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A dramatic surge in the international price for rice has U.S. producers planting more fields in an effort to increase profits. But, in the rice-growing area of Dayton, Texas, high costs could limit their margins¹.

国际大米价格显著增加使美国农民种植更多粮食以增加利润。但是，在美国德克萨斯州代顿市的大米种植区，高昂的成本可能会限制农民获利。

Tractors are tilling the land and building earthen rows that will serve as levees once water flows into these fields. This area of southeast Texas is one of the best rice growing areas of the United States. Other states that also produce major amounts of rice include Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

拖拉机在耕地，并且建起一道道田埂，等水流进这些农田时，这些田埂就能起到河堤的作用。 德州东南部的这个地区是美国最好的大米种植区之一。其它主要大米产区还包括阿肯色州、路易斯安那州和密西西比州。

Ray Stoesser plants rice on more than 1,800 hectares of land in the area near his home in Dayton, Texas and he is hoping the recent jump in prices will help him come out ahead.

施特塞尔在德州代顿市自家附近的一千八多百公顷农田上种植大米。他希望大米价格最近的上涨能帮他赚上一笔。

"Naturally, we watch the market and the market is better than it has been since 1974 right now," he said. "We can grow rice and make a good yield and we can usually get a second growth, so we will maximize our profits."

他说：“很自然，我们留意市场行情，现在的行情是1974年以来最好的。我们可以种大米，获得良好的利润，然后我们通常还能再种一季，这样就能获得最大的利润。”

The price of rice has more than doubled in the past year, but Stoesser says production costs have also risen.

大米的价格在过去一年中增长了一倍多。但是，施特塞尔说，生产成本也提高了。

"Fertilizer went up $80 a ton last week," he added. "It just seems like when we need it, everything goes up. All our suppliers say they cannot get potash and they cannot get phosphorous and, of course, nitrogen is mostly imported into this country right now, so we have to depend on foreign sources for that."

他说：“化肥上周每吨涨了80美元。好像当我们需要的时候，所有的东西都涨价。我们所有的供货商都说，他们手里没有钾肥、磷肥，而美国大部分氮肥目前要靠进口，所以我们得靠从国外进货才行。”

Dwight Roberts is president and Chief Operating officer of the Houston-based U.S. Rice Producers Association. He says rice is the most expensive crop to grow in the United States because it is fully² mechanized, so he says farmers in some of the best growing areas for rice are cautious in their planting decisions.

罗伯茨是休斯敦的美国稻米生产者协会的主席和首席运营官。他说，在美国，种植大米的花销比种别的农作物都高，因为种植大米是一个全部机械化的过程。因此，他说，一些最好的大米产区的农民在决定种植什么作物时非常谨慎。

"The bulk of the U.S. rice crop is yet to be planted as we go north into Louisiana and up into Arkansas to the Missouri boot heel," he noted³.

Roberts says the United States exports about half the rice it produces, so when prices are low on the world market, farmers tend to shift production to crops that are more profitable at home, like corn and soybeans. The price of both of those crops has risen sharply in recent years because of their use in making bio-fuels.

罗伯茨说，美国大米产量中的一半用于出口，所以当大米在世界市场上的价格偏低时，农民们倾向于种植那些在美国国内利润更高的作物，比如玉米和大豆。由于这两种作物可以用于制造生物燃料，它们的价格在最近几年里都大幅攀升。

Dwight Roberts says the reason for the international shortage of rice has to do, in many cases, with government policies in nations where prices for consumers were subsidized without providing incentives⁴ for farmers. He also blames drought in Australia, where rice production has virtually come to a halt, and an increase in demand driven by population growth.

罗伯茨说，国际大米短缺通常和一些国家的政府政策有关，这些国家的大米售价是政府补贴后的结果，而政府没有给农民提供种植大米的激励措施。他说，澳大利亚发生干旱也是原因之一，那里的大米生产实际上陷入了停顿，此外，人口增长所引起的需求增加也促成了涨价。

"Economists⁵ predict that the world population will grow by one billion people during the next 10 years and the middle class will grow by 1.8 billion people and 600 million of those are in China, and when people move up in the economic chain they want to eat better, they want more protein, which requires more grain and more fuels to produce it," he said.

他说：“经济学家预测，世界人口在未来十年中将增加十亿，中产阶级人口将比现在多18亿，中国的中产阶级人口就将有6亿。当人们的经济地位提高之后，他们想吃得更好，吃更多蛋白质，而这意味着需要更多粮食，以及更多的燃料来生产这些粮食。”

Growth in population has also contributed to urban sprawl⁶. The loss of arable⁷ land to housing, roads and other infrastructure⁸ has also reduced the world's rice production.

人口的增长还促成了城市的延伸。耕地被用来建房、修路和进行其它基础设施建设，这也减少了世界大米产量。

Dwight Roberts says all of these factors have come together to reduce the amount of rice available.

罗伯茨说，所有这些因素共同作用使市场上的大米数量减少。

"We have seen in a number of countries including Vietnam, Thailand, the United States, India, Pakistan and, to some degree, in Uruguay and Argentina, we have seen reductions and so now it is a simple case of supply and demand and we have gotten to a point where world stocks of rice are at the lowest today since the early 1970's and we have had a lot of population growth since then, so there is a very tight supply and Third World consumers in particular are hurting right now," he added.

Increased production in the United States will help alleviate⁹ the rice shortage in some parts of the world. The United States has promised to help the Philippines, which imports about 15 percent of the rice consumed in the country and is facing severe shortages. But overall, the demand for this grain worldwide is likely to outpace production, keeping the price high and promoting social unrest in poor nations where food supplies are low.

美国大米产量的增加将帮助减轻世界一些地区的大米短缺问题。美国承诺帮助菲律宾。菲律宾国内所需大米的15%依赖进口，并且面临严重的短缺问题。但是，从总体上来看，全世界对大米需求的增长速度有可能超过生产增加的速度，使大米价格保持在高位，并且在那些粮食供应量低的贫穷国家造成社会混乱。