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美国大选将影响全球经济

Even as Europe grapples with a debt crisis that threatens the whole region, and China attempts to put the brakes on a slowing economy - the U.S. election is commanding headlines around the world. Global citizens want to know who Americans will choose as their new leader. Because whoever wins in November will control the largest purse string in the world, and with it - the ability to shape the global economy.

即使有欧洲应对债务危机和中国经济发展减慢这样的重大新闻，美国总统大选仍然占据世界媒体的头版头条。全球都希望知道美国人将选择谁作为他们的新领导人。因为，无论谁在11月大选中获胜，都将控制世界最大的钱袋，以及影响全球经济的能力。

If the polls are right, the 2012 election will be decided¹ by a few crucial votes in a handful of hotly contested states. But far from being just a domestic ballot² - Bruce Stokes at the Pew research Center says the U.S. election will have global implications.

如果民调正确的话，2012年的大选将由竞争激烈的几个州的一些关键选票所决定。皮尤研究中心的布鲁斯-斯特克斯说，美国大选将产生全球影响。

"Oh absolutely, the Americans get to vote in this election but the world gets to deal with the consequences," said Stokes.

他说：“当然是了，美国人要在选举中投票，但世界将应对选举的结果。”

With a gross domestic product equal to about a quarter of the world's total output, no other country has a larger economic footprint. A common refrain among economists³ is that when the U.S. sniffles, the rest of the world catches a cold.

美国国民生产总值约占全球的四分之一，没有任何其它国家的经济足迹能超过美国。经济学家们常常说：如果美国打喷嚏，整个世界就感冒。

Desmond Lachman is a macroeconomist at the conservative leaning American Enterprise Institute.

保守的智库美国企业研究所的宏观经济学家德蒙-拉赫曼说：

"We saw that clearly in the 2008-2009 great economic recession, events that occurred in the United States banking⁴ system reverberated⁵ right through the globe," said Lachman.

“在2008-2009的经济大衰退中，我们清楚地看到了这种情况。美国银行系统中发生的各种事情，在全球都会产生巨大影响。”

On the campaign trail, both candidates agree a healthy U.S. economy is crucial to global stability. Both have assured Americans they have a plan to bolster⁶ the economy - starting with Republican hopeful Mitt⁷ Romney, who promises to level the playing field by getting tough on China.

奥巴马和罗姆尼在竞选中都认同，一个健康的美国经济对全球的稳定至关重要。他们二人都向美国人民保证，他们有提振经济的计划。

"On day one, I will label China a currency manipulator, which will allow me as president to be able to put in place, if necessary, tariffs⁸ where I believe that they are taking unfair advantage of our manufacturers," said Romney.

Fighting to win a second term, President Obama says U.S. trade has increased significantly under his leadership. So has China's undervalued currency, which he says has risen 11 percent since he took office.

力争竞选连任的奥巴马总统说，在他的领导下，美国贸易额明显地增加。他说，低估的人民币汇率也是如此，自从他就职以来，人民币已经升值11%。

The key to a strong economy says Obama is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and he says Romney is the wrong person to do it.

奥巴马说，强大经济的关键是使制造业的工作重新返回美国。他说，罗姆尼不是做成这件事的人。

"Keep in mind that Governor Romney invested in companies that were pioneers of outsourcing to China. Governor, you're the last person who is going to get tough on China," said President Obama.

But China is only part of a larger equation. The debt crisis in Europe has reduced demand for U.S. goods. Desmond Lachman says deepening problems in the 17-nation eurozone could further slow growth - worldwide.

但是，中国只是整个问题的一部分。欧洲的债务危机减少了对美国产品的需求。拉赫曼说，欧元区17国经济危机日益加剧的问题，可能进一步放慢全球的增长。

"My expectation is that Europe, being the largest trading partner of the United States is going to pose real challenges to the United States in the years ahead," he said.

他说：“我预计，欧洲作为美国最大的贸易伙伴，在未来数年将对美国构成真正的挑战。”

Lachman says Romney offers a more business friendly approach to solving the nation's chronically⁹ high unemployment. But the Pew Center's Bruce Stokes says given Obama's popularity in many parts of the world, the image of the U.S. could suffer under a Romney presidency¹⁰.

拉赫曼说，罗姆尼在如何解决美国持续高失业率的问题上提出了一个对工商界更有利的做法。但是皮尤中心的布鲁斯-斯特克斯说，鉴于奥巴马在世界很多地方的声望，罗姆尼执政可能会损害美国的形象。

"China, very interesting. I do think given Romney's rhetoric¹¹, there could be a short term hit to America's image in China. The big hit is going to be in Europe," said Stokes.

他说：“我认为，由于罗姆尼发表的言论，美国在中国的形象短期会受到影响，在欧洲也会受到很大影响。”

A recent survey by the Pew Center shows Western Europe overwhelmingly in favor of a second term for Obama: 92 percent in France, 89 percent in Germany and 73 percent in Britain. However, the president scored poorly in Greece where only 22 percent approved of his handling of the global economy.

皮尤中心最近的一份民调显示，西欧压倒性地赞成奥巴马连任：其中法国92%，德国89%，英国73%。但是，奥巴马在希腊的支持率很差，仅有22%的希腊人认同他对全球经济的处理。

Whoever wins, Lachman says there's a lot at stake, particularly if a divided Congress is unable to agree on drastic spending cuts at the end of the year.

拉赫曼说，无论谁将在大选中获胜，很多事情都受到影响，尤其是如果一个分裂的国会无法在今年年底就大幅度削减预算达成一致。

"If things go wrong in the United States that would certainly have huge global ramifications¹², particularly right now with the rest of the world not being in good shape, the last thing they need is for the United States to be stumbling," he said.

他说：“如果美国发生问题，肯定会产生巨大的全球影响，尤其是目前世界其它地方经济不好，他们最不愿看到的是美国的经济跌跌撞撞。”

History suggests the world will adapt to whomever America chooses. What is clear say experts is that the outcome will shape economic and geopolitical attitudes around the world for years to come.

历史证明，世界将去适应美国人民选择的任何一位总统。专家们说，有一点很明显，美国总统大选的结果将在今后数年影响全球的经济和地缘政治态度。