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美国经济复苏缓慢而不稳

A look at some key industries in the United States shows that the economic recovery is a bit erratic¹ and growth seems to be slowing down.

美国一些主要行业的统计数据显示，美国经济复苏仍然不稳定，而且增长速度正在放慢。

Economists³ say trucks haul nearly 70 percent of the freight used in the United States.

经济学家说，卡车运输量占美国所有货运的70%。

The American Trucking Association says freight is a measure of the economy, because manufacturers have to move raw materials, carry parts to factories, haul imports and exports and deliver goods to store shelves.

美国卡车运输协会说，货运是衡量经济的指标，因为制造商需要运输原材料，把零件送到工厂，运输进出口货物，并把商品送到商店货架上。

“We are actually a very good indicator⁴, a leading economic indicator ((a way of looking at the economic future)) in fact. And so if tonnage starts to fall, we get nervous. If it’s going up, we are pretty happy,“ said Bob Costello, the group's chief economist².

鲍勃·卡斯特罗是美国卡车运输协会的主任经济师。他说：“我们是一个很好的指标，事实上是主要经济指标。如果吨位下降，我们就会紧张，如果上升，我们就很高兴。”

Freight tonnage is going up at the moment, but the rate of growth is slowing down.

目前，运输吨位在上升，可是上升的速度在下降。

"It is telling me that the economy is not falling into another recession. It will continue as a sort of a slow growth recovery," Costello said.

卡斯特罗说：“这就告诉我，经济不会再次衰退，会继续缓慢地复苏。”

Other clues about economic growth come from the volume of air freight. The most recent data show demand for air freight fell more than three percent globally during July.

经济增长的另一个迹象是空运量。最新数据显示，7月全球空运需求量减少了百分之3以上。

"It can also, as you start to see air cargo⁵ dropping off and you are seeing other signs -- it can also be a leading indicator of a downturn,” said Perry Flint, of the International Air Transport Association.

国际航空运输协会的佩里·弗林特说：“当你开始看到空运货物量下降的时候，其他迹象也会显示同样的趋势，也就是说，空运量也可以是个主要指标。”

However, the same report shows that passenger traffic made gains during the same period.

可是，同一个报告显示，同期的航空客运量有所增加。

That may be why a top official of Cambria Suites⁶ Hotels, Michael Murphy, says business is strong.

这也许是坎布里亚酒店的高级主管迈克尔·墨菲说生意很好的原因。

“We are seeing the highest demand in the history of the hotel industry right now. More people are traveling now than ever before, and that's in all segments of travel,” Murphy said.

墨菲说：“我们目前的订房需求是酒店行业历史上最高的。现在旅行的人数超过以往任何时候，各种旅行都一样。”

The contradictory⁷ indicators⁸ are one reason that predicting the economic future is a complex and difficult task.

相互矛盾的指标，使得预测经济前景变得复杂和困难。

For example, government experts first said the U.S. economy expanded at a 1.5 percent annual rate during April, May, and June. Then they made a revision -- as new information became available and showed growth was more likely at a 1.7 percent rate.

比如在今年4、5、6月份，政府部门专家说，美国经济的年增长率为百分之1.5。然后他们修正说，新的数据显示，年增长率可能超过百分之1.7。

Trying to figure out what to do about the sluggish⁹ economic recovery is even more complicated.

要找到如何解决经济复苏缓慢的方法更是一项错综复杂的任务。