PBS高端访谈:气候变化与洪灾的联系

 　　RAY SUAREZ: Finally tonight, new research and warnings about the risk of worsening flooding connected with climate change.

　　A report released today by the research organization Climate Central finds the rise in sea level along many coastal¹ communities is accelerating. By 2030, according to the report, nearly five million Americans living along coastal shores could be faced with storm surges up to four feet higher than their local tide lines.

　　To help better understand the risk, Climate Central has created an interactive² online mapping tool that shows the risk in cities up and down the coast. You can find a link to that tool on our website.

　　For more on the study, we turn to its lead author, Ben Strauss. He is the director of the group's Sea Level Program.

　　And, Ben, the report says that, globally, the sea level has risen about eight inches since 1880. Eight inches in 132 years, is that a lot?

　　BEN STRAUSS, Climate Central: It may not sound like a lot, but it is. It's been enough to already double the chances for once-a-century storms at most locations we've studied around the United States.

　　RAY SUAREZ: Now, the report concludes that both warming and sea level rise are accelerating, and that you expect to see much more of it in the coming years.

　　Are there examples of particularly vulnerable places in the United States?

　　BEN STRAUSS: Sure.

　　Well, we've seen eight inches over the last century. Scientific projections³ now range between two and seven feet over the next century. And the most vulnerable places in the United States include Southern Florida, Louisiana and South California, as well as really isolated⁴ locations all up and down the coasts, Chesapeake region of Virginia, Jersey⁵ Shore, New York City.

　　RAY SUAREZ: Are there big population centers? You mentioned New York City. Let's use New York as an example.

　　It's not a place that we think of as being flat or low-lying. If the water rose a great -- a couple inches in the next several years, what would it leave a place like that vulnerable to?

　　BEN STRAUSS: Yes.

　　Well, what sea level rise does is, it raises the launching pad for coastal storms. And Manhattan is very vulnerable to coastal storms. New York Harbor is shaped a little like a funnel⁶. So, if a hurricane hits at the wrong angle, there's already the possibility of a storm surge that would leap into Lower Manhattan and fill the subway system , much of which is already below sea level, and disable it.

　　So, as the sea level continues to rise, the odds⁷ of that kind of event continue to increase. And one day, instead of needing a Category 3 hurricane, we might instead just need a Category 2 hurricane and so forth⁸.

　　RAY SUAREZ: So, if I understand you correctly, on normal days, a lot of these places with the regular tides and prevailing⁹ winds wouldn't be in very much trouble, but if there is a severe weather event, they're in big trouble.

　　BEN STRAUSS: Yes.

　　Again, if you were to raise the floor of a basketball court, you would see a lot more dunks. And sea level rise is raising the floor that storms launch from. In the long run, I think people think of sea level rise, they think of land becoming permanently¹⁰ inundated¹¹ and flooding and the map changing. And that will happen in the long run, very unfortunately.

　　But in the near term, what we're going to see is more and more storms, more and more coastal floods getting higher and higher.

　　RAY SUAREZ: A lot of climate scientists say the push factors that are raising water levels are already built into the atmosphere, built into the physics of the planet, and even shutting off emissions¹² now wouldn't change the near term.

　　So what can human beings who are living in these vulnerable communities do to protect themselves in the next 10 and 20 years?

　　BEN STRAUSS: Yes. Now, I'm afraid that's right.

　　If we reduce emissions, we can make a big difference by the end of the century in terms of far and how fast the sea level rise. But a lot of sea level rise is already inevitable¹³. Just like if you take an ice cube out of the freezer and put it on a table, it takes a while to melt. And we have already warmed up the planet enough to cause a lot of melting. And the glaciers¹⁴ and ice sheets haven't caught up.

　　So to prepare for the higher waters that are inevitable, communities can protect the beaches and marshes¹⁵ that they have that serve as buffers¹⁶ for flooding. They can allow space for beaches and marshes to migrate inland as the seas rise. They can build seawalls or levees where that's not possible.

　　And I think we can also look very closely at, well, trying not to build more things in places that are vulnerable. And for the places that are indefensible or too expensive, not practical to defend, sadly, some careful planned retreats.

　　RAY SUAREZ: Myron Ebell, a prominent skeptic¹⁷ on this science, told us this afternoon, it's foolish to plan based on models that he says have little forecasting value, that sea levels may rise only a foot in the next century, and doing the kind of public works that you're suggesting to defend against it may be an unwise expenditure¹⁸.

　　How do you respond to that?

　　BEN STRAUSS: Well, I respond to that in a couple of ways.

　　First, the model that's the basis for our projections of global sea level rise has very accurately¹⁹ hindcasted the history of sea level rise over the last thousand years, which is as well as you can do for testing a model.

　　It's our best scientific judgment²⁰. Second of all, consider a bullet. A bullet is not dangerous if you're holding it in your hand. It's not dangerous if you throw it. But it's dangerous if it's fired from a gun at high speeds.

　　What will hurt us with sea level rise is a rise at high speed. And if we don't prepare for that, we'll be in deep trouble. I think the risk is greater on the side of not preparing.

　　RAY SUAREZ: Ben Strauss of Climate Central, thanks for joining us.

　　BEN STRAUSS: Thank you so much, Ray.

1 coastal   

adj.海岸的，沿海的，沿岸的

参考例句：

• The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。

2 interactive   

adj.相互作用的，互相影响的，（电脑）交互的

参考例句：

• The psychotherapy is carried out in small interactive groups.这种心理治疗是在互动的小组之间进行的。
• This will make videogames more interactive than ever.这将使电子游戏的互动性更胜以往。

3 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

4 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

5 jersey   

n.运动衫

参考例句：

• He wears a cotton jersey when he plays football.他穿运动衫踢足球。
• They were dressed alike in blue jersey and knickers.他们穿着一致，都是蓝色的运动衫和灯笼短裤。

6 funnel   

n.漏斗；烟囱；v.汇集

参考例句：

• He poured the petrol into the car through a funnel.他用一个漏斗把汽油灌入汽车。
• I like the ship with a yellow funnel.我喜欢那条有黄烟囱的船。

7 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

8 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

9 prevailing   

adj.盛行的；占优势的；主要的

参考例句：

• She wears a fashionable hair style prevailing in the city.她的发型是这个城市流行的款式。
• This reflects attitudes and values prevailing in society.这反映了社会上盛行的态度和价值观。

10 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

11 inundated   

v.淹没( inundate的过去式和过去分词 )；（洪水般地）涌来；充满；给予或交予（太多事物）使难以应付

参考例句：

• We have been inundated with offers of help. 主动援助多得使我们应接不暇。
• We have been inundated with every bit of information imaginable. 凡是想得到的各种各样的信息潮水般地向我们涌来。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。

13 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

14 glaciers   

冰河，冰川( glacier的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Glaciers gouged out valleys from the hills. 冰川把丘陵地带冲出一条条山谷。
• It has ice and snow glaciers, rainforests and beautiful mountains. 既有冰川，又有雨林和秀丽的山峰。 来自英语晨读30分（高一）

15 marshes   

n.沼泽，湿地( marsh的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Cows were grazing on the marshes. 牛群在湿地上吃草。
• We had to cross the marshes. 我们不得不穿过那片沼泽地。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

17 skeptic   

n.怀疑者，怀疑论者，无神论者

参考例句：

• She is a skeptic about the dangers of global warming.她是全球变暖危险的怀疑论者。
• How am I going to convince this skeptic that she should attention to my research?我将如何使怀疑论者确信她应该关注我的研究呢？

18 expenditure   

n.(时间、劳力、金钱等)支出；使用，消耗

参考例句：

• The entry of all expenditure is necessary.有必要把一切开支入账。
• The monthly expenditure of our family is four hundred dollars altogether.我们一家的开销每月共计四百元。

19 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

20 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。