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俄罗斯与西方博弈乌克兰

Following Russia's annexation¹ of Crimea, the West is trying to work out what the Kremlin's next move will be. Both the United States and Britain have expressed concern about Russia's troop buildup on the Ukrainian border. President Vladimir Putin's strategy has become an increasingly tense geopolitical chess game between East and West.

俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后，西方国家试图摸清楚克里姆林宫下一步会做什么。美国和英国都对俄罗斯陈兵乌克兰边境表示担忧。在东西方日益紧张的地缘政治这盘棋上，普京总统会采取什么战略？

Russian troops are trying to destabilize Ukraine, claim U.S. and British officials.

美国和英国官员指责俄罗斯军队试图破坏乌克兰的稳定。

But Russia's foreign minister says that is not case.

但俄罗斯外长否认这种说法。

"We are deeply convinced and nobody has so far challenged this conviction, that the situation cannot be calmed down and changed into national dialogue if the Ukrainian authorities go on ignoring the interests of the southeastern regions of the country," said Sergei Lavrov.

他说：“我们深信，而且迄今没有人质疑我们的看法，这就是，如果乌克兰当局继续无视东南地区的利益，乌克兰的局势就稳定不下来，就不可能开始全国性对话。”

Moscow now has thousands of troops massed along its border with eastern Ukraine. And although it insists it has no intention of invading, Moscow says it reserves the right to defend ethnic² Russians in the country.

罗斯目前在靠近东乌克兰的边境地区陈兵数万。尽管莫斯科坚称无意入侵，但却表示要保留保护乌克兰俄罗斯族的权利。

Analyst³ Irina Tymczyszyn says Russia has a very clear mandate⁴.

有分析人士认为，俄罗斯有非常明确的要求。

“The Russian strategy appears to be to restore the Soviet⁵ Union as it was before the collapse⁶, before 1991, and possibly more. I think Putin considers himself to be the collector of Russian lands, and by Russia he unfortunately means countries like the Ukraine, because Russia has not recognized to date Ukraine as a separate state," said Tymczyszyn.

乌克兰英国城市俱乐部分析员蒂姆申琴说：“俄罗斯的战略似乎是恢复1991年解体之前的苏联，可能比这更多。我想，普京自认为是收复俄罗斯土地的人，但遗憾的是，所谓俄罗斯，在他看来就意味着乌克兰等国家，因为俄罗斯从来都没有承认乌克兰是另一个国家。”

In Kyiv, a meeting between the parliament and communist deputies ended in a scuffle, highlighting the high level of tensions within the country’s borders.

在基辅，议会和共产党代表之间的一次会议以拳脚相加告终，凸显了乌克兰国内的高度紧张气氛。

"Pre-planned and coordinated⁷ provocation⁸ against our country has started. It was organized by the intelligence services in the Russian Federation," said Acting⁹ Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov.

乌克兰代总统图尔奇诺夫说：“针对我国的有预谋、有协调的挑衅已经开始。这是俄罗斯联邦情报机构组织的。”

But the head of the Communist Party in Ukraine countered that comment, blaming inaction by Ukrainian officials who they say ignored the needs of the people.

"The most important thing is to answer the question what exactly the Ukrainian authorities did in order to prevent these events in the asset," said Petro Symonenko. "Let’s start with analyzing¹⁰ the demands of the citizens - who remain the people of Ukraine - living in Luhansk, Donetsk and other regions they came to the streets with, and what rights they want to defend?

In the flashpoint town of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, residents also remain split.

在局势紧张的东乌克兰城市哈尔科夫，居民意见分歧。

"We demand a referendum. And the gang which is now meeting at the parliament should not impose their opinion on us," said a protester.

"The situation we have in Kharkiv now is being escalated¹¹ solely¹² by the Russian side. It is in Russia’s interest to return Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk under its control, it is in its interest," said another.

Analyst Tymczyszyn agrees:

"Right now, the West is sending a message which is very different, just indicating consistent quiet dismay over Putin’s actions. For him, it means he can go ahead and do as he pleases because he does not feel the response will be sufficiently¹³ damaging to him," she said.

But the political chess game continues to be played out on the border of Ukraine and Russia with no clear winner in sight. Though analysts¹⁴ say it is clear that Putin is determined¹⁵ to be the victor, and likely before the May 25th elections in Ukraine.