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叙利亚石油资助伊拉克激进组织

The Sunni militant¹ group that has taken over a large area of Iraq has financed its operations in part through an unlikely alliance with one of its enemies - the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

占领了伊拉克大片领土的逊尼派激进组织的行动资金部分来自它的一个敌人。“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”组织和本是不同戴天的叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的政权结成了一个不可思议的联盟。

The militant fighters of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) want to impose strict Muslim rule throughout the region, and eventually the entire world. Their initial push in western Iraq 10 years ago failed, and many of them crossed the border to fight the Syrian government.

“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国” (ISIL)的激进武装分子要在整个地区实行严酷的伊斯兰律法，并最终在全世界实现他们的目标。他们10年前在伊拉克的头一次行动以失败告终，很多人越过边境，投入了反对叙利亚政府的战斗。

In the process, they took over some Syrian oil facilities, potentially a huge source of revenue. But they could only find one customer.

在此过程中，他们占领了叙利亚的一些石油设施，这有可能成为巨大的财源。不过，他们只找到一家买主：叙利亚政权。

And, according to Shiraz Maher of London’s King’s College, that customer was their enemy, the Syrian regime.

伦敦国王学院的希拉兹·马海尔指出，叙利亚政权本是他们的敌人。

“It will act in its own self-interest, and that will mean cutting a Faustian Pact² with the fighters of ISIS [ISIL] for the time being," Maher said. "Both sides are being very pragmatic about that.”

“叙利亚政权将出于自身利益行事，这意味着此刻跟ISIL的武装分子达成魔鬼交易,”他说，“双方在这个问题上都采取实用主义。”

Now, the militants³ have set their sights on Iraq’s Beiji oil facility, potentially providing another source of revenue to further expand their operations.

如今，激进分子又把目标对准了伊拉克拜吉的石油设施，这有可能为他们开辟另一个财源，进一步扩充他们的行动。

But, in order to keep such facilities going, they need the cooperation of local tribes, and in Iraq they alienated⁴ those tribes 10 years ago with their extremism and brutality⁵. That turned the tide of the Iraq war against them.\

但是，为了保持这些设施的运作，他们需要和当地部落合作。而十年前，他们的极端主义和残暴行为疏远了那些部落，伊拉克战局因此朝着对激进分子不利的方向扭转。

So Maher says they’ve come back with a new approach.

于是，马海尔说，他们带着新的套路卷土重来。

“They’ve gone into these areas and they’ve said, ‘We’ve been told to forgive you because you were led astray by the United States. You were led astray by [Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-] Maliki and have they delivered on their promises? No, they haven’t. They betrayed you and we’re coming back with a gentle handm,’” he said.

他说：“他们到这些地方说：我们被告知要宽恕你们，因为是美国、是马利基领着你们误入歧途。他们兑现自己的诺言吗？没有。他们背叛了你们。而我们又回来了，并向你们伸出慈爱之手。”

A gentle hand toward Sunnis, perhaps, but the opposite toward Shi’ites, particularly those in the Iraqi Army, which many Sunnis see as an instrument of repression⁶.

对逊尼派伸出慈爱之手也许意味着对什叶派、特别是那些在伊拉克军队服役的什叶派下狠手。很多逊尼派把政府军视为压迫工具。

The militants hope their new approach will turn the tide of the current Iraq fighting in their favor, and put them in a stronger position in Syria, too.

激进分子希望，他们的新套路会让他们在伊拉克节节取胜，并且加强他们在叙利亚的地位。

If the plan works, the group will have significant allies, territory and revenue it could use to launch attacks on the West, warns terrorism expert Raffaello Pantucci of the Royal United Services Institute.

如果他们的计谋成功，激进组织将拥有重要的盟友、地盘和财政收入，并且有可能用这些资源攻击西方。

“The group may see itself as needing to sort of stamp its authority and show that it is a capable group and the new inheritor of the banner of global jihad," Pantucci said. "And part of that might be to launch an attack against the West.”

皇家联合军种研究所的恐怖主义问题专家拉菲埃洛·潘图奇警告说：“这个组织可能会认为，他们需要亮出某种权威性，显示他们是一个有能力的组织，是全球圣战大旗的最新继承者。因此，他们有可能针对西方发动攻击。”

Experts differ on whether the militants will do that in the near term, or focus on consolidating⁷ their gains in Syria and Iraq.  But the experts agree on two things - in the long term the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant wants to be a global power, and, with the resources it is acquiring, the West and its allies face a difficult job to stop it.

在近期之内，这些激进分子究竟是会进攻西方，还是一门心思巩固他们在叙利亚和伊拉克的战果，各方专家看法不一。不过，专家们有两点共识，那就是，“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”希望成为全球强权，而且，随着他们掌握了资源，西方及其盟国要想遏止他们的势力，绝非易事。