的和可预测的。

    That has been the golden rule of Treasury² issuance for 40 years.

    40年来，这一直是美国国债发行的黄金法则。

    America’s fiscal³ branch once funded itself with “tactical” bond sales.

    美国的财政部门曾经通过“战术性”债券出售来筹集资金。

    Officials would survey market participants and issue debt in response.

    官员们会对市场参与者进行调查，并据此发行债券。

    But this process proved highly disruptive to financial activity.

    但事实证明，这一过程会严重干扰金融活动。

    So in 1982 they adopted a new approach: a regular schedule of issuance would be followed, communicated long in advance.

    因此，在1982年，官员们采用了一种新方法：遵循有规律的发行时间表，提前很长时间就公布发行计划。

    Treasury officials now think that, by reducing overall borrowing costs, this strategy has saved taxpayers⁴ a fortune.

    财政部官员现在认为，通过降低总体借贷成本，这一策略为纳税人节省了一大笔钱。

    As a part of this regularly scheduled programme the Treasury has, for decades, released a “quarterly refunding⁵ announcement” in which it lays out its plans for the next three months.

    作为这种定期计划的一部分，几十年来，财政部都会发布“季度再融资公告”，列出未来3个月的计划。

    This is not generally a hotly anticipated event, being precisely⁶ the kind of wonkish release that seldom attracts wider interest.

    这通常不是那种人们会热切期盼的事件，而恰恰是那种很少引起广泛兴趣的、关于政策细节的乏味公告。

    But on November 1st the announcement was pretty much all that Wall Street cared about.

    但在11月1日，华尔街最关心的就是这份公告。

    Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets, an investment bank, declared this a “unique moment in market history”, because the refunding announcement was more important than the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which took place later the same day.

    蒙特利尔银行投行子公司的伊恩·林根称，这是“金融市场历史上独一无二的时刻”，因为再融资公告比美联储会议更重要（美联储会议在当天晚些时候召开）。

    “All that matters at this moment is supply.”

    “此时此刻最重要的就是供应。”

    Investors’ interest has been piqued⁷ for several reasons.

    投资者的兴趣被激起有几个原因。

    America’s fiscal deficit⁸ is large.

    美国的财政赤字很庞大。

    It will clock in at almost 6% of GDP for the fiscal year of 2022-23.

    在2022至2023财年，赤字将达到GDP的近6%。

    It has been pushed upwards⁹ by high interest rates, which have increased the cost of servicing America’s national debt.

    高利率推高了赤字，因为高利率增加了美国偿还国家债务利息的成本。

    This has put pressure on bond markets.

    这给债券市场带来了压力。

    In August, at the last refunding announcement, the market appeared surprised by both the increase in total issuance and just how much of it was long-dated.

    今年8月，即上一次宣布再融资时，市场似乎对总发行量的增长以及有如此多的长期债券感到惊讶。

    In the weeks that followed several auctions¹¹ “tailed”—trader-speak for the auction¹⁰ resulting in debt being issued at a higher yield than expected.

    在接下来的几周里，几次国债拍卖出现“尾部”--交易员的行话，意思是拍卖导致债券实际的收益率高于预期收益率。

    Some traders think this exacerbated¹² the almighty¹³ sell-off in long-dated bonds that has occurred since the summer.

    一些交易员认为，这加剧了自夏季以来长期债券的抛售。

    Since August 1st the yield on T-bills, the name given to short-dated Treasuries¹⁴ which mature within a year, has not budged¹⁵ at all.

    自8月1日以来，T券（一年内到期的短期国债）的收益率没有丝毫变化。

    Yields have spiked¹⁶, however, for long-dated bonds that mature in ten or 30 years.

    然而，10年或30年期的长期债券的收益率已经飙升。

    The difference between what it costs to borrow in the short term and the long term is called the “term premium”—and it has returned with a vengeance¹⁷.

    短期借贷成本和长期借贷成本之间的差额被称为“期限溢价”，这种溢价再次回归，且数额更大。

    In the event, markets were relieved by the Treasury’s announcement.

    结果，财政部的公告让市场松了一口气。

    Planned issuance was increased, but will be concentrated at the short end.

    计划发行的国债量增加了，但大多是短期债券。

    Exactly the same value of 20-year Treasuries will be issued in the three months from November as in the three that preceded it, but almost 20% more two-year Treasuries will be sold.

    从11月份开始的之后三个月里，20年期美国国债的发行量将与之前三个月完全相同，但两年期国债的发行量将增加近20%。

    Currently, short-dated T-bill issuance is more than one-fifth of total debt issuance.

    目前，短期国库券发行量占总发行量的五分之一以上。

    Although that is slightly above historical levels, the issuance committee indicated that it might be willing to go higher still.

    尽管这一数字略高于历史水平，但发行委员会表示，可能愿意进一步提高发行量。

    As noted¹⁸ in the minutes of their meeting, committee members “supported meaningful deviation” from the range.

    正如会议纪要所指出的那样，委员会成员“支持有意义地偏离”历史范围。

    Markets embraced all of this news.

    市场欣然接受了所有这些消息。

    The yield on the ten-year Treasury fell about ten basis points after the release.

    公告发布后，10年期美国国债收益率下跌了约10个基点。

    That the Treasury managed to reassure¹⁹ investors this time round is a pleasing outcome for all involved.

    财政部这一次成功地安抚了投资者，这对所有人来说都是一个令人高兴的结果。

    Its officials are sticking to their procedure as far as regular programming is concerned—they will, in three months’ time, publish their next set of issuance plans.

    官员们仍然坚持定期发行程序，他们将在三个月后公布下一轮发行计划。

    But with markets so volatile²⁰ it is becoming ever harder for the Treasury to remain predictable.

    但市场如此动荡，财政部越来越难以保持其可预测性。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

3 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

4 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

5 refunding   

n.借新债还旧债；再融资；债务延展；发行新债券取代旧债券v.归还，退还( refund的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• They are refunding parents their money on over a billion toys. 他们退还父母他们的金钱在十亿个玩具。 来自互联网
• I am refunding the extra, but getting tired of doing this. 我退还额外的，而是要改变这样累了。 来自互联网

6 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

7 piqued   

v.伤害…的自尊心( pique的过去式和过去分词 )；激起（好奇心）

参考例句：

• Their curiosity piqued, they stopped writing. 他们的好奇心被挑起，停下了手中的笔。 来自辞典例句
• This phenomenon piqued Dr Morris' interest. 这一现象激起了莫里斯医生的兴趣。 来自辞典例句

8 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

9 upwards   

adv.向上，在更高处...以上

参考例句：

• The trend of prices is still upwards.物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
• The smoke rose straight upwards.烟一直向上升。

10 auction   

n.拍卖；拍卖会；vt.拍卖

参考例句：

• They've put the contents of their house up for auction.他们把房子里的东西全都拿去拍卖了。
• They bought a new minibus with the proceeds from the auction.他们用拍卖得来的钱买了一辆新面包车。

11 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

12 exacerbated   

v.使恶化，使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The symptoms may be exacerbated by certain drugs. 这些症状可能会因为某些药物而加重。
• The drugs they gave her only exacerbated the pain. 他们给她吃的药只是加重了她的痛楚。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 almighty   

adj.全能的，万能的；很大的，很强的

参考例句：

• Those rebels did not really challenge Gods almighty power.这些叛徒没有对上帝的全能力量表示怀疑。
• It's almighty cold outside.外面冷得要命。

14 treasuries   

n.（政府的）财政部( treasury的名词复数 )；国库，金库

参考例句：

• Yields on Treasuries, Bunds and gilts can remain at historically low levels. 美国国债、德国国债和英国国债的收益率仍然可以维持在历史低位。 来自互联网
• Treasuries and gold rose in response but the dollar fell sharply. 接着，国债和黄金的价格上涨，而美元价格则猛跌。 来自互联网

15 budged   

v.（使）稍微移动( budge的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）改变主意，（使）让步

参考例句：

• Old Bosc had never budged an inch--he was totally indifferent. 老包斯克一直连动也没有动，他全然无所谓。 来自辞典例句
• Nobody budged you an inch. 别人一丁点儿都算计不了你。 来自辞典例句

16 spiked   

adj.有穗的；成锥形的；有尖顶的

参考例句：

• The editor spiked the story. 编辑删去了这篇报道。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They wondered whether their drinks had been spiked. 他们有些疑惑自己的饮料里是否被偷偷搀了烈性酒。 来自辞典例句

17 vengeance   

n.报复，报仇，复仇

参考例句：

• He swore vengeance against the men who murdered his father.他发誓要向那些杀害他父亲的人报仇。
• For years he brooded vengeance.多年来他一直在盘算报仇。

18 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

19 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

20 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。