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IMF：亚太新兴经济体增长前景减弱

The International Monetary¹ Fund says global growth patterns are shifting once again. The IMF’s latest outlook shows declining prospects² for the Asia and Pacific regions - down collectively nearly 1 percent from initial forecasts earlier this year. For most countries, the impact should be partially³ offset⁴ by improving conditions in advanced economies. Fiscal⁵ and political problems in the U.S., though, continue to create uncertainty⁶ worldwide.

国际货币基金组织说，全球经济增长形态再度发生转移。该组织最新预测显示，亚太地区经济发展减弱，比今年早些时候预测的总的减少将近1个百分点。对大部分国家来说，经济增长减弱的不利影响可能被发达经济体的经济改善抵消一部分。不过美国财政和政治问题持续为全世界带来不确定。

The IMF says the worst of the European debt crisis may be over, but tighter global liquidity⁷ and slow growth in China has dampened industrial activity in emerging countries in Asia and the Pacific.

国际货币基金组织说，欧洲债务危机最糟的情况可能已经结束，不过全球流动紧缩和中国增长减缓，都抑制了亚太地区新兴国家的产业活动。

IMF’s chief economist⁸, Olivier Blanchard, said, “The good news is Europe seems to have started growth again. In emerging market economies, that’s where the bad news is.

奥利维尔 布兰查德是国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家。他说: 好消息是，欧洲看起来已经开始再度增长。在新兴市场经济体，那才是坏消息的所在。

China’s economy, which has been largely insulated from recent market volatility⁹, will expand at a slower pace - 7.6 percent this year, slowing again to 7.3 percent in 2014.

中国经济大致上没有受到近来市场波动的影响，今年它的经济增长将放缓至百分之7.6，2014年再减缓至百分之7.3。

India, where inflation is approaching double digits¹⁰, is projected to grow 3.8 percent this year, down 2 percent from earlier forecasts.

印度的通货膨胀已接近2位数，它今年的经济增长估计是百分之3.8，较早些时候的预测降低2个百分点。

And Australia, which does a lot of business with India, likely will expand half a percent more slowly in 2013 - at two-and-a-half percent.

和印度有大量贸易往来的澳大利亚，其今年的经济增长为百分之2.5，比原先的估计可能减少半个百分点。

The bright spot is Japan, where heavy government stimulus¹¹ appears to have lifted the country out of a deflationary cycle.

比较光明面的是日本，来自政府的经济刺激看起来已经让日本脱离通货紧缩的循环。

But IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the ongoing¹² political impasse¹³ in the world’s largest economy is complicating¹⁴ prospects for future growth.

Obviously, we know and you know by now that failure to raise the debt ceiling would cause serious damage to the U.S. economy, but also to the global economy, she said.

明显的，现在我们和你们都知道，未能提高举债上限不但会造成美国经济严重损害，也会伤害全球经济。

Unless Congress can reach agreement on the debt ceiling, the U.S. will run out of money to pay its obligations by October 17. If that happens, economists¹⁵ say financial markets will crash, interest rates will soar and the U.S. could slip back into recession.

除非国会能就举债上限达成一致，否则美国将在10月17号用尽资金支付其财政义务。一旦发生这种情形，经济学家说，金融市场将会崩溃，利率将会飙升，而美国也可能再度陷入衰退。

Economist Erik Brattberg said many countries are worried. “They look at what’s happening in Washington right now and they wonder why this is happening? Why are they doing this? This is clearly not a good thing. Why can’t they just work it out?

约翰霍普金斯大学经济学家埃瑞克·布拉特伯格说，许多国家为此感到担忧。他说：“他们看着华盛顿正在发生的事情一边感到奇怪，为什么会发生这种事？为什么他们要这么做？这很清楚不是一件好事，为什么他们不能解决分歧？

The good news is that Washington lawmakers appear to be moving closer to a compromise.

好消息是，华盛顿的议员们看起来快要接近达成妥协。

Barring a calamitous¹⁶ U.S. default, the IMF says growth in emerging countries should strengthen, helped in part by increasing demand and growth in advanced economies.

在不发生灾难性的美国财政违约的情况下，国际货币基金组织说，新兴经济体的增长应该会增强，部分原因是来自发达经济体需求增加和增长提高的帮助。