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In congressional testimony¹ this week, the top U.S. military and civilian² officials in Iraq reported what they called "real" but "fragile" progress, and urged caution in any discussion of further U.S. troop withdrawals³, beyond the end of the surge in July.

美国驻伊拉克最高军事指挥官彼得雷乌斯将军和最高文职官员克罗克大使本星期在美国国会作证时汇报说，伊拉克的形势出现了“真实”但“脆弱”的进展。他们还敦促，要审慎对待所有关于7月份增兵行动结束后美国开始进一步撤军的讨论。

General Petraeus said he has recommended a 45-day period of consolidation⁴ after the surge troops leave. He says only then, in early September, will he be able to even begin to assess whether he can send home more troops.

彼得雷乌斯将军说，他建议在增援部队离开伊拉克后进行为期45天的整合。他说，只有到9月初整合结束时，他才能开始评估是否可以撤回更多军力。

The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Carl Levin, pressed the general on just how long that assessment⁵ will take.

参议院军事委员会主席莱文参议员坚持要求彼得雷乌斯将军说明评估所需的时间。

LEVIN: "Do you have any estimate at all as to how long that second period is going to take? Could that be a month? Could that be two months?"

莱文说：“你究竟是否计算过评估需要多长时间？ 一个月？还是两个月？“

PETRAEUS: "Sir, it could be less than that."

彼得雷乌斯将军说：“可能不会这么久。”

LEVIN: "Could it be more than that?"

莱文说：“是否可能比这个时间更长？”

PETRAEUS: "It could be more than that. Again, it's when the conditions are met that we can make a recommendation for further reductions."

彼得雷乌斯将军说：“这也有可能。我再说一遍，必须到时机成熟时我们才能建议进一步撤军。”

LEVIN: "I understand, but I'm just asking you a direct question. Could that be as long as three months?"

莱文说：“我明白这一点。但是，我就是要问你一个直接的问题。这段评估期是否可能需要3个月？”

PETRAEUS: "It could be, sir."

彼得雷乌斯将军说：“有可能。”

LEVIN: "Could it be as long as four months?"

莱文说：“那4个月呢？”

PETRAEUS: "Sir, it is when the conditions are met."

彼得雷乌斯将军说：“要等条件都具备才可以进一步撤军。”

And no one can say when that will be. Analyst⁶ Michele Flournoy of the Center for a New American Security, who spent several weeks in Iraq earlier this year, says the general's caution reflects concerns among U.S. commanders throughout the country.

不过，没人知道这将是什么时候。新型美国安全中心的分析人士弗卢努瓦今年早些时候曾在伊拉克待过几个月，他说，彼得雷乌斯将军的审慎态度反映了所有驻伊美军指挥官们的担心。

"It tells us that he and his commanders are comfortable with going to 15 brigade combat teams, but they're not comfortable committing to go beyond that," she said. "And I think that the request for a pause came from the bottom-up, from the various division commanders, and they want a six-week period to kind of see how the dust settles."

他说：“这告诉我们，彼得雷乌斯和他的指挥官们可以接受把作战部队军力削减到15个旅。但是，如果进一步削减军力，他们就不能接受了。我认为，暂停撤军是一个自下而上的要求，是各个指挥官提出的，他们需要6个星期的时间让尘埃落定，看清形势。”

By the time that dust settles, Iraq is supposed to be preparing for provincial⁷ elections in October, to be followed in early November by the U.S. presidential election. Michele Flournoy says that is not a good time for U.S. troop withdrawals that could lead to instability.

等到尘埃落定，就该是伊拉克为10月的省级选举做准备的时候了，而美国在11月初也要进行总统选举。弗卢努瓦说，这不是美军撤退的良好时机，因为撤军可能导致不稳定局势的出现。

"I think this administration is probably not going to go very far down that path," she added. "I think it's probably going to be left to the next president. Going into our own transition period, a time between Election Day and Inauguration⁸ Day, it's not a time when you want instability or a crisis in Iraq for a team that's departing or a team that's coming in to deal with right away."

他说：“我觉得，本届政府可能不会在这个问题上有太多举动。我想，这个问题可能要留给下一任总统了。在美国，从选举日到总统就职日是一个过渡时期。在段时间里，人们不想让正在撤离的美军或者刚刚接手的伊拉克军队去应对不稳定局势或者去化解一场危机。”

When the surge ends, the United States will have 140,000 troops in Iraq. And more and more analysts⁹ are predicting that number will not be reduced much, if at all, by the time the new president takes office in January. General Petraeus' comments this week appear to justify¹⁰ that view.

到增兵结束时，美国在伊拉克的驻兵数量将是14万。越来越多的分析人士预测，到新一任美国总统在明年1月就职时，这一数字不会进一步下降，或者只能小幅降低。彼得雷乌斯将军这个星期说的话似乎印证了这种观点。

That means the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq will remain a key issue in the presidential election campaign, and the U.S. military will continue to be strained by repeated, lengthy¹¹ combat deployments. It also means there won't be many U.S. troops available to add to the coalition¹² force in Afghanistan, which President Bush promised NATO allies his successor would do next year.

这意味着，美国在伊拉克驻军将继续成为总统竞选活动的一个主要议题，而反复又漫长的战斗部署将继续给美军带来压力；这还意味着驻阿富汗联军将无法得到大量美军的增援，而布什政府已经向北约盟国作出承诺，说他的继任者将在明年增加驻阿富汗联军中美军的数量。

Still, in spite of some public opinion polls to the contrary, analyst Brian Darling of the conservative Heritage Foundation says he believes the American people will be willing to support a continued large U.S. troop presence in Iraq.

来自保守智库传统基金会的分析人士布莱恩.达林提出了和一些民意调查结果相左的看法。他说，他认为美国继续在伊拉克大量驻军将会得到美国人民的支持。

"The United States can keep 140,000 troops in Iraq as long as progress is being made," he said. "And I think the American people will accept more time for troops to be in Iraq to allow for the political developments to take effect."

他说：“只要伊拉克的情况出现改善，美国就可以保持14万驻军的数量。我认为，美国人民将会接受把军队驻扎伊拉克的时间延长，以使伊拉克的政治进步发挥效果。”

Darling says this week's report by the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, indicates political progress is being made, although slowly. And analysts say only political accommodation among Iraqi factions¹³ can pave the way for long-term stability.

达林说，美国驻伊拉克大使克罗克本星期的证词表明，政治进步正在出现，虽然比较缓慢。分析人士们说，只有伊拉克各派之间实现政治和解才能为该国的长期稳定铺平道路。

At the end of a long day of hearings on Tuesday, General Petraeus summed up his view of the situation in Iraq, five years after the U.S.-led invasion and more than a year after he took command and implemented¹⁴ the surge and a new counterinsurgency strategy.

从美国领导进攻伊拉克开始已经过去5年了，而距离彼得雷乌斯将军本人成为指挥官、实施增兵政策和新的反暴乱战略也已经有一年多的时间。在星期二漫长的听证会结束时，彼得雷乌斯将军总结了他对伊拉克局势的看法。

"We haven't turned any corners," he said. "We haven't seen any lights at the end of a tunnel. The champagne¹⁵ bottle has been pushed to the back of the refrigerator. And the progress, while real, is fragile and is reversible."

彼得雷乌斯将军说：“我们还没有渡过难关。我们还没有看到隧道尽头的光明。庆功的香槟酒已经被推进了冰箱里面。伊拉克虽然出现了真实的进展，但这种进步是脆弱的，还可能出现倒退。”

General Petraeus wants most of the rest of the year, at least, to make the progress stronger and less reversible. And it will likely be left to his successor, and President Bush's, sometime next year at the earliest, to turn the corner, see the light at the end of the tunnel and take that celebratory bottle of champagne out of the refrigerator.

彼得雷乌斯将军希望，至少在今年剩下的大部分时间里，伊拉克的进步趋势可以得到增强，出现逆转的可能性也能降低，可能至少要到明年才能渡过难关，看到隧道尽头的光明，并从冰箱中取出那瓶庆功的香槟酒，而这些目标将被留给彼得雷乌斯将军和布什总统的继任者来完成。